In a dramatic military escalation following the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 civilians, Pakistan has issued a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) over the Arabian Sea, effectively declaring a no-fly and no-sail zone between April 24 and 26. The move, aimed at facilitating live-fire missile drills, marks a volatile new phase in Indo-Pak relations and sends a pointed message of deterrence as both nations—armed with nuclear capabilities—brace for the geopolitical fallout of a deadly terrorist strike.
The missile test is expected to feature a tactical solid-fuel missile with a strike range of approximately 480 kilometers, likely from the Babur or Ghaznavi-class systems. This puts large swathes of western India within potential range, and Indian defense establishments are reading the move as a calculated display of force.
“The concerned Indian agencies are keeping a close watch on all developments,” said senior Indian defense officials to local media. While they stopped short of labeling the missile test a direct threat, the timing and location of the drills are widely viewed as an aggressive signal.
Pakistan’s decision to conduct live-fire missile exercises in the Arabian Sea has significant regional implications. The test area stretches near both Karachi and Gwadar, two coastal hubs critical to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Beyond being economic lifelines, these ports are key military nodes, with Gwadar hosting increasing Chinese naval infrastructure and Karachi serving as Pakistan’s principal naval base.
Pakistan’s Maritime Security Agency has issued alerts to commercial shipping lanes and local fishermen, instructing them to steer clear of the designated danger zones. This advisory underscores the seriousness of the drill and the growing militarization of a region already strained by overlapping security and economic agendas.
Satellite imagery released by open-source intelligence analysts confirms that launch equipment and tracking radars have been moved into operational positions in the Makran coastal belt, near Balochistan. The rapid militarization of this zone, already under international scrutiny due to Chinese naval interests, introduces new risks to freedom of navigation and regional maritime stability.
India’s counter-response has come quickly and decisively. Satellite reconnaissance on April 23 confirmed the redeployment of INS Vikrant, India’s first indigenously built aircraft carrier, into the Arabian Sea. Currently operating near Karwar on India’s western seaboard, INS Vikrant is now the closest it has ever been to Pakistani waters since its induction.
Capable of hosting up to 30 aircraft, including MiG-29K fighter jets and advanced naval helicopters, Vikrant’s presence is a strategic power projection move. Its deployment serves two main purposes: assert dominance over the western maritime domain and provide a forward-operating base for joint air-sea operations.
“This isn’t just muscle-flexing. It’s a textbook demonstration of integrated deterrence,” said a retired Indian Navy rear admiral. “With Vikrant in play, India can dominate the Arabian Sea and ensure that any escalation remains confined—or gets crushed—at sea.”
The carrier’s deployment marks a shift from reactive posture to proactive deterrence, aligning with India’s emerging maritime doctrine that emphasizes sea control and expeditionary capability.
India has also significantly ramped up its surveillance capabilities along the western and northern borders. In the immediate aftermath of the Pahalgam attack, Heron UAVs—Israeli-origin unmanned aerial vehicles—were launched across Jammu and Kashmir for round-the-clock ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance).
According to defense sources, these drones played a critical role in tracking the movement of insurgents suspected of executing the Pahalgam massacre. Their real-time feeds facilitated a series of search-and-destroy missions carried out by Indian security forces across Anantnag and Pulwama districts.
Simultaneously, the Indian Air Force has intensified its aerial patrols. Frontline squadrons flying Rafale and Su-30MKI fighters have been conducting combat air patrols (CAPs) and readiness drills across key sectors of the western front, including Punjab, Rajasthan, and Gujarat.
“Air dominance is the first step to escalation control,” noted an Indian Air Force spokesperson. “We are not looking for a conflict, but if one is imposed, we are prepared to strike fast and strike hard.”
India’s Army formations have also moved into high gear. Troop concentrations along the Line of Control (LoC) have increased, especially in forward posts across Poonch, Uri, and Kupwara. High-altitude reconnaissance teams and artillery units have been repositioned, and quick-reaction teams are on 24-hour standby.
The military presence in Kashmir has also been beefed up with the deployment of HAL Dhruv helicopters and additional infantry brigades. The emphasis has shifted toward preemption—neutralizing threats before they can materialize into attacks.
