- Brisbane Braces for First Major Cyclone Impact Since 2017
A massive stretch of Australia’s east coast is preparing for the destructive force of Tropical Cyclone Alfred, a powerful storm system expected to bring life-threatening flooding, strong winds, and widespread disruption as it approaches landfall later this week.
As of Tuesday, Cyclone Alfred was located approximately 630 kilometers (391 miles) east of Brisbane, moving toward the Queensland and New South Wales (NSW) coastline. According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the storm is expected to intensify before making landfall late Thursday or early Friday as a Category 2 system.
Authorities have placed a watch zone covering a 550-kilometer stretch from Sandy Cape, Queensland, to Grafton, New South Wales, with cyclone and flood warnings issued across both states. Emergency services are urging residents to prepare for the worst storm event in years, as communities brace for potentially catastrophic rainfall, flash flooding, and damaging winds.
The precise location of landfall remains uncertain, but meteorologists warn that areas south of the cyclone’s center— including Brisbane, the Gold Coast, and NSW’s Northern Rivers region—will experience the worst conditions.
Jonathan How, a senior meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology, highlighted the seriousness of the event, stating:
“The location of landfall will be critical because we are expecting to see the worst of the impact, or the most significant impacts, on the southern flank of the cyclone.”
This means that heavily populated regions—including Brisbane (2.5 million residents), the Gold Coast, and major regional centers in northern NSW—could experience the full force of Alfred’s wind, rain, and storm surge.
The BoM has predicted extreme rainfall totals across southern Queensland and northern NSW, with:
400 millimeters (16 inches) of rain expected in many areas
Isolated pockets receiving up to 700 millimeters (27 inches)
These rainfall totals pose major flash flooding risks, with rivers expected to swell rapidly, inundating homes and businesses.
Adding to the danger, Cyclone Alfred is expected to be a slow-moving system, meaning the damaging winds and torrential rainfall will persist for an extended period, heightening the risk of severe flooding and prolonged power outages.
Authorities in Queensland and NSW are urging residents to take the warnings seriously, with emergency services already mobilizing flood rescue teams, power restoration crews, and emergency shelters.
Port of Brisbane Closure – The arrival of large vessels was suspended on Sunday, and port operations are expected to shut down entirely on Thursday and Friday.
Airline Disruptions – While airports in the region are still operating, Qantas and Virgin Australia have offered flexible rebooking options for affected passengers.
Public Transport Suspensions – The Brisbane City Council has suspended ferry services, while train and bus networks are on standby for possible disruptions.
Sandbagging Stations Open – Residents in Brisbane, Gold Coast, and northern NSW are filling thousands of sandbags as they prepare for potential floodwaters.
Schools and Businesses on Alert – The Queensland Department of Education has warned that some schools may be closed later this week, depending on the cyclone’s trajectory. Businesses are also advised to secure properties and prepare for possible closures.
State emergency services are urging residents to secure outdoor furniture, trim overhanging tree branches, and have an emergency kit ready, including batteries, food, water, and medications.
If Cyclone Alfred makes landfall near Brisbane, it will mark the first time since 2017 that the city has been directly impacted by a tropical storm.
In March 2017, the remnants of Cyclone Debbie wreaked havoc across Brisbane and southeast Queensland, dumping torrential rain, causing record-breaking floods, landslides, and extensive wind damage.
Brisbane, which has been selected to host the 2032 Olympic Games, has invested heavily in flood mitigation measures since Debbie. However, authorities remain concerned about Alfred’s potential to overwhelm drainage systems and flood-prone areas.
Australia’s insurance sector is also preparing for significant financial losses.
According to Matt Ingram, senior industry analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, major insurers Suncorp Group Ltd. and Insurance Australia Group Ltd. will likely take a financial hit due to Alfred’s impact.
Despite this, Suncorp reassured investors on Tuesday that it maintains a strong capital position. However, with flood damage expected to be extensive, homeowners are being urged to check their insurance policies.
Meteorologists and climate scientists warn that tropical cyclones in Australia are becoming more unpredictable due to global warming.
According to Climate Risk Group, as global temperatures climb, tropical cyclones are shifting further south, bringing extreme weather to areas not traditionally designed to withstand such events.
Southern Queensland and northern NSW are increasingly vulnerable, which will likely lead to higher insurance premiums and increased demand for flood-resilient infrastructure.
BoM meteorologist Steve Bernasconi noted that tropical cyclone warnings in NSW are exceedingly rare, stating:
“We don’t often have tropical cyclone watches and warnings in the New South Wales jurisdiction—the most recent one was back in 1990 with an event called Tropical Cyclone Nancy. And prior to that, it wasn’t until 1974 with Tropical Cyclone Zoe.”
With climate change driving more extreme weather events, experts warn that coastal communities in Queensland and NSW must prepare for more frequent, high-impact storms in the coming decades.
Authorities are closely monitoring Cyclone Alfred’s movements as it barrels toward Australia’s east coast.
Finalizing Evacuation Plans – Low-lying coastal areas may be issued evacuation orders if storm surge threats increase.
Monitoring Rainfall Totals – River levels are already rising rapidly, with major flood watches in place.
Coastal Erosion Risk – The combination of storm surge, high tides, and strong winds could devastate beaches and infrastructure along the Gold Coast and Byron Bay.
Possible Upgrade to Category 3 – While currently forecast as a Category 2 system, if Alfred strengthens further over warm ocean waters, it could intensify into a Category 3 cyclone, bringing even stronger winds and heavier rainfall.
Authorities are urging residents in the cyclone’s path to finalize preparations immediately.
Queensland Premier Steven Miles warned that the storm should not be underestimated, saying:
“We’ve seen the devastation that these storms can cause. If you are in a flood-prone area, now is the time to prepare.”
NSW Emergency Services Minister Jihad Dib echoed the warning, stating:
“We cannot afford to be complacent. If you live in an area that could be affected, follow emergency instructions, and do not take unnecessary risks.”
With Cyclone Alfred approaching rapidly, all eyes are on the Queensland and NSW coastlines as Australia prepares for yet another major weather disaster.
