China may rethink its escalating campaign of diplomatic and economic pressure on Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi if she secures a decisive victory in the February 8 snap election, current and former Japanese officials and political analysts say.
Weeks after taking office in 2025, Takaichi sparked the most significant diplomatic dispute with Beijing in over a decade by publicly outlining how Tokyo might respond to a Chinese attack on Taiwan, the self-ruled island claimed by China. Beijing demanded she retract the remarks, which she has refused to do, and has since implemented a series of retaliatory measures affecting Japan’s economy.
“China’s initial thinking was probably to try to bring down the Takaichi government,” said Kazuhisa Shimada, former vice-minister of defense. “This election is extremely important… a weak government simply won’t be taken seriously.”
Japan’s first female prime minister is hoping to leverage her strong personal approval ratings, which have been largely unaffected by the dispute with China, to bolster her coalition’s razor-thin parliamentary majority. A Jan. 29 poll suggested she may be on course to succeed, although analysts have described the election as one of Japan’s most unpredictable in years.
A strong electoral showing would send a clear message to Beijing that its pressure campaign has not undermined her domestic standing, a senior Japanese government official said on condition of anonymity.
The official added that China’s economic curbs on one of its largest trading partners could backfire, while efforts to portray Takaichi as a dangerous nationalist reviving Japan’s militaristic past have failed to gain traction internationally. These dynamics, he said, could eventually force China to re-engage with Tokyo.
So far, however, Beijing has shown no sign of easing its stance. China’s Foreign Ministry declined to answer questions for this report, referring instead to comments by spokesperson Guo Jiakun at a Jan. 27 press conference, stating that Takaichi had “severely threatened” the “political foundation of China-Japan relations.”
A Chinese official, speaking anonymously, acknowledged that the upcoming election might yield short-term political gains for Takaichi but warned that Japanese voters would eventually bear the costs of confronting China. Takaichi, who has pledged to resign if her coalition loses its majority, did not respond to requests for comment.
While domestic cost-of-living concerns have dominated the campaign, tensions with China remain a central issue, threatening Japan’s fragile economic growth and prompting the government to enhance security measures. In announcing the election on Jan. 19, Takaichi cited Chinese military exercises near Taiwan and “economic coercion” as factors in her decision.
China’s retaliatory measures have included a near-total state-directed boycott on travel to Japan, which nearly halved Chinese tourist arrivals in December. Beijing is also reportedly considering restricting exports of rare earths and critical minerals, which analysts at Daiwa Institute of Research estimate could reduce Japan’s GDP by up to 3 percent (roughly US$117 billion) and cost two million jobs.
More than two-thirds of Japanese firms anticipate the strained ties with China will hurt the economy, according to a January Reuters survey. Public concern over the economic impact has risen from 53 percent in December to 60 percent, according to Asahi Shimbun.
Professor Paul Midford of Meiji Gakuin University in Yokohama said economic anxiety may have influenced Takaichi’s decision to call the election early, even though the next Lower House vote was not required until 2028. Former Vice-Minister Shimada also noted the influence of Takaichi’s mentor, Shinzo Abe, who solidified power during an earlier period of high tension with China.
A key indicator of Takaichi’s success will be whether her party can secure a parliamentary majority on its own, analysts say. Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan, a former US diplomat, said that achieving this would demonstrate to Beijing that Takaichi is likely to remain in power for several years, signaling that China’s pressure campaign has failed. Conversely, a narrow victory could prompt Beijing to intensify its coercion against Japan.