“This isn’t just about retaliating after an incident,” said a senior Army official. “We’re creating a buffer zone that’s impenetrable.”
These combined air, land, and sea maneuvers reflect a tri-service integration strategy aimed at asserting escalation dominance. India is signaling that it can—and will—respond across multiple domains if provoked again.
Across the border, Pakistan’s military has responded with parallel escalations. Its air force has placed AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control Systems) on combat patrol, particularly over Sindh and Balochistan, to monitor Indian air movements. These aerial platforms are crucial for early warning and threat assessment.
Pakistan’s ground forces have initiated rapid mobility drills and forward deployments across key regions along the Indian frontier. Elements of its Strategic Forces Command have reportedly been moved to higher readiness levels, though the details remain classified.
In a rare public statement, Pakistan’s National Security Committee, chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, warned that the country would respond “with full force across the complete spectrum of national power” if provoked further.
“We do not seek war, but we will not tolerate aggression. Any miscalculation by the adversary will be met with decisive retribution,” said Pakistan’s Foreign Minister during a televised briefing.
The crisis is not confined to military maneuvers. Diplomatic ties between the two nations have entered a deep freeze.
India’s immediate response to the Pahalgam attack was to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty—a decades-old agreement mediated by the World Bank that governs water-sharing from six rivers of the Indus system. India cited Pakistan’s continued sheltering of terror groups as grounds for deeming the treaty “untenable.”
Next, India closed the Attari–Wagah border crossing, severing the last vestiges of trade and civilian exchange. It followed this by revoking visas for all Pakistani nationals, including those under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme, effectively shutting down people-to-people contact.
In a sweeping diplomatic move, India expelled Pakistan’s Defence Attaché and cut its own diplomatic mission strength in Islamabad by nearly half. Pakistan is expected to mirror the expulsions.
Prime Minister Modi, who had been on a state visit to Saudi Arabia, returned early to convene high-level security meetings. Meanwhile, Home Minister Amit Shah flew to Srinagar to supervise ground-level operations and inter-agency coordination.
A rare all-party meeting in New Delhi resulted in a joint declaration endorsing the government’s actions. In a climate often marked by political friction, the unity among parties signaled the gravity of the situation.
The international community has expressed alarm over the rapid militarization of the region. The U.S. State Department has urged both nations to exercise restraint and maintain backchannel communication. China, a close ally of Pakistan and a regional power with stakes in CPEC, has called for “dialogue and de-escalation.”
Russia and the United Nations have issued similar statements, though neither has offered to mediate. Analysts note that the world is more distracted than ever—grappling with conflicts in Europe and the Middle East—which could reduce the international community’s ability to intervene constructively in South Asia.
“The danger here isn’t that either side wants war,” said a South Asia expert at the Carnegie Endowment. “It’s that rapid escalation, misinterpretation, or a false flag operation could spiral out of control before diplomacy has a chance to work.”
What happens next depends largely on political will and military prudence. India has drawn red lines—especially after what it sees as a massacre enabled by Pakistan-based militants. Pakistan, for its part, feels cornered and is projecting strength to retain deterrence credibility.
Both sides are armed with nuclear weapons and have deeply entrenched doctrines that prevent easy backdowns. But within that rigidity, there’s a narrow band of maneuver where smart diplomacy and strategic signaling can coexist.
“This is not 1999, and it’s not 2019,” a former Indian diplomat said. “Both countries have evolved, but the risks have also multiplied.”
Until then, the Arabian Sea will remain unusually tense, the LoC highly volatile, and the diplomatic channels—once seen as fragile but functional—now appear dangerously close to collapse.
The shadow of Pahalgam looms large over South Asia. What began as a tragic terrorist attack has rapidly evolved into a full-spectrum confrontation. From missile drills in the Arabian Sea to border closures and expelled diplomats, every move now carries geopolitical weight.
India has made it clear that it will no longer tolerate cross-border terrorism without consequence. Pakistan, cornered diplomatically and facing internal economic and political pressure, is turning to hard-power signaling.
