U.S. President-elect Donald Trump regarding Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. The Kremlin appears committed to advancing its military and strategic objectives in Ukraine, calculating that a delay in negotiations will strengthen its hand. 

Meanwhile, Trump has shown eagerness to broker a peace deal before his January 20 inauguration, potentially to enhance his reputation as a “deal-maker.” However, Moscow views this timing as premature, believing it could undermine its efforts to consolidate territorial and strategic gains.

From Moscow’s perspective, engaging in negotiations before Trump’s inauguration would disrupt ongoing military operations. The Kremlin’s strategy includes the gradual seizure of Ukrainian territory, persistent airstrikes targeting critical infrastructure, and fostering socio-economic instability in Ukraine during the harsh winter months. By stalling talks, Moscow aims to wear down Ukrainian resistance and morale, setting conditions that would favor Russian terms in any future negotiations.

The Kremlin is likely to wait until after Trump assumes office, anticipating that its military position in Ukraine will improve by then. This delay allows Moscow to exploit Trump’s apparent eagerness for a deal, potentially using it as leverage against the incoming U.S. administration.

Putin’s Stipulations for Dialogue

Shortly after Trump’s election victory on November 5, Russian President Vladimir Putin hinted at his willingness to engage in talks under specific conditions. Speaking at a Valdai Club event, Putin praised Trump’s resilience during the campaign, describing him as having a “courageous, manly reaction” to challenges. While expressing readiness to restore U.S.-Russia relations, Putin stated that the initiative for talks must come from Washington, asserting, “The ball is in the U.S. court.”

Further elaborations by Russian officials, including Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, outlined a set of conditions for high-level discussions. These terms, though not new, were emphasized to prepare Trump’s team for potential negotiations.

• Territorial Preconditions: Russia insists on regaining full control over its Kursk oblast and seeks recognition of its claims over the four annexed Ukrainian provinces as part of Russia’s “historic lands.”
• Neutrality of Ukraine: Putin reiterated that post-war relations would depend on Ukraine’s neutrality, precluding its membership in NATO or the European Union. Moscow views NATO’s open-door policy as a direct threat to its “historical territories.”
• Reduction in Western Support for Ukraine: Lavrov urged Western countries, led by the U.S., to curtail military and financial support to Ukraine. He argued that such a shift is essential to compel Kyiv into direct dialogue with Moscow.
• Revisiting the Istanbul Documents: Moscow insists that talks begin with the “Istanbul documents” drafted during negotiations in early 2022. These proposals, heavily influenced by Russia, were ultimately rejected due to fundamental disagreements over security guarantees.
• Reversal of Kyiv’s Policies: Russia demands that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rescind his October 2022 decree banning direct political negotiations with Moscow.
• Broadening the Scope of Talks: Putin emphasized that discussions should go beyond a mere ceasefire to address long-term cooperation between Russia and Ukraine, framing the two nations as “fraternal” despite the conflict.
• The Kremlin’s approach underscores its preference for a strategic pause before engaging with the Trump administration. This delay serves several purposes:
• Consolidation of Gains: By prolonging its military campaign, Russia aims to fortify its position on the ground, making any future negotiations more favorable to its objectives.
• Political Leverage: Moscow perceives Trump’s enthusiasm for a deal as a potential vulnerability. By waiting until Trump takes office, Russia can exert greater influence over the terms and scope of negotiations.
• Testing U.S. Intentions: Russian officials have expressed skepticism about Trump’s campaign rhetoric, describing his promises of a quick settlement as unrealistic. By waiting, Moscow can gauge the incoming administration’s actual policy direction.
• Shaping the Narrative: By presenting its conditions early, Moscow seeks to set the agenda for future talks, framing them as bilateral negotiations with Ukraine rather than a multilateral effort involving Western powers.

U.S.-Russia Relations

Trump’s willingness to engage with Putin contrasts sharply with the approach of the outgoing Biden administration, which prioritized military and financial support for Ukraine. The prospect of a Trump-Putin dialogue raises questions about the future of U.S. support for Kyiv and the broader Western response to Russian aggression.

While Trump’s administration may pursue a pragmatic approach to de-escalate the conflict, Moscow’s demands suggest that any agreement will come at a significant cost to Ukrainian sovereignty. Key issues, such as the status of annexed territories and Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, remain deeply contentious and unlikely to be resolved quickly.

Ukraine

Ukraine faces mounting pressure as the Kremlin intensifies its campaign of territorial expansion and infrastructure destruction. With the war entering its second winter, the humanitarian situation is worsening, particularly in areas affected by Russian strikes on energy and housing infrastructure.

The prospect of reduced Western support, should Trump align with Moscow’s demands, poses an existential challenge for Kyiv. Ukrainian leaders have steadfastly refused to negotiate under duress, emphasizing the importance of sovereignty and territorial integrity. However, continued military and economic support from the West will be critical to sustaining their position in the face of Russia’s escalating aggression.

For Moscow, delaying talks with Trump is a calculated gamble. By strengthening its military and political position, the Kremlin hopes to secure terms that legitimize its territorial claims and weaken Western unity. However, this strategy risks prolonging a conflict that has already caused immense human and economic suffering. For Trump, the prospect of brokering a peace deal offers an opportunity to redefine U.S.-Russia relations and enhance his diplomatic legacy.