A tense standoff is shaping up at the ongoing United Nations climate talks in Azerbaijan, as negotiators from around the world clash over the future of fossil fuels. At the heart of the disagreement is whether countries should recommit to the historic pledge made at last year’s COP28 summit in Dubai to transition away from fossil fuels. The debate threatens to overshadow other critical discussions and highlights the persistent tension between global climate ambitions and economic realities for fossil fuel-dependent nations.
European and US negotiators are urging countries to reaffirm the commitments made last year, which include accelerating renewable energy deployment and enhancing energy efficiency. These measures are seen as vital for maintaining momentum in the fight against climate change. However, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, is leading opposition efforts. Through a mix of delaying tactics and outright blocking maneuvers, Saudi negotiators aim to weaken the language surrounding fossil fuel phase-downs, according to insiders.
The disagreement comes at a critical juncture for COP29, which is chaired by Azerbaijan, a country heavily reliant on fossil fuel exports. The stakes are high: a failure to reassert last year’s commitments could be seen as a retreat from the progress made in Dubai, where for the first time in nearly three decades of UN climate talks, fossil fuels were directly addressed in a final agreement.
Last year’s breakthrough agreement marked a significant shift in the global climate dialogue. Spearheaded by the UAE as the host nation, the pact called for a “transition away” from fossil fuels, a phrase that required extensive negotiations to secure buy-in from oil-producing nations, including Saudi Arabia. For many developed and climate-vulnerable nations, the inclusion of this language was a long-awaited acknowledgment of the primary driver of climate change.
This year, however, the unity forged in Dubai appears fragile. Climate advocates fear that allowing the commitments to lapse or be diluted would undermine the credibility of the entire COP process.
The fissures became evident early in the conference, with debates over whether — and how — last year’s commitments should be revisited. Saudi Arabia has characterized the Dubai agreement as a flexible menu of options, allowing countries to prioritize actions that align with their national circumstances. Under this interpretation, nations can choose to focus on specific goals, such as tripling global renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency rates, or phasing down coal power, rather than pursuing all objectives simultaneously.
The US, EU, and other proponents of more aggressive climate action reject this view. They argue that the commitments represent a unified strategy requiring comprehensive implementation. This dispute over interpretation has set the stage for a broader confrontation about the role of fossil fuels in the global energy mix.
While the fossil fuel debate dominates headlines, the talks in Azerbaijan are also grappling with another critical issue: climate finance. Negotiators aim to replace the current $100 billion annual pledge, established over a decade ago, with a far more ambitious financing framework to support developing nations. Experts estimate that more than $1 trillion per year is needed to help poorer countries transition to green economies and build resilience against climate impacts.
Wealthy nations, including the US and European countries, are advocating for broader participation in climate finance, with a particular focus on wealthy Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia. These countries, which have historically benefited from fossil fuel exports, are now being asked to contribute more significantly to the global climate effort.
The negotiations are unfolding against a backdrop of political uncertainty, including the potential return of Donald Trump to the US presidency. Trump’s administration has signaled a commitment to ramping up fossil fuel production, a stance that could complicate global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Meanwhile, all countries face a February 2025 deadline to submit updated national climate strategies, as required by the 2015 Paris Agreement. These strategies are crucial for keeping the world on track to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels — a target scientists warn is essential to prevent catastrophic climate impacts.
The growing divide over fossil fuel language has drawn sharp criticism from climate-vulnerable nations and activists. Fiji’s Deputy Prime Minister, Biman Prasad, emphasized the importance of last year’s agreement, stating, “We must ensure this commitment is not lost in translation and is reinforced in all future decisions.” For small island nations like Fiji, which face existential threats from rising sea levels, any backtracking on fossil fuel commitments is seen as a betrayal.
As COP29’s host, Azerbaijan finds itself in a challenging position. The country’s economy is heavily reliant on fossil fuel exports, and its president, Ilham Aliyev, has described oil and gas as a “gift of God.” Despite these economic interests, Azerbaijan’s presidency must act as a neutral broker to facilitate consensus among participating nations.
This balancing act reflects the broader struggle within the COP process: reconciling the need for urgent climate action with the economic realities of fossil fuel dependence in many regions.
As COP29 enters its second week, the conference is poised for intense negotiations. Climate ministers are arriving to address unresolved issues and provide the political impetus needed to finalize agreements.
- Reducing negotiating text: Dozens of pages of draft text must be condensed into actionable agreements.
- Fossil fuel language: Finding a compromise on the interpretation and inclusion of last year’s commitments will be a central challenge.
- Climate finance: Establishing a new funding framework that meets the needs of developing nations without alienating wealthier contributors.
Closed-door meetings and trade-offs will dominate the coming days, with the outcome of these discussions likely to shape the trajectory of global climate policy for years to come.
The disagreements at COP29 underscore the complexities of the global climate fight. While the historic agreement in Dubai marked a significant step forward, the challenge of turning commitments into action remains daunting. As negotiators navigate these tensions, the stakes could not be higher: the decisions made in Azerbaijan will have far-reaching implications for the planet’s future.
