As geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States rise sharply, the global energy market stands on the precipice of a potentially catastrophic disruption. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime chokepoint between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, has once again emerged as a focal point of international anxiety. Responsible for the transit of about 20 percent of global oil output, the Strait’s vulnerability to conflict is a lingering nightmare for energy-importing nations—particularly in Asia, where 84 percent of all oil passing through Hormuz is destined.
The implications of a potential Iranian blockade of the Strait in response to US airstrikes on its nuclear facilities are grave and far-reaching. The move could paralyze energy supply chains from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iran—countries whose exports depend almost entirely on this 21-mile-wide corridor. The economic reverberations would most acutely impact China, India, South Korea, Japan, and other Asian nations.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), approximately 14.2 million barrels of crude oil and 5.9 million barrels of refined petroleum products traverse the Strait daily. This staggering volume amounts to around a fifth of global production as of Q1 2025. The Strait’s strategic value is magnified by the fact that the vast majority of Middle Eastern oil production lacks viable alternative export routes.
Should Iran, emboldened by its alliances or driven by retaliation, close or even partially disrupt maritime traffic in Hormuz, it would send a shockwave through oil markets, shipping insurance costs, and strategic calculations in global capitals.
China: Largest Vulnerable Importer
China remains the most exposed nation to a Strait of Hormuz blockade. In Q1 2025, it imported 5.4 million barrels of crude oil per day via the corridor. The Chinese economy, the world’s second-largest, is structurally reliant on imported energy to fuel its industries, urban expansion, and military growth.
Saudi Arabia is China’s second-largest oil supplier, providing roughly 1.6 million barrels daily, or 15 percent of Beijing’s total oil imports. China has also become Iran’s critical lifeline, importing over 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports—amounting to 1.3 million barrels per day in April 2025, according to data from energy analytics firm Kpler.
While China has sought to diversify its energy sources—investing in Russian pipelines, increasing domestic coal usage, and expanding nuclear energy—its reliance on Gulf oil remains entrenched. A prolonged closure of Hormuz would likely force China into a strategic scramble: releasing petroleum reserves, seeking alternate suppliers, and accelerating diplomatic efforts to cool the conflict.
India: A Wary Eye on Gulf
India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, also finds itself dangerously tethered to the fate of the Strait of Hormuz. 2.1 million barrels of crude oil per day imported in the first quarter of 2025 came through the Strait. Approximately 53 percent of India’s total oil imports during that time originated in the Middle East, particularly from Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
In recent years, New Delhi has significantly ramped up imports of Russian oil, especially after Western sanctions pushed Moscow to offer steep discounts. This diversification has provided a degree of insulation, but not immunity.
India’s Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri acknowledged the growing risks in a statement issued this week. “We have been closely monitoring the evolving geopolitical situation in the Middle East since the past two weeks,” he posted on X (formerly Twitter). “We have diversified our supplies… and a large volume of our supplies do not come through the Strait of Hormuz now.”
Yet, analysts say that a supply crunch from Hormuz would still strain India’s refineries and drive up costs, especially for industries and agriculture sectors reliant on diesel and LPG imports.
South Korea: Deep Strategic Concerns
South Korea, which lacks significant domestic energy resources, relies on imports for over 90 percent of its energy needs. In 2025, 1.7 million barrels of crude oil per day—or 68 percent of its total imports—have come through the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia is South Korea’s largest supplier, providing around a third of total imports last year. Seoul has taken a cautious but proactive approach. In a statement, the Trade and Energy Ministry said, “There have been no disruptions so far in South Korea’s crude oil and LNG imports,” but added that officials are “planning for potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.”
South Korea boasts a strategic petroleum reserve equivalent to 200 days of supply, providing a crucial buffer in case of emergencies. However, this would only delay—not prevent—the inevitable price inflation and industrial pressure if the Strait remains blocked for weeks or longer.
Japan: Maritime Logistics on Alert
Japan’s dependence on the Strait of Hormuz is just as severe. The country imported 1.6 million barrels of crude oil per day via Hormuz in the first quarter of 2025. Japanese customs data reveal that 95 percent of Japan’s oil imports in 2024 came from the Middle East.
Recognizing the risks, Japanese shipping companies are already adjusting their logistics. Mitsui OSK Lines, one of the country’s largest freight operators, stated it is “taking measures to shorten as much as possible the time spent by our vessels in the Gulf.” These operational changes reflect growing fears that Iran’s naval forces—or affiliated militia—could target oil tankers, mine shipping lanes, or otherwise deter safe passage.
The Japanese government has yet to officially invoke its petroleum reserve strategy, but internal sources indicate contingency plans are under active revision.
Southeast Asia: Not Immune
Beyond the major East Asian economies, a significant portion of the oil passing through Hormuz—approximately 2 million barrels per day—is bound for other parts of Asia, including Thailand, the Philippines, and Singapore. While these countries have smaller economies and lower per-capita oil usage, they are still heavily dependent on Middle Eastern suppliers.
Europe (receiving 0.5 million barrels/day) and the US (0.4 million) are comparatively less exposed, especially given the US’s increased domestic production. For Southeast Asia, however, options for quick diversification are few and limited by storage infrastructure, refining capabilities, and long-term contracts.
Experts agree that diversification of supply chains is key to future energy security, but the sheer scale of Asian oil demand makes short-term substitution nearly impossible. According to analysts at MUFG Bank, while global oil inventories, OPEC+ spare capacity, and US shale oil could provide a short-term cushion, the closure of Hormuz would render much of that capacity inaccessible—especially the reserves located within the Persian Gulf itself.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have made efforts to mitigate risk by constructing alternative pipelines. The East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi’s Habshan–Fujairah pipeline can bypass Hormuz, together offering an export capacity of about 2.6 million barrels per day. However, this is a fraction of the total oil flows at risk.
Iran’s own efforts to bypass Hormuz with the Ghorbani-Jask pipeline, designed to export oil via the Gulf of Oman, have not yet scaled meaningfully. Its maximum capacity is 300,000 barrels per day, and the pipeline has been inactive since last year, EIA data shows.
Global Economic Domino Effect
Should oil supplies from Hormuz be disrupted, global oil prices could skyrocket—potentially exceeding $150 per barrel, some analysts predict. This would ripple through transportation costs, inflation metrics, and monetary policies, compounding existing post-pandemic economic volatility and climate-related stresses.
For China and India, the stakes are not just economic but also political. Rising fuel prices could dampen consumer confidence, increase industrial costs, and force difficult trade-offs in foreign policy—especially in balancing relationships with the US, Gulf states, and Russia.
South Korea and Japan would face added pressure in their security alliances with the United States, possibly drawing them deeper into a geopolitical storm they would prefer to avoid. The US Navy’s Fifth Fleet is already on high alert, patrolling the Gulf, and ensuring “freedom of navigation,” but it remains unclear whether such measures can effectively deter a determined Iranian blockade.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a strategic Achilles’ heel for Asia’s economic engine. Despite years of warnings, the region’s dependency on a single chokepoint persists—with few short-term alternatives. As tensions between Washington and Tehran escalate, Asian powers face a stark calculus: either pay the geopolitical cost of energy dependence or accelerate a painful transition away from it.
In the immediate term, diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions will be crucial. A full-scale conflict involving Iran and the United States—perhaps dragging in Gulf partners—would not only threaten global energy security but also set the stage for an economic crisis with potentially worldwide consequences.
