Australia’s prestigious Lowy Institute has, for the first time, formally designated India as a ‘Major Power’ in its newly released Asia Power Index 2025, marking a significant milestone for New Delhi’s strategic rise. Ranked overall as the third most powerful country in Asia, behind only the United States and China, India has crossed the 40-point threshold required for major power status—up from 39.1 last year, which had kept it in the “middle power” category.
India’s comprehensive power score now stands at 40.0, reflecting what the report calls the country’s “steady but under-realised growth trajectory,” with its influence still trailing the vast potential of its resources. Yet a combination of military, economic and cultural gains—particularly India’s battlefield performance during Operation Sindoor in May—helped propel the country into a higher strategic tier.
The Lowy report’s findings come amid a broader reassessment of India’s capabilities by several Australian research institutions, including a separate government-affiliated study that closely examined India’s decisive four-day conflict with Pakistan earlier this year.
A major contributor to India’s improved standing was its operational success during Operation Sindoor, a short but intense conflict in May 2025. The Lowy Institute notes that India recorded one of the highest annual improvements in military capability—+2.8 points—with analysts citing enhanced airpower, rapid deployment capability, and stronger expert appraisals of India’s combat performance.
This aligns with a recent report by Australia’s Air and Space Power Center, which offers one of the most detailed foreign assessments of the conflict so far. According to the think tank, India achieved all four of its stated and implicit objectives in the brief war:
Neutralising terrorist training infrastructure in Pakistan on the very first night of operations.
Demonstrating the effectiveness of India’s layered air defence network, which successfully intercepted Pakistan’s retaliatory strikes.
Showing that Pakistan’s eastern airbases—critical for its air operations—would become unusable if hostilities persisted.
Implicitly winning the air superiority battle, particularly after India established nighttime aerial dominance on May 9.
The report also highlights India’s successful interception of Pakistan’s Fatah-I and Fatah-II missiles—including a 400 km-range Fatah-II rocket aimed at Delhi, shot down over Sirsa—as well as “hundreds of drones,” which collectively demonstrated the sophistication of India’s air defence architecture.
Central to this performance, analysts say, was the Akashteer automated air defence control system, which coordinated radar, missile, and air-defence units with unprecedented real-time efficiency.
The Indian Air Force’s stand-off precision strikes against 11 high-value Pakistani airbases further cemented its role as India’s most potent instrument of national power—an assessment shared by the World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft (WDMMA), which recently ranked India above China in airpower.
The 2025 Index reveals a dramatic shift in the regional balance: while the US remains Asia’s most powerful nation, its comprehensive score has dropped by 1.2 points, the largest annual decline recorded for any country since 2018.
The report attributes this fall to a mixture of long-term structural changes and policy choices under President Donald Trump’s second administration. The White House’s “whimsical tariff policy”, including a stunning 50% tariff on India, has strained several of Washington’s key strategic partnerships.
The most high-profile casualty of the diplomatic rift is the QUAD Summit, originally scheduled to take place in India this November but now postponed indefinitely.
“The Trump administration’s policies have been a net negative for US power in Asia,” the report notes, adding that the full consequences “will only be felt in the years ahead.”
The US still commands the highest influence in diplomatic networks and defence cooperation, but its once comfortable lead is now eroding.
In contrast to the US downturn, China has gained one full point, continuing a long-term upward trend. The report states that China is “well positioned to withstand coercive US economic policies” and is increasingly perceived as a “reliable partner” amid uncertainties surrounding Washington’s regional strategy.
Despite its slower economic growth, China has significantly expanded its maritime and air warfare capabilities. The Lowy Institute notes that the US lead in military capability is now two-thirds of what it was in 2017—a striking indication of China’s military modernisation drive.
India is now the only major power below the two superpowers, ahead of 15 regional middle powers led by Japan. Yet the report stresses that India continues to face structural limitations, particularly in the areas of diplomacy and defence partnerships.
India’s scores in economic capability, military strength, and cultural influence improved in 2025. Its cultural influence alone saw a jump of +2.8, reflecting both global interest in Indian media and expanded diplomatic outreach formats.
However, India’s diplomatic relationships and defence networks did not improve proportionally. India’s weakening ties with the US—its single most crucial strategic partner—are a significant factor behind this stagnation.
The report concludes:
“The overall picture for India that emerges from the Asia Power Index is mixed: India’s own power is increasing slowly, but gaps remain between the country’s ambition and the reality of continued limits on its influence, particularly relative to China.”
One of the surprises in this year’s Index is Russia’s rise to fifth place, overtaking Australia. Russian power in Asia is “rebounding,” the report says, driven by strong support from China and North Korea, with which Moscow has deepened political, military, and economic ties.
Meanwhile, Australia’s standing has declined, even as it continues to be one of the region’s most active diplomatic players. Lowy attributes this drop to shrinking economic and military resources “relative to other countries,” meaning Canberra will have to “work harder with what it has to maintain influence.”
Australia now ranks sixth, followed by:
South Korea (7th)
Singapore (8th)
Indonesia (9th)
Malaysia (10th)
Pakistan, despite its active conflicts with India and Afghanistan, ranks 16th, behind Taiwan, the Philippines, New Zealand, Vietnam, and Thailand.
For India, the Lowy Institute’s 2025 assessment marks a major symbolic breakthrough. Its economic growth, enhanced military sophistication, and demonstrated operational capabilities have collectively elevated its stature.
But the Index also underscores the enduring challenge India faces: the vast and widening capability gap with China, whose comprehensive power score stands at 73.7, far above India’s 40.0.
India’s military gains—particularly during Operation Sindoor—have significantly boosted its profile. Yet unless New Delhi can strengthen its diplomatic networks, rebuild strategic ties with Washington, and expand defence cooperation beyond bilateral arrangements, its rise may remain powerful but incomplete.
Still, for the first time, the Lowy Institute has placed India firmly in the league of Asia’s major powers—a development that mirrors India’s growing role on the regional and global stage.
