US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable tariff crusade—framed domestically as a strategy to revive American jobs—appears to be delivering the opposite effect for one of the country’s biggest defense manufacturers. Lockheed Martin, builder of the F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter, is now facing an exodus of customers, cancelled contracts, and an uncertain future for more than USD 100 billion in potential sales.
The irony is striking: while Trump champions American military might and “Make America Great Again” industrial nationalism, the F-35 program—the most expensive weapons system in history, costing an estimated USD 2 trillion over its lifetime—has become a prime casualty of his foreign and economic policies.
Even before Trump returned to the White House in January, Lockheed Martin was grappling with ballooning maintenance bills, delays in the critical TR-3 upgrade, engine modernization setbacks, and rising production costs. But in 2025, the biggest threat to the F-35 has not come from technical issues. It has come from Washington.
Trump’s escalating tariff wars, his public threats against allies, and his erratic stance on NATO have pushed multiple countries to either cancel or reconsider previously signed F-35 contracts—some of them years in the making.
Despite the jet’s combat performance during Israel’s 12-day war with Iran in June—where F-35Is conducted deep strikes, SEAD/DEAD missions, and escorted B-2 stealth bombers—the geopolitical fallout from Trump’s policies has overshadowed these battlefield successes.
As a result, three countries have cancelled orders in 2025, one has suspended a major contract for review, and one has rejected the jet outright. Combined, Lockheed Martin has already lost 150 confirmed F-35 sales this year and faces uncertainty over an additional 72 jets.
The first blow came in March when Portugal scrapped its plan to buy up to 36 F-35As. Lisbon’s air force had recommended the aircraft, but outgoing Defence Minister Nuno Melo pointed directly to the United States’ reliability as an ally.
“The world has changed,” Melo warned, noting that US political unpredictability, restrictions on aircraft usage, and changing NATO dynamics made European alternatives more appealing. Portugal is now considering Rafale, Eurofighter, or Gripen fighters.
Politico described the move as “one of the first examples of the U.S. president undermining a potential lucrative arms deal.”
In July, a 39% US tariff on Swiss watches, coffee capsules, and other goods triggered political uproar in Switzerland, where lawmakers questioned the wisdom of proceeding with a USD 6 billion deal for 36 F-35A jets—signed back in 2022.
Green Party leader Balthasar Glättli blasted the contradiction: “A country which throws rocks at us in trade shouldn’t get a present.”
Though the contract remains intact as of November, Bern is now renegotiating pricing, and internal pressure remains intense.
In August, Spain cancelled its 2023 €6.25 billion allocation for up to 65 F-35s. While Madrid had initially eyed the A and B variants to replace its Hornet and Harrier fleets, Trump’s demand that all NATO countries spend 5% of GDP on defense ignited a public spat.
Spain currently targets 2% spending and bristled at Washington’s pressure campaign. Madrid says it will now pursue Eurofighter upgrades or the future FCAS sixth-generation system.
Trump offered F-35s to India earlier this year, shortly after India’s four-day conflict with Pakistan. But the proposal was dead on arrival.
With Trump imposing a stunning 50% tariff on Indian exports and repeatedly provoking New Delhi, the Modi government dismissed the F-35 option despite China reportedly equipping Pakistan with its new J-35A stealth fighters.
New Delhi is now focusing on Russia’s Su-57 as its only viable fifth-generation contender.
Perhaps the biggest potential setback is unfolding in Canada, where a 2023 deal to acquire 88 F-35s is under formal review. Ottawa is reassessing whether the aircraft still aligns with Canada’s defense and sovereignty needs “in light of evolving geopolitics.”
Sensing a once-in-a-generation opening, Sweden has launched a full-scale charm offensive to sell Saab Gripens, promising to turn Canada into a production hub and create 10,000 domestic jobs.
Industry Minister Mélanie Joly openly questioned whether the F-35 deal has delivered sufficient economic benefits, calling Saab’s offer “very interesting.” If Canada cancels the remaining 72 jets, it would represent the single largest loss ever for the F-35 program.
The only bright spot for Lockheed in 2025 is Saudi Arabia’s revived interest in acquiring the F-35. Riyadh has sought the jet for years, and Trump has now signaled approval. But the deal still requires congressional backing—and faces fierce Israeli opposition, human rights criticism, and skepticism even within allied militaries.
When Trump returned tariffs against allies—from India to Switzerland, Canada to the EU—few anticipated the collateral damage to America’s premier fighter program. But the global backlash has been swift.
Between cancellations, renegotiations, and open reconsiderations, more than USD 100 billion worth of F-35 contracts are now at risk.
