In a high-stakes diplomatic meeting on Thursday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared that Iran would not negotiate under “intimidation” regarding its nuclear program, setting a determined tone in discussions with Rafael Grossi, the head of the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The dialogue unfolded just weeks before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is set to retake office in January, an impending shift that casts new uncertainties over the future of nuclear agreements and geopolitical stability in the Middle East.
Grossi, emphasizing the urgency of dialogue, remarked that achieving “results” in nuclear talks with Iran is crucial to preventing escalating tensions in an already volatile region marked by Israeli military actions against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. “Iranian nuclear installations should not be attacked,” Grossi asserted, referencing recent rhetoric from Israeli officials who have hinted at potential military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
The IAEA chief posted on social media platform X, referring to his meeting with Araghchi as “indispensable” for the future of Iran’s nuclear engagement. Meanwhile, Araghchi reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to negotiating but warned that it would not tolerate pressure or intimidation tactics that compromise its sovereignty.
Araghchi, a key architect of the 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and major world powers, has seen the agreement face numerous challenges since the U.S., under then-President Trump, withdrew from the deal in 2018. The original pact placed limitations on Iran’s nuclear enrichment levels, capping uranium enrichment at 3.65%, far below the threshold necessary for nuclear weapons. However, after the U.S. exit and imposition of stringent sanctions, Iran incrementally backed away from these limits, prompting international concern as the country began enriching uranium to levels as high as 60%—much closer to weapons-grade.
Now, with Trump’s re-election imminent, Iran’s nuclear stance is under intense scrutiny. In response to U.S. sanctions, Iran has restricted access for IAEA inspectors and removed certain surveillance measures from its nuclear facilities. As Grossi seeks to negotiate new arrangements, Araghchi’s stance underscores Iran’s position: the nation is open to talks, but only on equal footing.
In a backdrop of ongoing regional strife, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz recently intensified his stance, asserting that Iran’s nuclear facilities were more vulnerable than ever to pre-emptive strikes. Katz described this period as an “opportunity to achieve our most important goal,” in what was widely interpreted as a call for heightened Israeli intervention to deter Iran’s nuclear advancements. Grossi, however, voiced concerns, urging that diplomacy and international frameworks remain the tools to address nuclear issues, warning that any attack on Iranian nuclear sites could further destabilize the region.
Nevertheless, analysts suggest that Trump’s return may encourage Israel to take a more aggressive posture, given his administration’s historically supportive stance toward Israeli defense initiatives. During Trump’s first term, the U.S. pursued a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, reimposing sanctions and withdrawing from diplomatic agreements that critics argued were essential to regional stability. The ramifications of this strategy, particularly in terms of Iran’s nuclear program, have remained a contentious issue in global security circles.
Following Thursday’s discussions, Araghchi posted on X, calling the meeting with Grossi “important & straightforward,” but reiterating Iran’s non-negotiable stance against “intimidation” in any future nuclear negotiations. He stated that Iran remains willing to negotiate based on “national interest” and “inalienable rights.”
The IAEA chief’s visit also included talks with Mohammad Eslami, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, who reinforced Tehran’s position on countering potential punitive measures from the IAEA. At a joint press conference, Eslami warned that Iran would take “immediate countermeasures” against any sanctions imposed by the IAEA’s governing board. He stressed, “Any interventionist resolution in the nuclear affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran will definitely be met with immediate countermeasures.”
Grossi’s diplomatic trip marks his second to Iran this year, but the stakes are now higher than ever as he faces a unique challenge: upholding the IAEA’s mandate to monitor and ensure non-proliferation while balancing the high tensions that dominate U.S.-Iranian relations. He is scheduled to visit uranium enrichment sites at Fordo and Natanz on Friday to gain a comprehensive understanding of Iran’s current nuclear capabilities and enrichment processes.
Trump’s 2017-2021 term saw an extensive re-imposition of sanctions on Iran, targeting its economy and applying pressure in a bid to renegotiate the nuclear deal with even stricter terms. Iran responded to these sanctions by incrementally retracting its commitments to the nuclear pact, citing the U.S.’s unilateral withdrawal from the accord as a breach of trust. In the years since, Iran has escalated its uranium enrichment levels, a move that has drawn international concern and intensified calls for a renewed diplomatic solution.
The IAEA reported that Iran now possesses an extensive stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%, sparking fears over the potential for weaponization, despite Iran’s insistence that its program remains peaceful. Grossi has noted that while Iran is not yet at a stage of weaponization, its current levels are uncomfortably close, thus making the diplomatic approach imperative to halting further escalation.
The Iranian government has emphasized that it was the U.S., not Iran, which first departed from the 2015 agreement, a stance echoed by government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani, who stated, “Mr. Trump once tried the path of maximum pressure and saw that this path did not work.” Mohajerani’s remarks come amid widespread speculation about Iran’s likely course of action if negotiations fail under renewed U.S. pressures.
As Grossi continues his engagements, he plans to meet with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who won office in July on a platform aimed at restoring Iran’s global relations and exploring avenues for re-establishing the 2015 accord. Pezeshkian’s administration has shown a moderate approach, yet all efforts to revitalize the deal have so far yielded limited success, compounded by U.S. sanctions and regional resistance.
The IAEA has faced mounting challenges in conducting oversight of Iran’s nuclear program, with Tehran having disconnected certain surveillance devices integral to monitoring activities at various nuclear sites. The agency has long pressed Iran for full cooperation, advocating transparency to allay international fears. Grossi’s visit to Fordo and Natanz aims to yield insights into Iran’s uranium enrichment processes, helping the IAEA establish a clearer understanding of Iran’s program status and compliance.
Tehran’s nuclear ambitions date back to the 1950s when the United States underpinned Iran’s early efforts through civil cooperation agreements with the country’s then-monarch, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Iran signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in 1970, which mandates IAEA oversight of nuclear materials to ensure peaceful use. However, in recent years, Iranian hardliners have urged for a re-evaluation of this policy, urging the government to potentially reconsider Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s longstanding religious edict against nuclear weapons in response to what they perceive as mounting existential threats.
