India’s push to position the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) as a globally competitive export fighter, fresh reports indicate that Armenia has suspended ongoing negotiations to acquire the Tejas Mk-1A following the devastating crash at the Dubai Airshow 2025. The development has sent ripples through the international defence community, particularly as Yerevan had been regarded as one of New Delhi’s most promising prospective customers.
The crash, which claimed the life of Indian Air Force (IAF) pilot Wing Commander Namansh Syal, occurred during a high-visibility aerobatic display on November 21 at one of the world’s most prestigious aviation events. Its timing could not have been more damaging for India: HAL and the Ministry of Defence had been intensively promoting the Tejas as a cost-effective, multirole 4.5-generation aircraft aimed at emerging air forces seeking modern but affordable fighters.
Armenia had been considering the procurement of up to 20 Tejas Mk-1A fighters—a potential USD 1.2 billion (RM 5.1 billion) deal that would have ranked among India’s largest-ever fighter aircraft exports. Sources familiar with the matter say the suspension was initiated shortly after graphic footage of the crash went viral online, prompting Armenian defence planners to reassess whether the Tejas met their stringent operational and survivability requirements.
The fatal accident occurred when the Tejas, performing an aerobatic routine, reportedly entered a negative-G manoeuvre involving an inverted roll or tight low-altitude turn below 500 feet. Eyewitnesses observed the aircraft suddenly lose aerodynamic stability and pitch into an unrecoverable nose-down descent before exploding upon impact.
Wing Commander Syal, 34, an experienced IAF test pilot with more than 2,000 flying hours, was killed instantly. The crash marked the Tejas programme’s first fatal accident and its second recorded incident since a non-fatal ejection in 2021.
While investigations are ongoing, preliminary speculation has focused on possible fly-by-wire anomalies, control-surface malfunction, or aerodynamic stall characteristics inherent to delta-wing fighters during extreme manoeuvres close to the ground. Analysts caution that the pilot may have exceeded the aircraft’s safe demonstration envelope, though only a full court of inquiry and analysis of the flight data recorder (FDR) and cockpit voice recorder (CVR) will determine the definitive cause.
The Dubai Airshow resumed just two hours after the crash, triggering criticism from aviation safety experts who argued that standard procedures call for temporary suspension following fatal demonstration accidents.
The timing of the accident was particularly sensitive for Armenia, which has been urgently modernising its air force following its defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Yerevan faces a rapidly evolving threat environment shaped by Azerbaijan’s heavy investment in Turkish-made UCAVs, Israeli loitering munitions, precision-guided weapons, and persistent ISR drones.
Armenia’s airpower fleet—comprising ageing Soviet-era MiG-29s and Su-25s—has been deemed insufficient against Azerbaijan’s drone-centric doctrine. Yerevan had shown strong interest in the Tejas Mk-1A due to its flexible multirole profile, relatively low cost, and India’s willingness to customise the platform with enhanced electronic warfare suites optimised for counter-UAV operations.
However, the crash prompted Armenian officials to pause the negotiation process and reassess whether the Tejas’ flight-control architecture and operational maturity align with Armenia’s demanding security needs. Armenian defence circles were reportedly alarmed by the aircraft’s apparent inability to recover from a low-altitude manoeuvre, raising concerns about safety margins, flight-envelope robustness, and reliability under high-stress conditions.
Yerevan is now believed to be re-evaluating alternatives:
South Korea’s KAI FA-50, priced at USD 30–35 million per unit, which has secured widespread export momentum.
France’s Dassault Rafale, considered a premier deep-strike platform, though well beyond Armenia’s fiscal capacity.
An Indian-upgraded Su-30MKI package, reportedly under advanced discussion for 8–12 aircraft worth USD 3 billion, reflecting a possible strategic pivot toward heavy fighters instead of light-combat jets.
Should Armenia formally discontinue interest in the Tejas, this would mark the second major export setback for the programme in recent years, following reports of Argentina dropping its Tejas evaluation in late 2025.
The suspension poses deeper concerns for New Delhi’s defence export ecosystem. The Indian government has set a target of USD 5 billion in annual defence exports by 2025—an objective heavily predicated on flagship platforms such as the Tejas gaining traction overseas.
The Tejas programme, conceptualised in the 1980s to replace India’s MiG-21s, has endured decades of delays, redesigns, and technical hurdles. While the Mk-1A variant features important upgrades—including the indigenous Uttam AESA radar, modern EW suites, revamped avionics, and improved maintainability—it remains dependent on imported systems such as the GE F404 engine, whose supply chain issues have repeatedly slowed production.
India’s 2021 order of 83 Mk-1A fighters valued at INR 48,000 crore (USD 5.8 billion) reflects the IAF’s urgent need to stabilise its dwindling squadron strength, currently at 29 against an authorised 42. HAL has struggled with delivery timelines, raising further concerns among foreign buyers about long-term sustainment and fleet readiness.
Despite active marketing campaigns in Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East, the Tejas has yet to secure a major export order. Competing platforms—such as the FA-50, Gripen C/D, and Chinese-Pakistani JF-17—benefit from larger production runs, combat-proven histories, and more mature sustainment ecosystems.
Analysts warn that the Dubai crash amplifies persistent buyer concerns regarding:
Flight envelope stability
Maintenance complexity
Spare-parts predictability
Long-term supply chain reliability
Safety culture and operational testing standards
The high visibility of the accident, broadcast instantly worldwide, has magnified its impact on India’s credibility as a defence exporter.
Armenia’s hesitation carries significant geopolitical implications. With Russia’s security role declining following its diversion of resources to Ukraine, Yerevan has intensified defence engagement with India and France. A suspension of Tejas talks could weaken India’s foothold in the South Caucasus—a region increasingly shaped by Turkish military influence and Azerbaijan’s expanding alliance with Pakistan and Israel.
Pivoting toward Western or Korean suppliers could reshape Armenia’s force-modernisation trajectory and shift regional military balance calculations.
Pakistan—India’s regional rival—has already capitalised on the situation, promoting the JF-17’s export record while citing the Tejas crash as evidence of structural weaknesses in India’s indigenous fighter ecosystem.
Despite the setback, defence experts stress that the Tejas remains central to India’s broader aerospace ambitions. The platform serves as a technological stepping stone for more advanced programmes, including:
Tejas Mk-2, a medium-weight fighter
Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), India’s planned fifth-generation stealth fighter
The lessons from the Dubai crash may push India to strengthen its quality-control standards, accelerate indigenous subsystem development, and enhance pilot safety protocols.
India may also prioritise domestic Tejas inductions to build confidence in the platform before aggressively pursuing exports again. The IAF could simultaneously explore interim purchases of Rafales or Su-30MKI upgrades to stabilise combat strength while waiting for the Mk-2 and AMCA to mature.
The Dubai crash underscores the fragility of aerospace reputations in an era of real-time global visibility, where a single incident can reshape international procurement trajectories. Armenia’s reported suspension serves as a sobering reminder that emerging defence suppliers must meet exacting global standards in performance, safety, and industrial reliability.
India’s ability to restore confidence—in part through transparent investigation findings, technical upgrades, and sustained diplomatic engagement—will determine whether the Tejas can recover lost ground and re-emerge as a viable contender in the competitive light-fighter market.
