As the United States moves to tighten its grip on Venezuela’s oil sector and hardens its stance toward Cuba under President Donald Trump, Mexico has quietly emerged as a critical — and controversial — fuel supplier to the energy-starved Caribbean island, a role that risks further straining already delicate relations with Washington.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledged on Wednesday that disruptions in Venezuelan oil exports have elevated Mexico’s importance in Cuba’s energy mix. “With the current situation in Venezuela, Mexico has become an important supplier,” she said, while insisting that shipments have not increased beyond historical levels. “No more oil is being sent than has been sent historically; there is no specific shipment,” Sheinbaum added.
The president said deliveries are made through commercial contracts or framed as humanitarian aid, but she did not provide detailed figures. Her comments come amid heightened regional tension following U.S. moves to assert control over Venezuelan oil assets, a policy shift that has rattled Havana, which has long relied on subsidized crude from Caracas.
Cuba’s dependence on imported fuel is acute. Since the 1959 revolution that brought Fidel Castro to power and the subsequent U.S. trade embargo imposed in response to the nationalization of American-owned property, the island has struggled with chronic energy shortages. Those shortages have worsened in recent years, fueling rolling blackouts, economic hardship and a mass exodus of Cubans, many of whom have headed to the United States.
Across the island, power cuts lasting up to eight hours a day are common, and long lines at gas stations have become part of daily life. In Old Havana, José Martínez, a 65-year-old former construction worker, said the turmoil in Venezuela is already being felt. “The blackouts are going to intensify with all this,” he said, blaming Washington for the crisis. “They want Venezuela’s oil. They own the world.”
Others fear the impact on transportation. “For as long as I can remember, we’ve depended on Venezuela for fuel,” said Yeison Gálvez, a 37-year-old street vendor. “We’re going to be walking even more.”
While it remains unclear whether any country will step in to increase shipments to Cuba following U.S. pressure on Venezuela, analysts see little appetite in Mexico to fill the gap. The Mexican government has avoided outlining future plans, and oil exports to Cuba account for just 3.3% of Mexico’s total exports. Their profitability is also questionable, particularly as Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), the state-owned oil giant, faces declining production.
According to Pemex’s most recent filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Mexico shipped an average of 19,200 barrels per day to Cuba between January and Sept. 30, 2025 — including 17,200 barrels of crude and 2,000 barrels of refined products. Pemex did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Similar figures were independently tracked by Jorge Piñón of the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin, who uses satellite technology and oil-tracking services. Piñón estimated average shipments of 22,000 barrels per day during the same period, but noted a sharp drop to around 7,000 barrels per day after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Mexico City in September 2025.
By contrast, Venezuela under President Nicolás Maduro exported an average of 35,000 barrels a day to Cuba in recent months — roughly a quarter of the island’s total demand, Piñón said. He sees little chance that Mexico would significantly increase its role. “The U.S. government would go bonkers,” he said.
“There will be more pressure from the United States regarding Cuba,” warned Oscar Ocampo of the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness, noting that oil would be a predictable focus of that pressure.
Mexico has a long history of sending fuel to Cuba during periods of crisis. After mass protests rocked the island in 2021, Mexico dispatched 100,000 barrels of fuel as humanitarian aid. In October 2024, it sent more than 400,000 barrels over several days amid severe blackouts.
Critics say the mechanism for these shipments has grown increasingly opaque. Since 2023, deliveries have been routed through Gasolinas Bienestar, a private Pemex subsidiary whose finances are not publicly transparent. While Pemex told regulators that shipments to Cuba were valued at roughly $400 million and sold at market prices, Ocampo said it remains unclear whether discounts, barter arrangements or political considerations were involved.
The uncertainty comes as 2025 is on track to be the year with Mexico’s lowest crude exports in decades. Pemex is expected to export less than 600,000 barrels per day, down sharply from more than 1 million barrels just a few years ago — leaving Mexico with limited room, and limited incentive, to rescue Cuba’s faltering energy supply.
