Israel’s once-revered air defence architecture is now confronting its gravest challenge in over a decade. What was long heralded as a model for multi-layered interception has suffered a severe blow: in the past 24 hours alone, the system’s interception rate has plunged to 65 percent, compared to over 90 percent just the day before.
A senior Israeli intelligence official, speaking to U.S. media under condition of anonymity, attributed the collapse in effectiveness to the relentless onslaught of technologically evolved Iranian missiles and drones. These projectiles, moving faster and more unpredictably than ever, have eroded Israel’s missile warning window from ten minutes to a mere six—cutting reaction time by nearly half.
The official also revealed that Iran’s deployment of advanced terminal-phase precision-guided systems has enabled missiles to strike with alarming accuracy. One such attack, believed to involve a precision-guided missile, targeted a hospital in Beersheba earlier this week, resulting in significant civilian casualties and a national outcry.
“Iranians do have a navigation system for the final phase of the attack that helps them to be very precise and to attack exactly the targets that they wish, like the hospital today in Beersheba,” the intelligence official explained grimly.
More troubling is Iran’s confirmed introduction of multi-warhead missile technology. These missiles carry Multiple Independently targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs), allowing a single missile to release several warheads mid-flight. This technological leap presents an unprecedented challenge to Israel’s layered defence systems.
One such MIRV-equipped missile struck the Gush Dan region near Tel Aviv, reportedly deploying several warheads to saturate air defences. According to Israel’s Army Radio, the warheads were able to evade tracking and target distinct sites, exploiting gaps in radar coverage and overwhelming Arrow and David’s Sling batteries.
This multi-vector threat effectively turns each interception scenario into a high-stakes chess game, where Israeli commanders must make split-second decisions on which warheads to prioritize—and which to let through.
“We’re seeing missiles split in the sky and each warhead veers off to its own target. It’s becoming unmanageable,” a senior IDF commander told Haaretz.
Despite losing several senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders to Israeli airstrikes over the past month, Tehran’s military has not backed down. Instead, Iran appears to be deploying a doctrine of “strategic patience,” absorbing early losses while leveraging superior missile technology to systematically degrade Israeli air defences.
The results are visible. The volume of Iranian projectile launches has decreased—from an initial 150 per day at the onset of hostilities to around 36 daily now—but lethality has increased. According to updated IDF assessments, Iran’s penetration rate has more than tripled, from 10 percent in the first days of the conflict to 35 percent now.
“The faster Iranian missiles launched in the last day have also given Israel less time to prepare before the projectiles approach their intended targets,” noted the same Israeli official.
Israel’s air defence system has long been considered among the most sophisticated in the world. The Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow-2, and Arrow-3—augmented by U.S.-deployed THAAD batteries—constitute a seamless defensive shield designed to intercept threats at various ranges and altitudes.
But that legacy is now buckling.
On June 13, 2025, following a high-profile Israeli strike on Iranian weapons facilities, Tehran launched a meticulously coordinated counter-assault using a mix of ballistic missiles, suicide drones, and—most notably—hypersonic weapons. Among these were Fattah-1 and Sejjil hypersonic missiles, capable of unpredictable flight paths and high-velocity maneuvering, making them nearly impossible to intercept with conventional means.
Hypersonics, by definition, travel at speeds exceeding Mach 5 and possess the agility to outmaneuver traditional radar-based targeting systems. Israeli interceptors—designed based on predictive flight paths—have found it nearly impossible to calculate the impact point of these missiles, allowing several to breach the final Arrow-3 line of defence.
The operational and financial toll of this escalation is staggering.
According to economic outlet The Marker, Israel is spending an estimated $285 million per night to sustain its current level of air defence. This includes the high cost of Arrow interceptors—each priced at roughly $3 million. With projectiles now demanding multiple interceptors for a single neutralization, the cost-per-threat ratio has become prohibitively high.
Some attack scenarios, particularly those involving decoys and MIRVs, have required as many as ten interceptors per missile. The result is an acceleration in the depletion of Israel’s missile stockpiles.
A bombshell report by The Wall Street Journal confirmed what Israeli officials had feared: the country has only 10 to 12 days’ worth of Arrow and other advanced interceptors left if the current intensity of attacks continues.
The ramifications are dire. Defence strategists are now implementing triage protocols, reserving interceptors for critical sites such as nuclear reactors, military bases, and population-dense areas, while allowing missiles aimed at open terrain or less-strategic infrastructure to go unchallenged.
“The system is already overwhelmed,” one Israeli defence source admitted. “We are now forced to make hard choices—life-and-death choices—on every single alert.”
The Arrow-3, Israel’s final shield against long-range ballistic and hypersonic attacks, is teetering at the edge of operational sustainability. Meanwhile, the Iron Dome and David’s Sling, though still effective against short and medium-range threats, are showing signs of exhaustion.
In response to the crisis, the United States has begun fast-tracking emergency aid, including interceptor transfers from its own stocks. But with American commitments already stretched across Ukraine, Taiwan, and NATO eastern flanks, these efforts may fall short of preventing Israel’s air defence collapse.
Sources in Washington confirmed to The Washington Post that American intelligence concurs with the 10–12 day timeframe. As early as next week, Israel may have to prioritize defending only the most vital targets, conceding others to missile impact.
This is already changing Israel’s strategic posture. Air defence commanders are now working in tandem with civil protection agencies to fortify shelters, distribute emergency supplies, and improve missile impact forecasting in densely populated zones.
Beyond Israel’s borders, the crisis is being closely monitored by military planners from NATO to the Indo-Pacific. What is unfolding in the skies above Israel is more than a regional conflict; it is a live-fire demonstration of the emerging hypersonic threat landscape.
Iran’s effective use of speed, swarm tactics, and multi-vector ambiguity is setting a precedent. For nations like South Korea, Poland, and even the United States, the key question is no longer “if” their air defence systems will face saturation—but “when” and “how badly.”
Experts warn that legacy missile doctrines, built around ballistic trajectories and linear engagement protocols, are rapidly becoming obsolete.
“This isn’t just Israel’s problem anymore,” said Dr. Ethan Abrams, a missile defence analyst at the RAND Corporation. “We are watching a new era of warfare emerge—one where precision, speed, and digital deception nullify even the most advanced interception systems.”
Israel’s technological ingenuity has been a hallmark of its national security strategy. But even the most sophisticated systems have physical and logistical limits. With interceptor inventories dwindling and Iran’s projectiles becoming deadlier, Israel stands at a strategic inflection point.
Unless allies step in with decisive support—and unless a leap forward in missile interception is achieved—the balance of power in the Middle East could tilt in Iran’s favor. The broader implication is chilling: if Israel’s globally praised defence architecture can be cracked in mere days, what hope do less fortified nations have?
Israel’s missile defence system, once the envy of the world, now finds itself in survival mode. The pace of Iranian adaptation, the sophistication of its offensive assets, and the high cost of sustained defence are coalescing into a storm that could change the military map of the Middle East.
