Over two weeks of protests in Iran have escalated into the most serious challenge to the country’s theocratic leadership in years, yet analysts caution that it is too early to predict the immediate collapse of the Islamic Republic. While demonstrations initially centered on economic grievances, they have evolved into a broader demand for systemic change, calling into question the authority of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, now 86, and the clerical establishment that has ruled Iran since the 1979 revolution.
The unrest began on December 28 with strikes in Tehran’s bustling bazaar, but quickly grew into mass rallies in the capital and other cities across the country. In response, authorities have launched a harsh crackdown that, according to rights groups, has left hundreds dead, with arrests and disappearances reported nationwide. Despite the violence, Khamenei’s grip on power appears unshaken.
“These protests arguably represent the most serious challenge to the Islamic Republic in years, both in scale and in their increasingly explicit political demands,” said Nicole Grajewski, professor at the Sciences Po Centre for International Studies in Paris. “It is unclear, however, whether they will succeed in unseating the leadership, given the sheer depth and resilience of Iran’s repressive apparatus.”
Authorities have sought to demonstrate their own strength by mobilizing loyal supporters. Thousands attended pro-government rallies on Monday, January 12, underscoring the regime’s ability to rally public support amid unrest.
Thomas Juneau, professor of international affairs at the University of Ottawa, noted: “At this point, I still don’t assess that the fall of the regime is imminent. That said, I am less confident in this assessment than in the past, reflecting the intensity of the current unrest.”
Analysts highlight several key factors that will determine whether the Islamic Republic can maintain power. One of the most important is the scale of the protests. “They are growing, but they have not yet reached the critical mass that would represent a point of no return,” Juneau said.
The current demonstrations echo past waves of unrest. The 2022–2023 protests were sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a young woman arrested for allegedly violating the Islamic dress code, while the 2009 Green Movement erupted following disputed presidential elections. In contrast to those earlier protests, the latest unrest reflects a broader set of grievances, encompassing economic hardship, social repression, and systemic political dissatisfaction.
However, efforts to gauge the true magnitude of the current protests are complicated by a multi-day internet shutdown imposed by Iranian authorities. With fewer videos and reports emerging, analysts face challenges in assessing the scale and intensity of the movement.
Arash Azizi, a lecturer at Yale University, said: “The protesters still suffer from not having durable organized networks that can withstand state oppression. One possible strategy would be to organize strikes in strategic sectors, but this requires leadership that has yet to emerge.”
Beyond street-level mobilization, analysts argue that regime change in Iran would likely require cracks within the security forces and the political elite. So far, there is little evidence of such fractures. All pillars of the Islamic Republic—from parliament to the president to the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC)—have lined up behind Khamenei, reflecting a unified front against dissent.
“At present, there are no clear signs of military defections or high-level elite splits within the regime,” Grajewski said. “Historically, those are critical indicators of whether a protest movement can translate into regime collapse.”
Jason Brodsky, policy director at US-based advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, described the protests as “historic” but stressed that multiple conditions would need to converge for the regime to fall, including defections within security services and divisions among political elites.
The international dimension adds further complexity. US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly threatened military action over Iran’s domestic repression, announced 25 percent tariffs on Monday against Iran’s trading partners. While the White House emphasized diplomacy, it has not ruled out military strikes. Trump briefly aligned with Israel in a 12-day conflict against Iran in June, which resulted in the killing of several top Iranian security officials and forced Khamenei into hiding, revealing deep Israeli intelligence penetration. Analysts warn that any US military intervention would dramatically alter the trajectory of the current crisis.
“A direct US military intervention would fundamentally alter the dynamics on the ground,” Grajewski said, highlighting the potential for escalation beyond Iran’s borders.
Juneau added: “The regime is more vulnerable than it has been, domestically and geopolitically, since the worst years of the Iran-Iraq war.”
Internally, political alternatives to the current regime are limited. The US-based son of the ousted shah, Reza Pahlavi, has emerged as a vocal supporter of protests, with pro-monarchy slogans frequently chanted by demonstrators. However, with no organized opposition remaining inside Iran, the diaspora remains fragmented, with factions often more focused on internal rivalries than on challenging the Islamic Republic.
“There needs to be a leadership coalition that truly represents a broad swathe of Iranians and not just one political faction,” Azizi said. Without such coordination, the protests risk dissipating under the weight of government repression.
Khamenei, who has held the post of supreme leader since 1989 following the death of revolutionary founder Ruhollah Khomeini, continues to assert his authority. He appeared in public on Friday, delivering a speech denouncing the protests in his characteristic defiant style. Yet the question of succession remains unresolved. Analysts note that options could include his son Mojtaba Khamenei or a power transition to a committee structure rather than a single figurehead.
“Between maintaining the status quo and facing a complete overhaul, a more formal takeover by the Revolutionary Guards is one possible scenario,” Juneau said, highlighting the IRGC’s pivotal role in both domestic control and national security.
Despite these uncertainties, the protests have revealed the deepening fissures in Iranian society. Economic hardship, social repression, and political exclusion are driving citizens from Tehran to smaller cities to take to the streets. While the regime has so far maintained its control, the sustained unrest underscores both domestic dissatisfaction and the growing challenge to Khamenei’s legacy.
International observers emphasize that the coming weeks and months will be critical in determining the trajectory of Iran’s political future. Analysts point to three primary indicators to watch: the size and persistence of protests, signs of elite or security force defections, and the emergence of credible leadership capable of organizing sustained opposition.
“The situation is fluid and unprecedented in several respects,” Grajewski said. “Whether Iran experiences a moment of systemic change or whether the regime consolidates its control will depend on how these factors unfold, domestically and in the face of external pressures.”
For now, Iran remains a nation at a crossroads. The streets echo with demands for reform, the clerical leadership projects an image of resilience, and the international community watches with concern. Whether these protests mark the beginning of profound change or another chapter in Iran’s history of unrest remains uncertain—but the scale and intensity of the current demonstrations ensure that the world is witnessing a pivotal moment in the Islamic Republic’s nearly half-century rule.
