As the U.S. prepares for another term under Donald Trump, Iranian officials are making calculated moves to mitigate what they expect will be a renewed era of aggressive American foreign policy toward Tehran. Signals of diplomacy have emerged amidst escalating tensions, with Iran reaching out through purported olive branches and strategic backchannel engagements.
Key developments include a reported meeting between Elon Musk and Iran’s U.N. ambassador, cease-fire negotiations involving Hezbollah, and efforts to reengage with the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog. Analysts and U.S. officials, however, remain skeptical about Iran’s intentions, noting that any attempt at rapprochement must overcome a legacy of hostility, mistrust, and recent provocations.
On Monday, Elon Musk reportedly met with Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, sparking speculation about a behind-the-scenes effort to defuse tensions. Iranian officials, according to The New York Times, framed the meeting as a gesture to explore ways to reduce hostilities. Neither Musk’s representatives nor Trump’s campaign provided definitive comments, with Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung declining to address the matter.
Such diplomatic gestures are not confined to unconventional channels. Iran has also invited Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), for a visit — the first since May. Grossi’s trip followed months of stalled negotiations over Iran’s de facto ban on international inspections of its nuclear facilities. This overture underscores Tehran’s intent to present itself as open to diplomacy, even as skepticism persists among Western analysts.
Iran’s outreach comes against the backdrop of heightened regional instability. Cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hezbollah, an Iran-aligned group, have gained momentum following months of conflict. U.S. officials believe that Tehran holds significant sway over Hezbollah’s decisions, making any cease-fire contingent on Iran’s approval.
However, Iran’s military and political position in the region has been weakened. Israel’s military campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon have inflicted heavy losses on Iranian-backed militias. This diminished influence could push Tehran to seek a diplomatic reprieve — or, conversely, double down on its confrontational posture to reassert its regional dominance.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, cautioned that Iran’s outreach might be less about genuine reconciliation and more about stalling tactics. “It’s likely that anything Tehran could use to dampen or slow maximum pressure can and will be used, from diplomacy to denial and deception,” he said.
Analysts widely predict that a second Trump administration would revive his “maximum pressure” strategy, characterized by crippling sanctions and staunch support for Israel. Trump’s first term saw significant escalations in U.S.-Iran tensions, including the 2018 withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the 2020 assassination of Qassem Soleimani, a top Iranian military commander.
Yet Trump’s unpredictable and transactional nature adds complexity to the equation. While he has appointed Iran hawks to key positions, some of his advisors advocate for selective restraint. This duality presents Tehran with both challenges and opportunities as it navigates the uncertain dynamics of Trump’s foreign policy team.
Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Quincy Institute, argued that Iran may view this moment as a chance to learn from past mistakes. Tehran rebuffed overtures from Trump’s allies after his 2016 election, a decision Parsi believes hurt Iran’s ability to negotiate. “They rejected him for a variety of reasons,” Parsi said. “It left Trump in a situation where it became much easier for the Israelis, for the neocons, for the hawks, to convince Trump the only way to get a deal with the Iranians is that you have to sanction them to death.”
Iran’s efforts to reach out to the Trump transition team face significant hurdles. Chief among them is the lingering animosity stemming from Soleimani’s killing. In recent years, Iranian operatives have allegedly plotted to assassinate former Trump officials involved in the airstrike, including ex-National Security Advisor John Bolton and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Such actions have hardened attitudes within Trump’s circle, making diplomacy an uphill battle.
“They can try all they want,” said a former Trump administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “We tend to remember things like you trying to kill us, no matter how much you pretend to play nice in diplomatic circles.”
Further complicating matters is the current state of U.S.-Iran relations under President Joe Biden. While Biden has attempted to reestablish a diplomatic framework, including indirect negotiations on a nuclear deal, Trump’s return to office would likely dismantle these efforts. Trump has already signaled his willingness to abandon Biden’s cautious approach and grant Israel greater leeway in its retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets.
The Middle East stands at a precarious crossroads as Iran braces for another Trump presidency. The ongoing war between Israel and Iran-backed militant groups in Gaza and Lebanon has exacerbated humanitarian crises while straining Tehran’s resources. Israel’s military operations have undermined the effectiveness of Iran’s proxies, forcing Tehran to recalibrate its regional strategy.
At the same time, U.S. officials worry that Iran may escalate its nuclear program in response to renewed pressure. Grossi’s visit to Tehran comes at a critical juncture, with the IAEA chief seeking to reinstate inspections and prevent further proliferation. Whether Tehran uses this moment to demonstrate compliance or advance its ambitions remains a pivotal question.
Iran’s recent maneuvers highlight the delicate balancing act it faces. On one hand, Tehran seeks to reduce international isolation and economic hardship exacerbated by years of sanctions. On the other, it must maintain a posture of strength to deter domestic unrest and signal resilience to its adversaries.
Iran’s leaders are likely calculating that even symbolic overtures could provide breathing room under a second Trump administration. By engaging figures like Grossi and purportedly exploring informal talks with Trump allies, Tehran hopes to reshape the narrative and influence the course of future negotiations.
However, these efforts are unlikely to change the fundamental dynamics of U.S.-Iran relations. For Trump, whose first term was defined by hardline policies and provocative rhetoric, concessions to Tehran would require substantial shifts in both strategic and political calculus.
