When Myanmar’s military seized power on February 1, 2021, overthrowing the elected National League for Democracy (NLD) government, the generals claimed they were safeguarding the country’s stability. Four years later, Myanmar is anything but stable.
The coup and subsequent formation of the State Administration Council (SAC) have unraveled the delicate socioeconomic foundations painstakingly built during the quasi-reform years of the 2010s. Institutions that once pointed—however imperfectly—toward democratic governance and economic modernization have collapsed.
The World Bank now forecasts a 2.5 percent contraction in GDP in fiscal year 2025–26, underscoring the magnitude of Myanmar’s economic tailspin. Such contraction is not merely a number. It translates into joblessness, poverty, and despair for millions. For the country’s young people in particular, it signals a deepening human capital crisis—a systemic erosion of the skills, education, and future prospects that sustain a nation’s long-term development.
No demographic has borne the brunt of the post-coup collapse more than Myanmar’s youth. Children and young adults face a grim convergence of crises:
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Human rights violations including arbitrary arrests, torture, and forced recruitment into military ranks.
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Conflict exposure, as fighting spreads far beyond traditional ethnic borderlands into Myanmar’s heartland.
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Educational collapse, with schools shuttered, occupied by soldiers, or bombed in airstrikes.
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Economic precarity, as jobs disappear and future career paths shrink.
A recent survey by local civil society groups revealed that around four in ten young people—particularly those with university degrees—express the intent to emigrate if given the chance. This is not mere wanderlust. For many, leaving is the only conceivable path toward safety and livelihood. For Myanmar, however, it means the loss of its most educated generation.
“We are watching the future of Myanmar walk out the door,” said an education activist in Yangon, speaking on condition of anonymity due to security risks. “If they go, the country may not recover for decades.”
Myanmar’s socioeconomic breakdown has both newly created drivers and longstanding structural weaknesses.
The new drivers:
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The 2021 coup itself, which dismantled investor confidence and halted ongoing reforms.
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A worsening security environment, with armed conflicts choking commerce and transport.
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SAC economic manipulation, in which policy decisions are crafted not for macroeconomic stability but for regime survival.
Concrete examples abound:
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Import substitution policies that choke supply chains and inflate consumer prices.
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State-enforced defaults on foreign lenders, severing Myanmar from international credit markets.
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Excessive military spending, diverting scarce resources to weapons instead of welfare.
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Overprinting of currency, which has triggered double-digit inflation.
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Exploitation of foreign exchange reserves, leaving the kyat in free fall.
The old fault lines—long predating the coup—are being magnified. Myanmar’s rocky transition to a market economy, plagued by military dominance and crony capitalism, has entrenched inefficiency and corruption. The same oligarchic networks that profited during the 1990s sanctions era now thrive under today’s sanctions circumvention schemes.
The outcome is plain: inflated consumer prices, collapsing purchasing power, mass job losses, and shrinking opportunities. A once-promising youth cohort is being denied a future.
As if political and economic turmoil were not enough, Myanmar suffered a catastrophic earthquake in March 2025. Striking near Naypyidaw, the tremor destroyed infrastructure, displaced hundreds of thousands, and overwhelmed already fragile state services.
Relief efforts faltered almost immediately. Aid convoys were blocked by military checkpoints. Opposition-held areas were deliberately starved of assistance. The quake compounded Myanmar’s human capital crisis by destroying schools, clinics, and workplaces—further cutting off access to education and healthcare.
Perhaps no sector illustrates Myanmar’s unraveling more starkly than education.
Before the coup, Myanmar’s schools were fragile but functional. Literacy rates were improving, and higher education enrollment was slowly rising. The coup reversed this trajectory almost overnight.
Teachers and students became frontline participants in the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), refusing to recognize military authority. In response, the SAC retaliated with arrests, torture, and dismissal of thousands of educators. Schools were shuttered or turned into military bases.
By mid-2025, the statistics are dire:
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Only 47 percent of school-aged children are enrolled.
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Nearly 7 million children are out of school.
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Whole regions have lost entire generations of qualified teachers.
