The Indian Air Force (IAF) is grappling with one of its gravest modernization challenges in decades. Its fighter squadron strength has fallen to just 31 squadrons, far short of the sanctioned 42 required to counter a two-front war scenario with China and Pakistan.
To close this gap, India has launched the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program to acquire 114 advanced fighter jets, a deal valued at an eye-watering ₹2,00,000 crore ($24.5 billion).
But as the price tag escalates and debates over procurement strategy intensify, many in India’s defense circles are asking: Could a more disciplined, timely push on the indigenous Tejas Mk2 have delivered the same combat strength—at half the cost?
India’s fighter acquisition saga began with the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) tender floated in 2007. The plan then was to buy 126 fighters at a projected cost of ₹42,000 crore ($10.4 billion). The tender was dubbed the “mother of all deals,” attracting global aviation giants.
After years of evaluation, the Dassault Rafale from France emerged as the winner. But contract negotiations collapsed over cost escalations and disagreements on liability for aircraft manufactured in India.
In 2016, India salvaged the situation by signing a €7.87 billion deal for 36 Rafales in flyaway condition. These jets, inducted between 2020 and 2022, significantly enhanced the IAF’s capabilities but did little to bridge the widening squadron gap.
Fast forward to today: the MRFA tender is essentially a rebirth of the MMRCA, but with even fewer jets—114 instead of 126—and at nearly 2.5 times the cost.
The Dassault Rafale remains a frontrunner in the MRFA race. It has already been inducted, its performance is battle-proven, and its interoperability with existing IAF systems is established.
Equipped with an AESA radar, advanced electronic warfare systems, and a formidable weapons package—including the Meteor beyond-visual-range missile—the Rafale is among the most capable 4.5-generation fighters in service globally.
But capability comes at a steep price. If manufactured under the “Make in India” framework, analysts estimate each Rafale could cost over $150 million per unit, once technology transfer, weapons, training, and long-term support are included.
This would make the Rafale one of the most expensive fighters in the world, in the same league as the American F-35 stealth fighter—except the Rafale is not a stealth platform.
Standing in sharp contrast is the Tejas Mk2, a medium-weight, 4.5-generation fighter designed by India’s Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) and manufactured by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).
The Mk2 builds on lessons learned from the Tejas Mk1 Light Combat Aircraft (LCA), already in IAF service. Compared to the Mk1, the Mk2 is a much larger, more powerful jet—17.5 tons in weight, powered by the advanced GE F414 engine, with greater payload capacity, a modern AESA radar, and compatibility with a wide range of weapons, both Indian and foreign.
Crucially, the Tejas Mk2’s estimated cost is around $70–80 million per unit—roughly half the price of a Rafale. This means that for the cost of 114 Rafales, India could theoretically procure nearly 250 Tejas Mk2s, creating 12 to 13 squadrons instead of six.
Such numbers could restore the IAF’s sanctioned squadron strength and even provide a buffer for future attrition.
The catch? Timelines. The Tejas Mk2 has suffered repeated delays. Originally envisioned as a modest upgrade to the Tejas Mk1, shifting IAF requirements and major redesigns stretched its development cycle. Today, its first flight is projected for 2027, with squadron service unlikely before the early 2030s.
Critics argue that had the program been sanctioned earlier and executed with discipline, the Mk2 could already be flying in operational squadrons—saving billions and reducing dependence on imports.
The Tejas Mk2’s troubled timeline tells a story of shifting priorities and lack of foresight. In the early 2000s, when the Mk2 was first conceptualized, the plan was for a relatively simple, timely upgrade. But the IAF kept revising its requirements:
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Increased payload capacity
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Greater fuel range
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Integration of heavier weapons
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More advanced avionics
Each change led to significant redesigns. What started as an incremental upgrade morphed into an entirely new medium-weight fighter program.
The result: the Tejas Mk2 is far more capable than originally envisioned—but also much later than originally planned.
Only in September 2022 did the government’s Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) formally sanction the program, years after many experts had urged decisive approval.
The MRFA procurement boils down to a fundamental question: Should India spend nearly $25 billion on six squadrons of foreign jets—or invest the same amount into building 12+ squadrons of indigenous fighters?
The Rafale undeniably offers unmatched capability today. Its systems are combat-proven, its logistics pipeline is established, and it provides the IAF with a qualitative edge against adversaries.
But the Tejas Mk2 offers long-term strategic and economic advantages:
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Cost-effectiveness: Twice as many jets for the same budget.
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Indigenous control: Full ownership of maintenance, upgrades, and weapon integration.
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Operational independence: Easy integration of Indian weapons like the Astra air-to-air missile and the upcoming BrahMos-NG cruise missile.
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Industrial benefits: Boosting India’s domestic defence industry, creating jobs, and fostering innovation.
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Technological stepping stone: Serving as a bridge to the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), India’s fifth-generation fighter program.
India’s push for Atmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India) has made indigenous defence production a strategic priority. Defence is not just about firepower—it’s about economic sovereignty.
Spending ₹2,00,000 crore on foreign jets means the bulk of that money flows abroad. In contrast, channeling it into a domestic program like the Tejas Mk2 keeps funds circulating within the Indian economy, strengthening the defence-industrial base and encouraging private sector participation.
Moreover, reliance on foreign fighters often comes with limitations: restrictions on software codes, conditions on weapon integration, and dependence on external suppliers for spare parts and upgrades. Indigenous platforms avoid these pitfalls.
The debate has split India’s defence community into two camps.
Pro-Rafale camp:
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Argues that the IAF needs proven capability now, not a decade later.
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Points to China’s rapid induction of advanced fighters like the J-20 stealth jet.
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Warns that delays in Tejas Mk2 could leave India dangerously exposed in the near term.
Pro-Tejas camp:
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Stresses the importance of numbers: India needs more squadrons, not just elite ones.
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Emphasizes cost-effectiveness and strategic autonomy.
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Argues that continued import-dependence undermines Atmanirbhar Bharat.
Some analysts suggest a middle road. Instead of committing the full ₹2,00,000 crore to foreign fighters, India could:
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Acquire a smaller batch of Rafales to meet immediate needs and maintain deterrence.
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Simultaneously accelerate Tejas Mk2 development and production, with larger orders placed once the aircraft is ready.
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Ensure the MRFA program includes strict transfer-of-technology clauses that benefit indigenous projects.
Such a hybrid strategy could balance immediate operational readiness with long-term self-reliance.
The Tejas Mk2 saga highlights broader lessons for India’s defence planning:
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Stable requirements: Constantly shifting specifications delay projects and inflate costs.
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Timely approvals: Early political and financial sanction is critical to avoid cascading delays.
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Industrial ecosystem: Building capacity in suppliers, private industry, and R&D institutions is essential.
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Strategic patience: Indigenous programs may take longer initially but pay off in autonomy and cost savings.
India today faces a defining choice in its airpower strategy. The Rafale offers capability today but dependence tomorrow. The Tejas Mk2 promises self-reliance tomorrow but vulnerability today.
With tensions simmering on the northern borders and the IAF’s squadron strength at a historic low, the decision cannot be delayed much longer.
What is clear, however, is that the cost of indecision has already been immense. Had the Tejas Mk2 been prioritized earlier, India might not have needed to reopen a $25-billion foreign tender at all.
