As Japan continues to navigate an increasingly volatile Indo-Pacific security landscape, a fresh dilemma is brewing in Tokyo: whether to persist with its commitment to the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) or pivot toward an American offer that seems too tempting to ignore. Amid mounting concerns that the trilateral UK-Japan-Italy program is facing delays, U.S. President Donald Trump has made a surprise pitch to sell Japan the F-47—America’s newest sixth-generation fighter jet.
Behind what was initially dismissed as a routine, if eccentric, phone call between Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, lies a significant development. Trump, fresh from a tour of the Middle East, took the opportunity to gloat about American fighter capabilities and offered what many Japanese officials interpreted as an informal invitation to explore the F-47 program.
“The 47 in F-47 is a good number, don’t you think?” Trump reportedly said, before segueing into praise for the F-22 and pitching the F-55—another fighter concept he introduced in a recent press conference. While Trump didn’t explicitly press Ishiba to make a purchase, Japanese officials confirmed he floated the idea of Japan “looking into” American-built sixth-generation aircraft.
The F-47, developed under the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, is designed to serve as the cornerstone of America’s future air superiority. Packed with cutting-edge stealth, AI-enabled systems, and the ability to operate in concert with unmanned drones, the F-47 promises unmatched air dominance capabilities.
Announced officially in March 2025, Boeing was awarded the contract to develop the jet, with operational deployment projected between 2025 and 2029. For Japan, this early availability could prove crucial given rising concerns that GCAP may not deliver on time.
A Reuters report recently fueled those anxieties by claiming that delays within the GCAP partnership, particularly due to lackluster urgency from the UK and Italy, could push the program’s deployment beyond 2040. Originally, the program aimed for a maiden flight in 2027 and induction by 2035. If delayed, Japan could face a worrying capability gap.
The GCAP emerged in 2022 as a highly ambitious multilateral initiative pooling the British Tempest and Japanese F-X programs. The program promised a new era of military-industrial cooperation and technological autonomy. It would replace the aging F-2 fighters in Japan and the Eurofighter Typhoon in the UK and Italy, bringing sixth-generation capabilities such as AI, manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T), advanced stealth, and sensor fusion.
But while the technological vision remains intact, political and bureaucratic realities are starting to intrude. Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto has openly accused the UK of withholding critical technologies, suggesting underlying tensions that may inhibit progress. These aren’t unprecedented issues: multinational defense ventures have historically struggled due to disparities in political will, funding, and industrial expectations.
Examples abound: India walked away from its joint Indo-Russian Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) initiative in 2018 due to performance and cost concerns. France and Germany have repeatedly clashed over leadership and technology transfer in the FCAS (Future Combat Air System) program. GCAP, it seems, is not immune.
Driving Tokyo’s urgency is a clear and present danger: China. Beijing is ramping up development on its sixth-generation fighters, reportedly testing both the J-36 and J-50 prototypes. If China fields one of these aircraft by 2030, as some projections suggest, it would create a major strategic imbalance in East Asia. This would place Japan at a disadvantage just as the regional arms race accelerates.
As such, Tokyo is under pressure to hedge against potential GCAP delays. Possibilities include procuring additional F-35s or upgrading existing F-2s. But neither option offers a sixth-generation solution. The F-35, while formidable, is still a fifth-generation aircraft. For Japan to remain at the cutting edge, sixth-generation capabilities are imperative.
Trump’s F-47 overture comes across as more than casual diplomacy. At a recent press conference, he boasted that U.S. allies were “calling constantly” to buy the aircraft. The offer to Japan would be for a slightly downgraded version—toned down by 10%, according to Trump, just in case “they’re not our allies someday.”
While this remark raised eyebrows in Tokyo, it also underscored a deeper issue: trust. Trump’s mercurial leadership style and unpredictable foreign policy have caused rifts even among America’s closest partners. Canada, for instance, is reportedly reconsidering its remaining F-35 orders due to tensions with Washington.
If Japan chooses the F-47, it could gain access to superior technology faster, but at the cost of autonomy. The jet would be entirely U.S.-controlled, with restrictions on software updates, modifications, and operational usage. For a nation increasingly seeking technological self-reliance, this is no small compromise.
There’s also the matter of cost. The F-47 is expected to be almost twice as expensive as the F-35, placing further strain on Japan’s already expanding defense budget. It would also render moot the GCAP’s original promise of a cost-effective solution through shared R&D and manufacturing responsibilities.
Moreover, Japan would likely have to leave GCAP if it opts for the F-47. Operating both programs simultaneously would be fiscally and logistically prohibitive. This decision would have ramifications not only for Japan’s defense industry but also for its broader diplomatic ties with the UK and Italy.
On the operational front, however, the F-47 might offer distinct advantages. With a combat radius exceeding 1,000 nautical miles, it is tailor-made for the long-range requirements of the Indo-Pacific theater. Its ability to operate seamlessly with U.S. systems also enhances interoperability in joint operations.
Before joining GCAP, there were whispers that Tokyo was snubbed from NGAD. Washington, some speculated, had no intention of allowing Japan into the F-47 program because they believed Japan would become a buyer regardless. This narrative only adds another layer of intrigue to Trump’s recent overture.
Still, Japan’s decision to partner with the UK and Italy was also driven by a desire to diversify away from American dependency. GCAP offered a seat at the decision-making table, shared intellectual property, and industrial participation—none of which the F-47 program can match.
A Japanese defense official, speaking anonymously, noted that Tokyo’s long-term goal is to create a more self-sufficient defense industry. “With GCAP, we have a say. With F-47, we just buy.”
The decision before Prime Minister Ishiba is no longer about just fighter jets. It’s about choosing between two fundamentally different paths.
- F-47: Technological superiority, early availability, and full integration with U.S. forces, but at the cost of sovereignty, cost-efficiency, and independent capability development.
- GCAP: Shared ownership, autonomy, and industrial growth, but plagued by potential delays and partner frictions.
As Air Chief Marshal Anil Chopra (Retd.) aptly summarized, “The F-47 could disrupt GCAP by intensifying competition for funding, talent, and buyers.” It’s a zero-sum game, and whichever path Japan chooses, it will set the tone for the nation’s defense strategy for decades.
Japan is at a crossroads. The threat from China is real, the GCAP timeline is shaky, and America is making a full-court press. In this geopolitical chessboard, the fighter jet is the queen—agile, powerful, and game-changing.
The question remains: Will Japan double down on its multilateral bet and wait for GCAP to bear fruit, or will it gamble on a high-priced American ace and risk giving up its newfound independence?
