Myanmar’s military-led administration is set to begin a multi-phased general election on Sunday, pressing ahead with polls that many analysts, Western governments and human rights groups have dismissed as a bid to entrench military rule rather than restore democracy, as a brutal civil war continues to engulf much of the country.
The election will unfold in three stages — on December 28, January 11 and January 25 — covering 265 townships out of Myanmar’s total 330. Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing has openly acknowledged that voting will not be held nationwide, citing security concerns and the military’s limited control over large swathes of territory contested by ethnic armed groups and anti-junta militias.
The polls come nearly five years after the military ousted the elected government of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi in a February 2021 coup, abruptly ending a decade-long experiment with semi-civilian rule. Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) had been preparing to begin a second term after a landslide victory in the November 2020 election, when generals seized power alleging widespread electoral fraud.
Those allegations were rejected by Suu Kyi and the NLD and contradicted by international election observers, who reported no significant irregularities. Suu Kyi, senior NLD figures and thousands of activists were detained, while mass protests against military rule were met with a violent crackdown that spiralled into nationwide armed resistance.
The junta initially pledged to hold elections by August 2023 and return the country to a democratic system. That timeline was repeatedly delayed as the Tatmadaw — Myanmar’s powerful armed forces — suffered major battlefield losses, particularly since late 2023, when coordinated offensives by ethnic armies and newly formed resistance groups overran military bases, border crossings and key trade routes.
In the run-up to the polls, the election commission dissolved dozens of political parties, including the NLD, for failing to re-register under a new electoral law introduced by the junta. Most opposition groups and armed resistance movements have refused to participate, calling the process illegitimate.
As a result, only six parties are contesting the election nationwide, while 51 others are competing in a single state or region. The dominant force is the military’s proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which is fielding 1,018 candidates — roughly a fifth of all those registered.
The USDP, led largely by former generals, won the last election organised by a junta in 2010, but was overwhelmingly defeated by the NLD in the relatively freer polls of 2015 and 2020. Both of those results were annulled after the coup.
Voting will be conducted using a combination of electoral systems, including first-past-the-post, proportional representation and mixed-member proportional representation, a departure from the simple plurality system used in previous elections. The military-backed election commission has said more than 50,000 electronic voting machines will be used to speed up counting, though it has not announced dates for vote tallying or the release of results.
Under Myanmar’s army-drafted 2008 constitution, the military is guaranteed 25% of seats in both houses of parliament, filled by serving officers appointed by the commander-in-chief. This bloc gives the Tatmadaw effective veto power over constitutional changes and significant influence over the formation of a government.
Once voting begins, parliament must convene within 90 days. Speakers of the upper and lower houses will be elected, followed by the selection of a president through an indirect system designed to protect military interests. Three electoral colleges — one from the upper house, one from the lower house and one composed entirely of military appointees — each nominate a presidential candidate. Lawmakers then vote in a joint session, with the top vote-getter becoming president and the two runners-up appointed vice presidents.
With the military’s guaranteed seats and the USDP expected to dominate among elected lawmakers, analysts say the process virtually ensures continued Tatmadaw control over the executive, judiciary and civil service, regardless of who formally occupies the presidency.
From inside a military base last week, Min Aung Hlaing made little effort to disguise that reality. State-run media reported that he urged voters to back candidates who could “cooperate with the Tatmadaw,” underscoring the junta’s determination to use ballots to achieve what it has failed to secure militarily — political dominance and a veneer of legitimacy.
“The comments underline the junta’s attempt to cement control through elections, while the war continues unabated,” said Richard Horsey, Senior Myanmar Adviser at the International Crisis Group. “A new iteration of indirect military rule will do nothing to resolve the armed conflict or civil resistance, and Myanmar will remain mired in crisis.”
Despite such warnings, junta-controlled media have portrayed the election as a necessary step toward stability. The state-run Global New Light of Myanmar newspaper argued this week that critics were wrong to judge the polls against Western democratic standards.
“For ordinary citizens, this election — however imperfect — is an exit strategy from the state of emergency and a path back into a legal framework,” the paper said, reflecting the military’s narrative that elections, rather than dialogue with opponents, are the solution to the country’s turmoil.
Myanmar’s modern history suggests otherwise. Since independence from Britain in 1948, the military has dominated politics for most of the country’s existence, with successive generals ruling through coups, one-party systems or tightly controlled elections. Min Aung Hlaing joined that lineage in 2021, citing unproven claims of electoral fraud to justify the overthrow of a popular civilian government.
“The military is incapable of anything but cosmetic change that will not threaten their core interests of central control,” said David Mathieson, an independent Myanmar analyst. “Elections under these conditions are designed to preserve power, not share it.”
Even within pro-military circles, uncertainty remains over whether Min Aung Hlaing himself will seek the presidency or rule from behind the scenes. Political analyst Sai Kyi Zin Soe noted that the USDP already has established civilian figures, potentially complicating the general’s path to the top office.
“While it is likely that a national leader will emerge from the military-aligned USDP, we have to wait and see if that leader will be Min Aung Hlaing,” he said, adding that regardless of titles, the commander-in-chief is expected to retain decisive influence.
Supporters of the election often point to the 2010 polls, when the Tatmadaw installed former general Thein Sein as a civilian president, eventually ushering in reforms that surprised critics, including the release of political prisoners and the 2015 election that brought Suu Kyi to power.
But analysts caution against drawing parallels. Unlike 2010, Myanmar is now engulfed in unprecedented violence, with a nationwide resistance movement allied with long-standing ethnic armed groups challenging the military across multiple fronts.
“Rather than stabilising the country, military-orchestrated elections are likely to intensify violence while failing to generate durable political or economic stability,” said Ye Myo Hein, a senior fellow at the Southeast Asia Peace Institute.
International reaction has been overwhelmingly critical. The United Nations, human rights groups and many Western governments have labelled the election a sham. Britain told the UN Security Council this week that “any meaningful election requires an end to violence and dialogue amongst all parties concerned,” adding there was no indication the polls would be free or fair.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), of which Myanmar is a member, has called for a fair and inclusive election but has warned that re-engagement would be difficult without dialogue and the release of political prisoners, including Suu Kyi. Thailand’s foreign minister echoed that view last month, saying the lack of inclusivity undermined the process.
Nevertheless, Min Aung Hlaing has embarked on an energetic diplomatic push, making multiple visits to key allies China and Russia, both of which back the election. State media have also reported support from India, reflecting a regional divide over how to deal with Myanmar’s generals.
The junta has brushed aside criticism, insisting the polls reflect popular will. “The election is being conducted for the people of Myanmar, not for the international community,” spokesman Zaw Min Tun said earlier this month. “Whether the international community is satisfied or not is irrelevant.”
As voting begins under the shadow of conflict, many in Myanmar remain unconvinced that ballots cast in a fraction of the country can resolve a crisis born of tanks, guns and shattered trust. For now, the election appears less a path out of turmoil than another chapter in the military’s long struggle to rule a deeply divided nation.
