Few nations have mastered the long game of geopolitical maneuvering like the United States. Whether in trade, military alliances, or energy diplomacy, Washington has shown a consistent ability to reconcile idealism with realpolitik. Nowhere is this duality more evident than in its enduring and often contradictory relationship with Pakistan. Once a key partner in the Cold War and later the War on Terror, Pakistan is now being eyed for an entirely different resource: its vast, underexplored troves of critical minerals.
The recent visit of Eric Meyer, a senior official from the US Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, signals a fresh strategic calculus in Washington’s Pakistan policy—one driven less by counterterrorism and more by the minerals essential to power the technologies of the future.
For years, the dominant narrative tying the US to Pakistan was security. After 9/11, Islamabad played a central role in America’s campaign in Afghanistan. But this relationship was always uneasy. US intelligence routinely flagged Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency for ties to the Taliban and other militant groups. From sheltering Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad to backing jihadist proxies in Kashmir and Afghanistan, Pakistan’s double game drew harsh criticism in Washington.
Despite this, American administrations—Democratic and Republican—continued to maintain working ties with Pakistan. The logic was simple: geography and necessity. Supply lines for NATO forces in Afghanistan ran through Pakistani territory. Now, geography is again proving vital—but this time, for minerals rather than military logistics.
In April 2025, Eric Meyer led a high-level US delegation to Pakistan with a clear agenda: securing a slice of Pakistan’s estimated $6 trillion in mineral wealth. His meetings with Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Army Chief General Syed Asim Munir highlighted a new chapter in bilateral ties—one focused on copper, lithium, rare earths, and gold.
The visit culminated in the ‘Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum 2025’ in Islamabad, where American, Chinese, Saudi, and European investors gathered to explore opportunities in Pakistan’s mining sector. Addressing the forum, Meyer called critical minerals “the raw materials of our future,” emphasizing their role in electric vehicles, batteries, defense systems, and clean energy technologies.
President Trump’s administration, now in its second term, has made securing access to these minerals a top strategic priority. With China currently dominating global mineral supply chains—controlling 69% of rare earth mining and 44% of copper smelting—the US is scrambling to diversify its sources. Pakistan, with large copper deposits and vast untapped reserves, suddenly finds itself on Washington’s radar again.
At the heart of this mineral narrative lies the Reko Diq project in Balochistan. Nestled in the mineral-rich Chagai district, Reko Diq is one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits. After years of legal disputes and false starts, Canadian firm Barrick Gold is investing $5.5 billion to revive the project. Production is set to begin by 2028, and the mine is projected to generate nearly $74 billion over its 40-year lifespan.
For Pakistan, Reko Diq offers a chance to transform its economic trajectory. The mine could generate $2.8 billion in annual exports—more than the total revenue from the country’s textile sector. For the US, it’s a potential alternative to China-controlled supply chains.
Yet there’s a wrinkle: the nearest port to Reko Diq is Gwadar, operated by a Chinese state-run firm under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This places Washington’s mineral ambitions directly in the shadow of its top strategic rival.
A major obstacle to mineral development in Pakistan is security. Most high-value mineral deposits are located in Balochistan, a province long plagued by insurgency, separatist violence, and militant activity. Kidnappings, attacks on foreign workers, and sabotage have deterred investors for decades.
To counter these risks, General Munir has pledged full military backing for mining operations. “Economic security is now a pillar of national security,” he said during the investment forum, promising a tailored security apparatus to protect mining corridors and reassure investors.
This growing role of the military in Pakistan’s economic affairs is not new, but it is expanding. The army already runs major business conglomerates and wields influence over infrastructure and energy projects. Now, with mining seen as a national priority, the military’s footprint is likely to grow further.
Beyond security, another critical challenge looms: water scarcity. Pakistan is one of the most water-stressed countries in the world. Mining, especially for lithium and copper, is notoriously water-intensive. Experts warn that large-scale mineral extraction in arid regions like Balochistan could worsen water shortages and spark environmental conflict.
Some estimates suggest mineral operations could consume up to 40% of available local water in certain areas, putting pressure on already fragile ecosystems and communities. Environmental groups and local rights advocates have voiced concerns about sustainability and equitable resource sharing.
Unless carefully managed, mineral development could deepen existing grievances and fuel unrest in already tense regions.
The US pivot toward Pakistan’s minerals fits into a broader global pattern. As competition with China heats up, Washington is drawing new lines on the mineral map. Deals have been inked with countries like Indonesia, Peru, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Uzbekistan. Pakistan is the latest frontier in this resource-driven realignment.
However, the nature of this engagement raises difficult ethical questions. By focusing heavily on minerals and sidelining long-standing concerns about terrorism, human rights, and democratic governance, Washington risks repeating a familiar mistake: valuing short-term gains over long-term principles.
In many ways, this mineral diplomacy mirrors the US approach during the Cold War and the War on Terror—working with authoritarian or unstable regimes in the name of strategic necessity. The question now is whether this new partnership will deliver real benefits to Pakistan’s people or merely serve elite interests and foreign supply chains.
Pakistan desperately needs a win. The country is grappling with soaring inflation, weak foreign reserves, and an external debt of $130 billion—much of it owed to China. The mining sector, despite its potential, currently contributes just 3.2% to GDP and accounts for only 0.1% of global mineral exports.
By ramping up mineral production, Islamabad hopes to ease its balance-of-payments crisis and reduce dependence on international bailouts. But this strategy is a double-edged sword. Without transparency, environmental safeguards, and local benefit-sharing, it could fuel inequality and exacerbate regional instability.
For now, the government is betting big. Prime Minister Sharif has declared mineral development a “national economic imperative,” and new incentives for foreign investors—including tax holidays and streamlined regulations—are being rolled out.
The coming years will be critical. If Reko Diq and other projects succeed, Pakistan could emerge as a key node in the global critical minerals network. But success will depend on more than foreign capital. It will require sustained political stability, robust environmental governance, and credible security guarantees.
For the US, the mineral pivot offers a second chance at strategic relevance in South Asia—one less entangled in war and more focused on future technologies. But the price of that pivot may be selective silence on issues like terrorism, governance, and civil liberties.
As Pakistan and the US rewire their relationship around critical minerals, both sides are playing a long game. The outcome will shape not just economic futures, but geopolitical alignments in a world increasingly defined by the race for resources.
