Millions of Indonesians will head to polling stations in what analysts describe as a significant political event for the world’s third-largest democracy. The elections will shape Indonesia’s political landscape for the next five years, as voters elect 545 regional leaders, including 37 governors, 93 mayors, and 415 regents.
The stakes are high for both President Prabowo Subianto’s Advance Indonesia Coalition (KIM Plus) and the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) led by former president Megawati Soekarnoputri. With the campaigning period spanning from Sept 25 to Nov 23, the stage is set for an intense showdown between the two dominant political factions and independent candidates.
These elections are critical for the Prabowo administration, as the results will affect how well the president’s policies are implemented at the regional level. With President Prabowo likely seeking a second term in 2029, these elections could be a barometer of his re-election prospects.
“If a regional leader comes from the opposition camp, there is a high chance that region will not support decisions and programmes made by the Prabowo administration on a national level,” said Hendri Satrio, a political analyst from Paramadina University in Jakarta.
For the PDI-P, the elections are a chance to regain momentum after a poor showing in the February presidential race, where their candidate, Ganjar Pranowo, finished third with just 16.5% of the vote. However, the PDI-P’s strong performance in the legislative elections earlier this year—where they retained their status as the largest party in parliament—has positioned them as formidable contenders in these regional contests.
Former president Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, remains a central figure despite no longer holding office. Widodo, a PDI-P member turned kingmaker, played a pivotal role in Prabowo’s presidential win, with his eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, serving as Prabowo’s vice president.
Jokowi’s influence will also be tested in these elections, especially in North Sumatra, where his son-in-law, Bobby Nasution, is running for governor against PDI-P-backed incumbent Edy Rachmayadi. The outcome could determine Jokowi’s sway in shaping Indonesia’s political future, especially as he diverged from the PDI-P’s agenda during the February presidential race.
The populous provinces of West, East, and Central Java are critical to the elections, collectively home to nearly 130 million people. These regions are expected to determine the broader national trend.
- West Java
Dedi Mulyadi, the candidate from the Prabowo-backed coalition, is poised to secure a landslide victory, with polls suggesting he could garner up to 71.5% of the vote. His commanding lead over three rivals reflects the coalition’s strong foothold in the province. - East Java
Khofifah Indar Parawansa, the incumbent governor and another Prabowo coalition candidate, is predicted to win with around 55.1% of the vote. Her leadership during a challenging term has resonated with many voters, though she faces two strong challengers. - Central Java
Central Java presents one of the tightest races. Prabowo- and Jokowi-supported Ahmad Luthfi is locked in a neck-and-neck battle with PDI-P-backed former military chief Andika Perkasa. Analysts suggest this race could go either way, with its outcome carrying symbolic significance for both coalitions. - Jakarta
The gubernatorial race in the capital city is particularly significant, as Jakarta’s governorship is considered one of the country’s most prestigious political positions. The contest pits PDI-P- and Anies-backed Pramono Anung against Prabowo- and Jokowi-supported Ridwan Kamil. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote, the race will proceed to a run-off in 2025.
A notable feature of these elections is the high percentage of undecided voters, which experts attribute to election fatigue and dissatisfaction with the candidates’ proposed solutions. In Jakarta, 11–15% of voters remain undecided, while in West Java, the figure is around 17%. East and Central Java report even higher rates of undecided voters, with figures reaching 22.8% and 43.1%, respectively, according to recent surveys by Kompas.
“No one seems to be offering viable solutions to these problems,” said Adi Prayitno, a political science lecturer at Jakarta’s Syarif Hidayatullah Islamic University. “That’s why the number of undecided voters is high.”
This voter indecision could dampen turnout, despite the General Elections Commission (KPU) projecting an optimistic participation rate of 82%. In February’s presidential election, the turnout was 81.7%.
The two-month campaign period saw candidates engage in rallies, door-to-door outreach, and lobbying efforts. Issues such as inflation, unemployment, and economic disparity dominated the discourse, while Jakarta’s voters focused on urban challenges like traffic congestion, flooding, and air pollution.
However, the elections have been marred by allegations of corruption and vote-buying. On Sunday, Bengkulu governor Rohidin Mersyah was arrested on charges of extortion and accused of coercing subordinates into contributing to his campaign. Investigators seized over 7 billion rupiah (approximately US$440,000) in various currencies during the operation.
“This reflects a larger trend of vote-buying ahead of the elections,” said Corruption Eradication Commission deputy chairman Alexander Marwata. The commission has reportedly received multiple tip-offs regarding similar cases.
If KIM Plus candidates dominate key provinces, Prabowo’s policy implementation will likely proceed more smoothly, bolstering his chances for re-election in 2029. Conversely, a strong PDI-P showing could signal a resurgence for the party, ensuring continued political rivalry.
The stakes extend beyond provincial leadership. These elections will determine the balance of power between Indonesia’s political factions and shape the dynamics of governance at both regional and national levels.
As polling stations open from 7 am to 1 pm local time across the country’s three time zones, independent pollsters and the General Elections Commission will begin compiling results from 3 pm onward. Unofficial “quick count” results are expected by 6 pm, though official results may take up to two weeks due to rigorous verification processes.
