- Myanmar’s Junta Chief Min Aung Hlaing Faces Potential ICC Arrest Warrant Over Rohingya Crackdown
The International Criminal Court (ICC) could issue an arrest warrant for Myanmar’s junta chief, Min Aung Hlaing, over his alleged role in crimes against humanity during the 2017 military crackdown on the Rohingya Muslim minority. The announcement marks a potential turning point in global accountability efforts for atrocities that forced hundreds of thousands of Rohingya to flee their homes.
In 2017, under Min Aung Hlaing’s command, Myanmar’s armed forces launched a brutal crackdown in Rakhine State. The operation, purportedly in response to attacks by Rohingya insurgents, spiraled into widespread violence involving systematic rape, arson, and mass killings. Approximately 750,000 Rohingya fled across the border into Bangladesh, recounting harrowing experiences of atrocities committed by the military.
The United Nations and other human rights organizations have described the events as a textbook example of ethnic cleansing and potential genocide. For years, efforts to hold those responsible accountable have been hindered by Myanmar’s non-recognition of international justice mechanisms and its strategic alliances with non-ICC member states like China and Russia.
On November 27, ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan announced that there were reasonable grounds to believe Min Aung Hlaing bore criminal responsibility for crimes against humanity during the 2017 crackdown. He requested judges to issue an arrest warrant for the junta leader, a significant step in the ICC’s investigation, which began in 2019.
“Renewed focus” on the plight of the Rohingya and the broader implications of global justice motivated the decision, Khan noted. The request underscores the importance of international accountability for leaders implicated in grave human rights abuses.
Min Aung Hlaing has maintained a prominent public presence in Myanmar since leading the 2021 military coup that toppled Aung San Suu Kyi’s civilian government. The coup plunged the country into deep political and economic turmoil, triggering a civil war that continues to devastate communities across Myanmar.
Despite the ICC’s legal reach, the junta chief’s potential arrest faces significant obstacles. Myanmar is not a member of the ICC, and the junta has outright dismissed the court’s authority. In a statement, the junta reiterated its position, saying, “The statements of the ICC have never been recognised by Myanmar.”
Moreover, Min Aung Hlaing’s limited international travel reduces the practical impact of an arrest warrant. Since the coup, his only reported foreign visits have been to China and Russia, both key allies and non-signatories to the ICC’s Rome Statute.
The ICC’s renewed focus has sparked mixed reactions among analysts and affected communities. Some see the move as a long-overdue step toward justice for the Rohingya, while others question its timing and broader implications.
“There is a whiff of political expediency in the prosecutor’s decision, using the Rohingya to appear balanced,” commented David Mathieson, an independent Myanmar analyst. His remarks come days after the ICC issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a former defense minister, and Hamas’ military chief, highlighting the court’s expanding scope of investigations.
For Rohingya refugees, the announcement offers a glimmer of hope. “The Rohingya were waiting for this,” said Senoara Khatun, a community school teacher in a Bangladeshi refugee camp. “I hope every criminal will be brought to justice by the ICC under the law.”
However, skepticism remains. Many refugees and human rights advocates fear the warrant’s issuance alone will not significantly alter the dire conditions faced by the displaced Rohingya or improve the broader human rights situation in Myanmar.
An ICC warrant could deepen the isolation of Myanmar’s junta while simultaneously emboldening its ties with authoritarian allies. Russian President Vladimir Putin, another ICC-indicted leader, has used his warrant as a symbol of defiance against Western-led institutions. Similarly, Min Aung Hlaing might leverage an ICC indictment to bolster his nationalist credentials among supporters and strengthen his regime’s narrative of sovereignty.
“An ICC warrant in Russia can be seen as a badge of honour,” said Richard Horsey of the International Crisis Group. “With Putin in particular, it could boost their camaraderie.”
This camaraderie is evident in the junta’s increasing reliance on Russian military support, including arms supplies and strategic counsel. China, too, remains a crucial ally, offering economic and diplomatic backing that shields Myanmar’s leadership from international condemnation.
While the warrant, if granted, would mark a milestone in international accountability, its tangible effects within Myanmar are uncertain. The junta continues to face allegations of fresh atrocities as it battles resistance forces. Human rights groups have documented the razing of villages, extrajudicial killings, and indiscriminate bombings targeting opposition strongholds.
According to Horsey, the ICC’s move “almost certainly won’t alter the behaviour of their forces on the ground.” Instead, some fear it could galvanize hardline nationalist factions within Myanmar, deepening divisions and resistance to international intervention.
Mathieson echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that the ICC’s actions come as “cold comfort” to those enduring ongoing violence across the country. “Atrocity crimes are being perpetrated every day, and impunity abounds,” he said. “International accountability is sluggish.”
