The wave of protests that has swept Iran over the past week appears to have subsided following a severe government crackdown that has killed thousands and coincided with a nationwide internet blackout, monitors said on Friday (Jan 16). The demonstrations, the largest in years against the country’s clerical leadership, erupted amid economic grievances but quickly evolved into a broader challenge to the Islamic Republic’s theocratic system.
According to monitors, the immediate threat of new military action by the United States has also temporarily receded. A senior Saudi official told AFP that Gulf allies persuaded President Donald Trump to give Iran’s leadership a “chance” to address the unrest before considering escalation.
The protests initially ignited in Tehran’s bustling bazaar on Dec 28 over economic issues but escalated dramatically on Jan 8, as citizens poured into streets in major cities demanding the end of clerical rule that has dominated Iran since the 1979 revolution. Authorities quickly imposed a near-total internet blackout, which has lasted more than a week, limiting communications and making it difficult to assess the full scale of the unrest.
“The repression has likely suppressed the protest movement for now,” said the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, which has tracked the demonstrations. The group warned, however, that the Iranian government’s “widespread mobilization of security forces is unsustainable,” leaving open the possibility that protests could resume.
Reza Pahlavi, the U.S.-based son of Iran’s last shah, who has increasingly positioned himself as a key opposition figure, urged the international community to intensify pressure on Tehran. “The Iranian people are taking decisive action on the ground. It is now time for the international community to join them fully,” Pahlavi said on Friday. His actual support within Iran remains difficult to gauge.
President Trump, meanwhile, has appeared cautious about supporting Pahlavi directly, noting uncertainty over whether the exiled royal heir could generate significant backing inside the country. Reports indicate that Pahlavi met with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff last weekend, amid ongoing discussions about the Iranian protests.
Human rights organizations have documented a staggering death toll. Norway-based Iran Human Rights (IHR) has verified 3,428 deaths caused by security forces, though it cautions that the figure may represent only a fraction of the actual casualties. Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, IHR’s director, called the crackdown “one of the gravest crimes of our time,” citing reports of protesters being shot while attempting to flee, the use of military-grade weapons, and even the street execution of wounded demonstrators.
Lama Fakih, program director at Human Rights Watch, described the killings since the start of the unrest as “unprecedented in the country.” The internet shutdown, monitored by NetBlocks, has now lasted over 180 hours, exceeding the duration of a similar blackout during protests in 2019.
Trump had not ruled out additional military action against Iran, particularly after previously backing Israeli operations against Iranian interests in the region in June. The U.S. president indicated he was monitoring whether the Iranian authorities executed protesters, heightening fears of further escalation.
However, with tensions temporarily easing, a senior Saudi official said that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman coordinated a “frantic, last-minute diplomatic effort” to persuade Trump to allow Iran an opportunity to demonstrate “good intentions.” Despite the apparent de-escalation, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt emphasized that “all options remain on the table for the president.” She noted that a scheduled mass execution of 800 prisoners had reportedly been halted, though there has been no confirmation that such a large number of executions were imminent.
Much attention had centered on the case of Erfan Soltani, a 26-year-old protester reportedly facing imminent execution. The Iranian judiciary confirmed that Soltani was in custody but stated he had not been sentenced to death and that his charges did not carry capital punishment.
On the international stage, U.S.-Iran tensions over the unrest also intersected with Israel. Reports surfaced that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Trump against striking Iran, though the White House declined to provide details of the conversation. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury imposed fresh sanctions on Iranian officials, including Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme Council for National Security.
Even amid the blackout, video footage verified by AFP showed the grim aftermath of the protests, including bodies at the Kahrizak morgue south of Tehran, with relatives frantically searching for missing loved ones.
The issue was also raised at the United Nations Security Council in New York, where Iranian-American journalist Masih Alinejad addressed the body, asserting that “all Iranians are united” against the clerical regime. Iran’s representative, Gholamhossein Darzi, countered by accusing Washington of attempting to exploit peaceful protests for geopolitical purposes.
While the immediate protests have subsided, analysts warn that the Iranian government’s reliance on heavy security force deployment is not sustainable. As the nation reels from one of the deadliest crackdowns in decades, the potential for renewed unrest remains, even as global powers navigate the delicate balance between pressure and intervention.
