U.S. President Donald Trump is weighing a range of military options against Iran, including targeted strikes on security forces and senior leaders, in an effort to encourage protesters and potentially engineer political change, according to multiple sources familiar with the discussions. The deliberations come as Israeli, Arab and Western officials caution that air power alone is unlikely to bring down Iran’s clerical establishment and could instead deepen instability across the region.
Two U.S. sources said Trump wants to create conditions for “regime change” following a brutal crackdown that crushed nationwide protests earlier this month, leaving thousands dead. To that end, advisers have discussed options to strike commanders and institutions Washington holds responsible for the violence, with the aim of emboldening protesters to overrun government and security buildings.
One of the sources said broader options have also been considered, including a more expansive campaign designed to have lasting impact, potentially targeting Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities or its nuclear enrichment infrastructure. Another U.S. source stressed that Trump has not yet made a final decision, including whether to pursue a military course at all.
The arrival this week of a U.S. aircraft carrier and accompanying warships in the Middle East has expanded Washington’s capacity to take action, following repeated threats by Trump to intervene over Iran’s crackdown. Still, diplomats and regional officials said the risks of escalation remain high.
Four Arab officials, three Western diplomats and a senior Western source briefed on the discussions warned that strikes could backfire by weakening a protest movement already reeling from the bloodiest repression since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. “Without large-scale military defections, Iran’s protests remain heroic but outgunned,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute.
The sources spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. Iran’s foreign office, the U.S. Department of Defense and the White House did not respond to requests for comment, while the Israeli prime minister’s office declined to comment.
Trump on Wednesday urged Iran to negotiate over its nuclear program, warning that any future U.S. attack would be more severe than a June bombing campaign against three nuclear sites. He described U.S. naval deployments as an “armada” sailing toward Iran. A senior Iranian official said Tehran was preparing for military confrontation while still pursuing diplomatic channels, adding that Washington had shown little openness to talks.
Iran insists its nuclear program is civilian and says it is ready for dialogue “based on mutual respect and interests,” but vowed to defend itself “like never before” if pushed. Trump has not publicly detailed his terms, though previous U.S. demands have included a ban on independent uranium enrichment, limits on long-range missiles and curbs on Iran’s regional proxy network.
Israeli officials, however, have voiced skepticism that airstrikes could achieve Washington’s goals. A senior Israeli official with direct knowledge of U.S.-Israeli planning said that even killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would not topple the system. “If you’re going to topple the regime, you have to put boots on the ground,” the official said, adding that Iran’s leadership, though weakened by unrest and economic crisis, remains firmly in control.
U.S. intelligence assessments echo that view, according to two people familiar with the reports, concluding that while underlying conditions for unrest persist, there are no major fractures within the ruling elite.
Khamenei, 86, has acknowledged several thousand deaths during the protests and blamed the unrest on the United States, Israel and “seditionists.” Rights group HRANA estimates nearly 6,000 deaths, though Reuters has been unable to verify the figures. Khamenei has reduced public appearances and delegated day-to-day management to figures aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which dominates Iran’s security apparatus and large parts of the economy.
Regional officials fear that a forced transition could entrench hard-line rule or plunge Iran into chaos. Gulf states have lobbied Washington against strikes, warning of retaliation and regional spillover. “The United States may pull the trigger,” one Arab source said, “but it will not live with the consequences. We will.”
Analysts warn the gravest risk is fragmentation akin to early-stage Syria, with civil conflict, refugee flows and disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The most likely scenario, Vatanka said, is a slow erosion of the system—through elite defections, economic paralysis and a contested succession—until it ultimately snaps.
