The world’s most consequential climate summit, Cop30, has opened in the steamy Amazonian port city of Belém, Brazil. Amid rainforest heat and political tension, negotiators from nearly 200 countries have gathered to decide the planet’s next steps against climate catastrophe. Yet, the tone is far from celebratory. Ten years after the landmark Paris Agreement, optimism has been replaced by deepening fractures — over who acts, who pays, and who suffers most.
For many delegates, the setting itself is symbolic. Belém lies at the gateway to the Amazon rainforest, often described as the “lungs of the planet.” But even this symbolism has done little to unite nations facing stalled negotiations, conflicting priorities, and a growing sense that global climate diplomacy is running out of time.
In June, preliminary talks ended in disarray, with outcome documents marked by phrases like “not agreed,” “open to revision,” or “without formal status.” Those meetings, held in Bonn, Germany, exposed the widening gulf between rich and poor nations, a divide that has haunted the UN climate process since its inception.
The backdrop is troubling. Cop29 in Azerbaijan was widely considered a failure, producing few actionable commitments and deep resentment over how the final text was adopted. This year’s summit has inherited that legacy — and the scars are visible.
At the heart of Cop30 is the question of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — the pledges each country makes to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Under the Paris framework, nations must submit updated NDCs every five years to reflect their “highest possible ambition.”
Yet, as of November 2025, only 79 countries, representing 64% of global emissions, have done so. Key absentees include major polluters such as India, while the United States, having once again withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, is notably absent from high-level participation.
This gap is more than procedural. Without updated NDCs, global efforts to cap warming below 1.5°C remain doomed. Current trajectories, even if all promises are met, point toward nearly 3°C of warming — a level scientists warn would be catastrophic for human and ecological systems alike.
“Every year we delay ambition, we lock in irreversible damage,” said one negotiator from the Pacific island nations, visibly frustrated as the opening plenary dragged on. “For us, this isn’t about 2050 targets — it’s about survival.”
Money, as always, is the summit’s most divisive topic. At Cop29, countries agreed to pledge US$300 billion per year by 2035 to help developing nations adapt and transition. It was a symbolic win but a practical disappointment — far short of the US$1.3 trillion that developing countries had requested.
This year, discussions over climate finance have reached a breaking point. Many countries argue that wealthy nations, responsible for most historical emissions, have failed to deliver even the previous US$100 billion annual target set a decade ago.
“Climate finance cannot be charity,” India’s environment minister declared in a fiery pre-summit press briefing. “It is a moral and legal responsibility.”
But frustration isn’t limited to the developing world. European negotiators point to fiscal constraints and geopolitical pressures — including wars, energy crises, and slowing growth — that make large-scale commitments politically difficult at home.
Without a clear financing framework, adaptation projects in vulnerable regions — from African drought prevention to South Asian flood defences — remain underfunded and delayed. The risk is that climate diplomacy could once again fracture along familiar lines: the wealthy North versus the vulnerable South.
The concept of a just transition — ensuring fairness as the world shifts away from fossil fuels — remains hotly contested. Wealthy countries, led by the EU and Canada, want a narrow focus on labour issues, retraining workers in oil, coal, and gas industries. Developing nations, including China, South Africa, and several Latin American states, argue that this definition is far too limited.
For them, a just transition must mean systemic economic reform, addressing structural inequality, colonial-era debt, and access to green technologies. “We cannot talk about justice if we are denied the means to transition,” said one African Union delegate.
The dispute first flared at Cop28 and worsened at Cop29, where talks broke down over wording. At Bonn this year, chairs tried to impose order — enforcing strict speaking times and cutting repetitive interventions. An “informal note” was produced, but it lacked any binding language or agreed definitions.
The result? The UN process remains without consensus on what “just transition” truly means. Without that clarity, critics warn the phrase risks becoming empty political branding rather than a framework for equitable climate action.
Hosting Cop30 in Belém has placed the Amazon rainforest — and tropical forests globally — at the heart of negotiations. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has proposed the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, a new funding mechanism aimed at raising US$125 billion to reward nations for preserving forests and biodiversity.
The proposal is ambitious and aligns with Lula’s broader environmental agenda, but early signals suggest limited buy-in. The United Kingdom has already declined to participate, even as reports highlight its growing role in global deforestation through supply chains in beef, soy, and palm oil.
Scientists stress the Amazon’s planetary importance: it stores carbon equivalent to 20 years of global emissions, houses 10% of all known species, and provides critical rainfall regulation for South America. Yet, deforestation continues, driven by agribusiness and illegal mining.
“If Cop30 delivers on forest protection, it could be a rare breakthrough,” said Marina Silva, Brazil’s environment minister. “If not, we risk losing the Amazon’s ability to regenerate — and with it, a stable climate.”
Ironically, while Cop30’s theme is inclusion, its logistics tell another story. Belém’s limited infrastructure and soaring accommodation prices have made attendance prohibitively expensive for many delegations from the Global South. Activists warn that this will further marginalize poorer nations and Indigenous voices.
Around 3,000 Indigenous representatives are expected to attend, but their presence contrasts sharply with another group: fossil fuel lobbyists. Last year’s Cop29 saw a record number of lobbyists accredited — outnumbering nearly every national delegation. Reports suggest that trend will continue in Belém.
“The same corporations fueling the crisis are sitting at the negotiation table,” said an Indigenous leader from Ecuador’s Amazon basin. “That’s not democracy — that’s hypocrisy.”
UN officials insist that participation rules are transparent, but critics argue that industry-linked actors often fail to disclose affiliations, undermining public trust in the process.
Ten years after Paris, the climate clock is ticking faster than diplomacy. Global emissions hit record highs in 2024, and new scientific models show that even if all current pledges are met, the world is on track for widespread crop failures, mass displacement, and intensified extreme weather events by mid-century.
Cop30 was supposed to mark a turning point — a decade of delivery. Instead, it risks becoming another missed opportunity unless leaders bridge political divides and back promises with real resources.
For host nation Brazil, the stakes are particularly high. Lula has cast Cop30 as a defining moment for the Global South to reclaim leadership in climate governance. “The Amazon is our home,” he told delegates during the opening ceremony. “But it is also your future. Protecting it must be a collective duty.”
As negotiations begin, optimism remains cautious at best. The summit’s outcome will hinge on whether countries can overcome distrust — between North and South, between ambition and affordability, between rhetoric and reality.
If they fail, the Amazonian air that now hosts the world’s negotiators may soon carry the weight of history’s judgment: another chance squandered in humanity’s fight to save its only home.