The military has further militarized education by imposing indoctrination programs and mandatory conscription. In some areas, high school graduates are immediately funneled into military service.
The damage is profound. Myanmar’s children are not only missing out on education—they are being actively weaponized by a regime determined to cling to power.
International aid might have softened these blows, but in Myanmar even humanitarian lifelines are obstructed.
Delivering aid into opposition-held territories is perilous. Convoys face checkpoints, confiscations, airstrikes, and arrests. Bureaucratic hurdles further delay assistance, while internet blackouts make coordination nearly impossible.
The March 2025 earthquake exposed these obstacles vividly. Entire villages waited weeks for emergency food and medical aid, while military-affiliated businesses received relief within days.
Meanwhile, global politics have undercut the sustainability of aid programs. The return of U.S. President Donald Trump in 2025 has heralded a revival of the “America First” doctrine, leading to cuts in foreign aid. Several U.S.-funded humanitarian projects in Myanmar have already been terminated.
The picture is no better in Europe. With the war in Ukraine draining resources, major donors have diverted aid budgets toward defense spending. The result: Myanmar’s humanitarian crisis is among the world’s most underfunded, with the UN’s 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan receiving just 12 percent of its required funding.
For over 100,000 refugees in Thailand, the impact is devastating. Food rations have been slashed. Medical clinics are closing. Vulnerable families are left with nothing.
The dire trajectory of Myanmar’s human capital crisis cannot be reversed by humanitarian aid alone. The structural roots—military dominance, cronyism, and institutional collapse—demand political transformation.
That transformation hinges on Myanmar’s opposition. Since 2021, resistance has taken many forms: armed insurgency in the jungles, civil disobedience in the cities, underground education networks, and exiled government structures like the National Unity Government (NUG).
Yet coordination remains fragile. Factionalism, ethnic divides, and resource constraints have hampered the opposition’s ability to present a united front.
Analysts argue that two forms of capability are now critical:
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Internal capabilities — coherent policy coordination, adherence to democratic norms, and genuine inclusivity across Myanmar’s ethnic spectrum.
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External capabilities — proactive diplomacy to secure recognition, sanctions enforcement, and targeted aid from the international community.
Without these twin pillars, opposition forces risk being dismissed as fragmented and ineffective. With them, however, the opposition could credibly challenge the junta’s legitimacy both domestically and abroad.
Myanmar’s crisis is not only about politics and economics. At its heart, it is about people. Human capital—the knowledge, skills, and health of its population—is the engine of national development.
Right now, that engine is broken. Children are out of school. Young professionals are leaving in droves. Families are trapped in poverty. Refugees languish without support.
If these trends continue, Myanmar risks becoming a failed state not only politically but demographically. The loss of a generation of educated youth could set back the country’s development for half a century.
“We are not just losing the present,” said a Yangon-based economist. “We are losing the future.”
The path forward is fraught but not impossible. Several imperatives stand out:
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International donors must re-prioritize Myanmar despite global distractions. Even modest increases in funding could stabilize refugee populations and preserve education in exile.
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Regional actors, especially ASEAN, must move beyond neutrality and engage the opposition constructively. Without Southeast Asian buy-in, Myanmar’s crisis will spill over borders in the form of refugees and instability.
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Opposition groups must consolidate, proving that they can govern inclusively and responsibly. Unity is not optional—it is existential.
Most importantly, Myanmar’s people—particularly its young—must remain at the center of any solution. Protecting their rights, education, and future prospects is not only a moral imperative but also the only path toward rebuilding the nation’s shattered foundations.
Four years after the coup, Myanmar stands on the brink. Its economy is shrinking, its schools are collapsing, its youth are fleeing, and its humanitarian crisis is underfunded and obstructed.
The result is a profound human capital crisis—the slow death of a nation’s future.
Reversing this trajectory will require more than aid drops or sanctions. It will require a credible political alternative that can unify Myanmar’s fractured society and win international recognition. Only then can the country hope to embark on the structural reforms necessary to rebuild its economy, restore its education system, and reclaim its future.
