Fresh salvos have been fired in the ongoing battle of ideas between tech mogul Elon Musk and defense giant Lockheed Martin, as the future of American air dominance faces a pivotal moment. Musk, long a critic of the F-35 Lightning II program — the Pentagon’s most expensive weapon development project — once again pulled no punches, calling the aircraft obsolete in an era defined by cheap, smart, and deadly drone swarms.
The latest flashpoint erupted after investigative journalist Laura Loomer accused Lockheed Martin of delivering F-35s “not ready for combat,” pointing to spiraling costs and continued technical delays. Responding on X, Musk delivered another sharp blow: “Crewed aircraft will be destroyed instantly by cheap drone swarms.”
Musk’s words carry new weight, especially since his appointment as an advisor to the U.S. government on optimizing federal spending. His criticism of the F-35 program as “the worst military value for money in history” has increasingly shaped public and policymaker perceptions.
Despite its touted cutting-edge capabilities, the F-35 program has been plagued by delays, cost overruns, and operational setbacks. With a projected lifetime cost surpassing $2 trillion, the F-35 remains the most expensive military program ever undertaken.
The 2024 declassified Pentagon report underscored the problem: “The overall reliability, maintainability, and availability of the US fleet remains below service expectations.” While Lockheed Martin defended its performance, claiming “almost 90% of F-35 components are performing better than required,” criticism remains fierce.
Adding salt to the wound, the U.S. Air Force awarded the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) contract to Boeing, signaling a major shift. The sixth-generation fighter, designated the F-47, is intended to correct many mistakes made during the F-35’s troubled evolution. Key among these lessons: the government must retain intellectual property rights, and avoid concurrency — the costly mistake of beginning production before finalizing design.
Unwilling to be left behind, Lockheed Martin’s CEO Jim Taiclet announced an ambitious plan to upgrade the F-35 with 80% of sixth-generation technologies. This “fifth-generation plus” variant would retain the F-35’s existing chassis but integrate cutting-edge improvements — at “half the cost” of developing a new fighter.
“We’re basically going to take the [F-35] chassis and turn it into a Ferrari,” Taiclet claimed, signaling that Lockheed Martin sees a future for manned fighters even as drones ascend.
Musk sees things differently. In his view, the age of manned fighters is ending. “Chinese drones like DJI or military models cost a thousandth of the price of an F-35 but can destroy one in seconds,” Musk pointed out. In modern, contested environments, he argues, crewed jets are “an inefficient way to extend the range of missiles or drop bombs.”
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has validated many of these concerns. Cheap drones have demonstrated an ability to harass, surveil, and even destroy expensive military hardware at minimal cost. Musk’s broader point is clear: spending hundreds of billions on fragile, manned platforms could be a fatal strategic mistake.
China’s explosive growth in drone technology further validates Musk’s warnings. Even before Ukraine highlighted the potency of drones, Beijing had made unmanned systems a cornerstone of its military modernization.
China’s 2019 defense white paper predicted a future of “intelligent warfare”, driven by unmanned, stealthy, and precision weapons. Today, China’s Wing Loong and Caihong (CH) drone series are global export successes. Reconnaissance models like the Soaring Dragon and Cloud Shadow enhance China’s surveillance reach.
At the 2024 Zhuhai Air Show, Beijing showcased next-generation drones:
- CH-9: Armed reconnaissance drone with an 11,500 km range and 40-hour endurance.
- CH-7: Stealth early-warning drone with ISR and targeting capabilities.
- CH-3D and CH-YH1000: Low-cost strike and cargo drones.
- Jetank: A 16-ton, modular “swarm carrier” drone capable of launching smaller attack drones and deploying precision munitions.
These systems highlight China’s strategic bet: dominate the skies not with manned jets, but with swarms of autonomous systems, AI-guided and cost-effective.
Drone swarms operate on principles observed in nature: decentralized coordination like ant colonies or bird flocks. The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) defines swarms as networks of at least three — and potentially thousands — of drones acting semi-autonomously.
These systems leverage AI and machine learning to overcome traditional countermeasures such as GPS jamming and electronic warfare. They can perform surveillance, targeting, and kinetic strikes with minimal human oversight.
Critically, the economics are overwhelming. A single F-35 costs roughly $80 million. A swarm of 1,000 drones could be fielded for a fraction of that price, making mass and attrition feasible strategic advantages.
Recognizing this shift, militaries worldwide are racing to field drone swarm capabilities:
- France: Icarus Project
- Russia: Lightning Swarm
- Spain: RAPAZ Initiative
- United Kingdom: Blue Bear Swarm Tech
- UAE/South Africa: N-Raven Swarm Program
The U.S. itself has moved aggressively. The Replicator initiative aims to field thousands of autonomous, inexpensive drones by 2025, with $500 million already allocated. Another program, the Perdix System, developed since 2016, has demonstrated successful micro-drone swarm launches from F/A-18 fighters.
Perdix drones operate as a “collective organism,” sharing data in real time without a central leader. They adapt to drones entering or leaving the swarm, mirroring natural systems. With over 670 Perdix drones produced, the U.S. has shown that large-scale, decentralized drone operations are not theoretical — they’re here.
The clash between Musk’s vision and Lockheed Martin’s legacy underscores a larger battle: the future of warfare itself.
Manned fighters like the F-35 offer flexibility, persistence, and human judgment. They remain essential for certain missions, such as air superiority, nuclear deterrence, and strategic presence. However, their vulnerabilities to drone swarms, advanced air defenses, and electronic warfare raise urgent questions about their survivability.
Meanwhile, unmanned systems offer scalability, affordability, and attrition tolerance. Drone swarms can saturate defenses, complicate targeting, and overwhelm expensive platforms. AI enables real-time, decentralized decision-making far beyond human capabilities.
The shift Musk champions isn’t merely technological; it’s cultural. It demands rethinking doctrines, procurement, and strategic planning from the ground up. It pits bureaucratic inertia against Silicon Valley’s ethos of rapid iteration and disruptive change.
U.S. military leaders increasingly acknowledge the coming revolution. Air Force Chief of Staff General David Allvin stated in late 2024: “Mass will matter again. Not just exquisite mass, but affordable mass.”
Affordable mass — the core principle behind drone swarms — requires moving away from decades-long, trillion-dollar mega-programs toward faster, cheaper, and more distributed approaches.
Still, transition will not be instantaneous. Fighter pilots, aircraft carriers, and stealth bombers will not vanish overnight. Instead, a hybrid force structure is emerging: manned systems commanding, supporting, and surviving alongside autonomous fleets.
The debate between Elon Musk and Lockheed Martin reflects a broader truth: warfare is entering an era where agility, autonomy, and numbers will matter more than heavy-metal marvels.
Musk’s critiques are not idle rants; they are canaries in the coal mine. The future battlespace will be dominated by whoever adapts fastest to the disruptive forces of autonomy, AI, and massed drone warfare.
Lockheed Martin’s “Ferrari” version of the F-35 may extend the fighter’s relevance for a time. But the tide is turning.
Crewed aircraft, once the undisputed kings of air power, now face an existential challenge from swarms of silicon warriors. Whether the U.S. military — and its defense industry partners — can pivot in time may decide not just the next war, but the very survival of the current American military dominance.
