Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent visit to Beijing marked a significant moment in Canada-China relations, signaling a cautious thaw in ties that have been strained for nearly a decade. Over several days of meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and leading business figures, Carney underscored Ottawa’s intent to diversify its international partnerships, reduce dependency on the United States, and navigate the uncertainties of a rapidly shifting global trade and security environment.
While the discussions were framed as a bilateral effort to restore economic and diplomatic engagement, one figure loomed over the talks: U.S. President Donald Trump. Though absent from the room, Trump’s policies, rhetoric, and transactional approach to diplomacy shaped the conversations 8,000 miles away. For Canada, long a close U.S. ally, the unpredictability of Trump’s administration underscored the urgency of exploring alternative avenues for trade and strategic influence.
Chinese media celebrated the notion of “strategic autonomy” this week — a concept increasingly central to Canada’s foreign policy calculus. In practice, strategic autonomy refers to a nation’s ability to manage its own interests independently of a historically dominant ally. For Canada, deeply intertwined with the United States through trade, security, and political alignment, this approach reflects a recognition that Ottawa cannot take predictability in Washington for granted.
Carney made the principle concrete in meetings with Chinese business leaders and officials. He acknowledged the cultural and political differences between the two countries, particularly in areas such as human rights, while emphasizing Canada’s desire to forge a mutually beneficial economic relationship. “We face many threats,” Carney said during a press conference in Beijing. “You manage those threats through alliances.”
The Canadian delegation sought to demonstrate that while Canada values its historic relationship with the United States, it also needs other pillars to sustain its economic and diplomatic stability in a time of global disruption. “It is a time of global trade disruption,” Carney noted. “Our economy cannot rely solely on one partner.”
The visit yielded tangible agreements, even if preliminary, that signal a potential pivot in trade policy. Canada announced that it would lift its 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, in exchange for lower tariffs on key Canadian agricultural exports. The deal includes an initial annual cap of 49,000 Chinese EVs entering Canada at a reduced 6.1% tariff, rising to approximately 70,000 over five years. Meanwhile, China agreed to cut its tariff on Canadian canola seeds, a major export, from 84% to about 15%.
While the specifics of the agreements were more fully articulated by Canada than by China, the symbolic value was significant. These measures represent a workaround for Canada in the absence of similar progress with the United States. Over the past year, Ottawa has faced U.S.-imposed tariffs and provocative statements, including Trump’s offhand suggestion that Canada could become the “51st state.” In this context, Carney’s visit can be seen as a strategic recalibration to maintain Canada’s economic stability while navigating a complex geopolitical landscape.
Analysts from both countries have described the outcomes as politically astute and mutually beneficial, reflecting the tenor of contemporary global politics. “China is succeeding in driving a small wedge between Canada and the U.S.,” said Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto. By engaging with Canada economically and diplomatically, Beijing strengthens its influence in a North American nation while avoiding overt confrontation with Washington.
For China, the benefits extend beyond economics. Canada hosts nearly two million citizens of Chinese descent and significant numbers of Chinese visitors and permanent residents, particularly in cities like Vancouver, where Chinese culture is prominent. The management of these ties carries domestic significance for both Ottawa and Beijing, as public perception influences diplomatic strategy.
More broadly, China positions itself as a global counterbalance to U.S. influence, a role it has increasingly embraced in recent years. Its Belt and Road Initiative, global infrastructure investments, and growing economic heft have allowed Beijing to assert influence far beyond Asia, challenging traditional Western-led systems of trade and diplomacy. Engaging with Canada fits neatly into this broader strategy, giving China leverage in North America while promoting the narrative of multipolar global cooperation.
Both leaders maintained measured rhetoric throughout the visit. Xi was characteristically oblique, framing the meeting as the continuation of progress begun in prior discussions. “It can be said that our meeting last year opened a new chapter in turning China–Canada relations toward improvement,” he said. Carney, meanwhile, balanced acknowledgment of the U.S.-Canada relationship with the realities of China’s growing importance.
While pressed about Ottawa’s dealings with Washington, Carney carefully highlighted the complexity of the U.S. relationship. “Our relationship with the U.S. is much more multifaceted,” he said. “But yes, the way our relationship has progressed in recent months with China, it is more predictable.” Observers debated whether he was suggesting that relations with China are more predictable than those with the U.S., but the remark underscored the growing uncertainty that Canada faces in navigating these dual relationships.
Predictability is a prized commodity in international affairs, particularly in an era defined by populist disruption and transactional diplomacy. Trump’s unpredictable decision-making has shaken traditional expectations in U.S. foreign policy, prompting allies like Canada to hedge their bets. For Beijing, fostering a predictable, economically stable Canada aligns with its strategic interests, providing a reliable partner in North America even amid U.S. volatility.
“My guess is that the Chinese want the opposite in Canada to what Trump wants — a coherent country with a functioning economy. And of course friendlier to China, where a relatively strong Canada is more desirable than not,” said Robert Bothwell, professor of Canadian history and international relations at the University of Toronto. “Trump wants the opposite — a fragmented satellite that is easier to bully and extort from.”
Despite the progress, questions remain about the long-term impact of Carney’s visit. The agreements are preliminary, and Trump’s mercurial approach to policy could change the calculus overnight. Ottawa’s pursuit of strategic autonomy is constrained by geography, economic dependence, and security alliances, particularly with the United States. Yet the Chinese engagement signals that Canada is no longer entirely reactive to Washington’s whims. By securing diversified trade channels and political partnerships, Canada aims to reduce its vulnerability to external shocks.
For Beijing, the visit strengthens its influence in a critical, developed economy in North America while avoiding direct confrontation with Washington. By presenting itself as a reliable partner amid global uncertainty, China enhances its soft power and builds leverage in a region long dominated by U.S. interests. The careful language and incremental agreements reflect a deliberate approach, balancing ambition with caution.
Carney’s visit to Beijing represents more than a series of trade discussions. It is a statement about Canada’s evolving approach to international relations, one that prioritizes resilience, diversification, and strategic autonomy. The United States, long Canada’s primary ally and trading partner, remains an unavoidable influence, but Ottawa is demonstrating that it can engage constructively with other global powers when circumstances demand it.
For China, the meetings reinforce its growing role as a global counterbalance, while providing a foothold in North America without destabilizing the broader U.S.-Canada relationship. In a world defined by trade disruption, geopolitical tension, and the unpredictability of populist leadership, predictability and pragmatism are the currencies of diplomacy.
In the weeks and months ahead, the outcomes of this visit will be tested against shifting political winds in Washington, Ottawa, and Beijing. For now, however, Canada has signaled a willingness to pursue its own path, even in the shadow of its closest ally, while China has secured a cautiously receptive partner in a strategically important country. In global diplomacy, that may be enough to chart a new, if careful, course.
