A wave of anxiety has swept across Taiwan following the release of the trailer for Zero Day, a Netflix political thriller that depicts a chillingly plausible scenario: China first blockades, then invades one of Taiwan’s frontline islands, setting off a chain reaction of chaos. The series, set to air later this year, has already ignited fierce debate—some viewers praise it as a stark, realistic portrayal of Taiwan’s precarious geopolitical reality, while others criticize it for stoking unnecessary panic.
The show’s creator, Taiwanese filmmaker Hsin-mei Cheng, defended Zero Day in an interview with CNN. “Frankly, everyone has their own fears and imaginations about the war, but in our daily lives, many avoid it or even pretend it doesn’t exist,” she said. Cheng believes that the Taiwanese public has become desensitized to Beijing’s threats. “As the crisis looms larger over the past two years, I think it’s about time we take a hard look at it and open this Pandora’s box.”
However, Cheng’s decision to put Taiwan’s worst-case scenario on-screen has left many uneasy. With China ramping up military and political pressure on the self-governed island, the show’s depiction of invasion and mass hysteria could feel more like a grim premonition than mere fiction.
To outsiders, it may seem inconceivable that China would risk everything—its economic power, global reputation, and potential military losses—to invade Taiwan. After all, Beijing already enjoys immense economic and diplomatic leverage over the island. But history is littered with autocrats who have defied rational expectations.
Before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, many analysts dismissed the possibility of an outright war. “Surely he wouldn’t attack Ukraine,” they said of Vladimir Putin—until he did. Dictators like Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping operate within echo chambers, where sycophants suppress honest assessments of potential consequences. The same miscalculations that led Russia into a quagmire in Ukraine could lead Beijing into a catastrophic misstep in Taiwan.
While China has yet to launch a full-scale attack, many analysts argue that its war against Taiwan has already begun in the form of “gray-zone warfare.” The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) regularly conducts provocative air and naval maneuvers around the island, and Beijing has intensified cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns aimed at destabilizing Taiwan’s government and eroding public morale.
Beyond military coercion, China has been making diplomatic moves to frame Taiwan as a non-negotiable part of its territory. Beijing seeks to isolate Taiwan internationally, persuading foreign leaders and former officials to echo its stance. Recently, former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating sparked outrage when he called Taiwan “Chinese real estate.” Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs slammed his remarks, stating, “Our freedom-loving people are determined to defend our sovereignty and democracy. We’ll never allow our nation to be turned into another Hong Kong or attacked like Ukraine by an autocrat!”
Yet, the biggest question remains: Are the Taiwanese people prepared to fight?
Taiwan’s military capabilities are critical, but its will to resist is just as important. Ukraine has demonstrated that international support depends on a nation’s willingness to stand its ground. If Taiwan hopes to rally allies in a time of crisis, its people must prove they are ready to fight.
A recent study published in Taiwan Politics, an online journal from the University of Texas, highlights a troubling trend: between September 2021 and March 2023, the percentage of Taiwanese who were “confident” or “very confident” in their military’s ability to defend the island dropped from 58% to 43%.
Additionally, public willingness to personally fight in a war is showing signs of decline. When asked, “If China really invades Taiwan by force, would you be willing to fight to defend Taiwan?” 75% of Taiwanese respondents in September 2021 said they were willing, but by August 2023, that number had slipped to 68%.
Despite this, Taiwan is making efforts to bolster its defenses. The government recently approved a 6% increase in defense spending, raising the military budget to $19.8 billion for 2024. But this is a fraction of China’s $231.4 billion defense budget. In a major policy shift, Taiwan also reinstated one-year conscription for young men, reversing a controversial decision to shorten military service to just four months. Authorities hope to draft 9,100 conscripts in 2024—a small but symbolic step toward strengthening national defense.
Even with these measures, Taiwan’s best bet is to deter an invasion before it happens. Military experts warn that, if China believes Taiwan will crumble quickly, an attack becomes far more likely.
The United States remains Taiwan’s most important ally, but Washington’s policy of strategic ambiguity—deliberately refusing to clarify whether it would intervene militarily—leaves Taiwan in a precarious position. While President Joe Biden has repeatedly suggested that the U.S. would defend Taiwan, official policy remains unchanged.
Meanwhile, a $19.7 billion backlog in U.S. arms deliveries to Taiwan continues to raise concerns about Washington’s reliability. The delays stem from supply chain bottlenecks and increased global demand for American-made weapons due to the war in Ukraine.
Public opinion in the U.S. also casts doubt on whether Americans would support military intervention. An August 2023 poll revealed that only 11% of Americans “strongly agreed” that the U.S. should militarily defend Taiwan if China invades, while 19% “somewhat agreed”. The rest were neutral or opposed, showing a lukewarm level of commitment.
If former President Donald Trump returns to office in 2025, Taiwan’s security could face even greater uncertainty. Trump has previously voiced skepticism about America’s military commitments abroad, and his administration could prioritize isolationist policies over defending Taiwan.
For now, Taiwan’s best strategy is deterrence. If China believes an invasion would be costly and uncertain, it is less likely to make a move. As George Washington famously said, “To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace.”
The release of Zero Day has reignited public discourse on Taiwan’s fate, forcing many to confront uncomfortable realities. Is Taiwan prepared to fight? Can it count on U.S. support? Will China’s threats materialize into full-scale war?
The answers remain uncertain, but one thing is clear: Taiwan’s survival depends not only on its military capabilities but on its national resolve. If Zero Day serves as a wake-up call, perhaps its chilling fictional premise can help Taiwan avoid a real-life nightmare.
With tensions in the Taiwan Strait at their highest in decades, Zero Day could not be more timely. Whether the show is dismissed as alarmist or embraced as a necessary warning, it has already succeeded in forcing a conversation many would rather avoid.
Taiwan’s future may depend on how seriously its people take the threat of invasion. Fictional or not, Zero Day has exposed a stark truth: Taiwan can no longer afford to pretend that war is an impossibility.
