Donald Trump is set to revive his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran when he reenters the White House in January, according to sources familiar with his transition plans. The strategy aims to cripple Tehran’s ability to fund its regional proxies and restrict its nuclear ambitions, British newspaper The Financial Times reported.
During his first term, Trump abandoned the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Iran nuclear deal, and imposed hundreds of sanctions on Tehran. This resulted in severe economic strain on Iran, leading to plummeting oil exports and a weakened economy. Now, with regional tensions escalating after the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas on Israel, Trump’s team is gearing up for an even more aggressive stance.
“He’s determined to reinstitute a maximum pressure strategy to bankrupt Iran as soon as possible,” said a national security expert familiar with the Trump transition. The immediate focus will be on crippling Iran’s oil exports, its primary revenue source.
Iran’s oil exports have surged from 400,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2020 to over 1.5 million b/d in 2024, largely due to sales to China, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency. Trump’s team is reportedly drafting executive orders that could drastically reduce these figures. If implemented, these measures could cut Iran’s oil exports to a fraction of their current levels, striking a severe blow to its already fragile economy.
“If they really go whole hog…they could knock Iran’s oil exports back to a few hundred thousand barrels per day,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy and a former energy adviser to George W. Bush. “It’s their main source of earnings, and their economy is already much more fragile than it was back then.”
The planned sanctions come at a volatile time in the Middle East, where Iran’s influence has been a growing concern for the U.S. and its allies. Tehran’s support for militant groups, including Hamas and Hezbollah, has drawn scrutiny amid increasing hostilities. Both groups have been implicated in attacks against Israel, with Israel and Iran also exchanging missile fire in recent months.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded strongly to reports of Trump’s planned sanctions, warning on X (formerly Twitter): “Attempting ‘Maximum Pressure 2.0’ will only result in ‘Maximum Defeat 2.0.’ Better idea: try ‘Maximum Wisdom’ — for the benefit of all.”
Despite the hardline strategy, Trump has hinted at a willingness to negotiate with Iran. “We have to make a deal, because the consequences are impossible. We have to make a deal,” he stated during his election campaign in September. However, people close to the transition team suggest that the terms Trump envisions will be far tougher than those under the 2015 nuclear deal.
The goal, according to his advisers, is to push Iran back to the negotiating table. “We’re hoping that it will be an incentive to get them to agree to negotiations in good faith that would stabilize relations and even someday normalize them,” said a national security expert.
Trump’s foreign policy team for his new term includes figures known for their hawkish stances on Iran. Marco Rubio has been nominated as Secretary of State, and Mike Waltz, known for his critical views on Tehran, is set to become National Security Adviser. Waltz has been vocal about reinvigorating the pressure campaign, emphasizing the need to recreate the conditions of economic and political strain Iran faced during Trump’s first term.
“Just four years ago…their currency was tanking, they were truly on the back foot…we need to get back to that posture,” Waltz said during an October event at the Atlantic Council.
While the Trump administration is preparing for an aggressive start, analysts warn that achieving the intended results may not be straightforward. Iran has significantly advanced its nuclear program, enriching uranium close to weapons-grade levels since the collapse of the JCPOA. Meanwhile, China’s continued purchase of Iranian crude presents a challenge for enforcing sanctions. The U.S. would likely need to impose secondary sanctions on Chinese entities to effectively choke off Iran’s oil revenues.
Mike Waltz, in his previous role as a congressman, supported legislation to impose such secondary sanctions. However, the bill did not pass the Senate, highlighting the potential hurdles Trump may face in Congress.
Experts caution that Trump’s maximum pressure strategy could lead to unintended consequences, including further escalation of regional tensions. Iran has shown resilience in the face of sanctions, using its regional proxies to strike at U.S. allies and interests in the region. The move could also heighten U.S.-China tensions if Beijing resists efforts to curtail its purchases of Iranian oil.
Despite these risks, Trump’s advisers believe the campaign is necessary to curb Tehran’s ambitions and restore U.S. leverage in the region. “It’s their main source of earnings and their economy is already much more fragile than it was back then,” McNally emphasized.
