Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has issued a stark warning about further political instability within the federal opposition after the Coalition fractured for the second time since the election, deepening doubts about its ability to recover from electoral defeat.
The rupture was triggered this week after three Coalition senators — Bridget McKenzie, Susan McDonald and Ross Cadell — were forced to resign from their shadow cabinet positions for breaking collective discipline. The senators voted against the government’s hate crimes legislation, defying an agreed Coalition position and exposing growing ideological divisions within the Liberal–National partnership.
The legislation in question was originally introduced as part of a broader omnibus package responding to the Bondi Beach terror attack. That package combined tougher hate crime provisions with gun control reforms. However, strong opposition from the Coalition, the Greens and crossbench MPs forced the government to abandon the bundled approach, splitting the measures into separate hate speech and firearms bills.
Despite that compromise, dissent within the opposition ranks intensified, culminating in the senators’ rebellion and subsequent resignations. The episode marks the second major Coalition split since the election and has reignited speculation about the long-term stability of the alliance between the Liberals and Nationals.
On Thursday, Nationals leader David Littleproud publicly blamed Opposition Leader Sussan Ley for the breakdown, accusing her of mismanaging relations between the two parties. His comments underscored the growing sense of mistrust and frustration within the Coalition, particularly as electoral pressure mounts from the right.
That pressure has been amplified by the rise of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party, which has overtaken the Coalition in primary vote support for the first time. Former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce defected to One Nation late last year and has since suggested he would welcome further defections from disaffected Coalition members.
Mr Albanese said the political fallout was far from over. Speaking to the ABC on Friday, the Prime Minister predicted at least one more Coalition defection to One Nation in the coming weeks.
“There’ll be at least one more defection to One Nation over the coming weeks,” he said. “I’ll let them announce that. But I think it’s pretty obvious from the behaviour that occurred in parliament this week, at least one more will go.”
The Prime Minister’s comments came as the latest Newspoll, published by The Australian, revealed a historic shift in voter sentiment. The Coalition’s primary vote has slumped to a record low of 21 per cent, its fourth record-low result under Ms Ley’s leadership and around 10 points below its performance at the last election, which was already one of the worst defeats in the party’s history.
By contrast, One Nation’s primary vote has surged to 22 per cent, up seven points in just two months and its highest level since the party’s formation. The result reflects growing fragmentation on the conservative side of politics and increasing volatility among voters dissatisfied with both major parties.
While the Coalition’s woes have dominated the political narrative, the poll also delivered troubling news for the government. Mr Albanese’s personal standing has weakened following widespread criticism of his response to the Bondi terror attack.
Although he maintains a clear lead as preferred prime minister, his advantage over Ms Ley has narrowed significantly. His lead has fallen from 54–27 per cent in November to 51–31 per cent in the latest poll.
The Prime Minister’s approval rating has also dropped sharply, reaching its lowest point since late 2024, during the height of post-pandemic cost-of-living pressures. His net approval has fallen 11 points to minus 11, with 53 per cent of voters expressing dissatisfaction with his performance.
With the opposition divided and the electorate increasingly restless, Australia’s political landscape appears set for further upheaval in the months ahead.
