Taiwanese President Lai Ching‑te has issued a stark warning that, if China were to annex Taiwan, neighboring countries such as Japan and the Philippines would likely become Beijing’s next strategic targets — a development he says would seriously destabilize the Indo‑Pacific region and have far‑reaching consequences for global peace and security.
On Tuesday, Lai outlined his government’s looming strategy to bolster national defense and urged Taiwan’s parliament to approve an emergency US$40 billion special defense budget aimed at acquiring critical military capabilities.
The broad warning comes amid intensifying tensions between Taipei and Beijing, soaring military pressure across the Taiwan Strait, and a deepening geopolitical tussle involving the United States, Japan, the Philippines and other key Western and regional partners. Analysts say the interview signals a shift in Taiwan’s public diplomacy, with Lai linking Taiwan’s security more overtly to regional and even global stability.
“If Taiwan were annexed by China, China’s expansionist ambitions would not stop there,” Lai told at the Presidential Office Building in Taipei. “The next countries under threat would be Japan, the Philippines and others in the Indo‑Pacific region, with repercussions eventually reaching the Americas and Europe.”
Lai’s comments underscore a broader strategic argument promoted by Taiwanese officials and some regional partners: that the security of Taiwan is intrinsically connected to broader peace and stability across the Indo‑Pacific — a region that accounts for a major share of global trade and economic activity. The Taiwan Strait alone is one of the world’s busiest shipping corridors.
In recent years, Beijing has not only ramped up military operations — including frequent warplane sorties and naval deployments near Taiwan’s territory — but has also intensified political pressure to cultivate local political actors and influence. Taipei and its supporters argue these actions reflect an expansionist posture that, if unchecked, could threaten neighboring territories and alliances.
Lai reiterated that Taiwan’s strategic location — at the center of the so‑called first island chain stretching from southern Japan through Taiwan to the Philippines — makes it pivotal to regional defense planning among democracies. He argued that if Taipei fell, the domino effect on regional security frameworks could be profound.
At the heart of Lai’s interview was an urgent appeal for Taiwan’s parliament to approve a US$40 billion special defense budget to accelerate weapon acquisitions and enhance deterrence against Beijing. The supplementary budget is designed to strengthen Taiwan’s air defense, anti‑armor systems, anti‑ship weapons, drones, sensors and command and control capabilities — a mix of U.S. arms purchases and locally developed systems that officials say would upgrade Taiwan’s ability to repel an invasion and sustain defense over time.
Taipei has framed the proposed supplemental budget as essential to countering China’s growing military footprint — one that, despite reported internal purges and leadership changes in Beijing’s armed forces, continues to expand in capability and sophistication.
Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo has warned that delaying approval risks creating a “breach” in the island’s defense — a gap that could signal weakness not only to Beijing but to partners such as Washington and Tokyo. Koo noted that the new funding would support procurement of systems such as Long‑Range Precision Missiles, advanced air defense interceptors, unmanned platforms, and intelligence/surveillance assets.
The $40 billion request adds to existing defense spending which has already grown significantly under Lai’s leadership, as Taipei has sought to build resilience through asymmetric capabilities rather than mirror China’s conventional strength. A key element of this strategy includes the so‑called Taiwan Dome anti‑air and missile defense network — a domestic effort to integrate advanced sensors, interceptor systems and AI‑enabled tracking to protect critical infrastructure and population centers.
Despite broad acknowledgement of the security threat posed by China, Taiwan’s parliament — currently controlled by opposition parties — has been slow to approve the full supplemental defense budget. Opposition lawmakers, particularly from the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), have called for more detailed budget scrutiny and have backed a much smaller defense package. This has led to a legislative stalemate that critics say undermines Taiwan’s deterrence credibility and could erode international confidence in Taipei’s unity.
Lai has publicly defended the budget as indispensable, saying that “national security cannot wait” and that collective defense investments are necessary to ensure the island remains a strong partner in regional security architecture.
Taiwan’s defense leadership has also cautioned that failure to pass the package would send the wrong signal to countries like the United States, which have been the primary source of advanced weapons sales and training. U.S. lawmakers and defense officials have repeatedly urged Taipei to accelerate defense spending precisely because delays could slow or disrupt deliveries of critical systems, leaving Taiwan vulnerable as China’s capabilities grow.
China’s President Xi Jinping has separately cautioned Washington against selling weapons to Taiwan, warning that such transactions could destabilize bilateral relations and might jeopardize state‑level diplomacy, including upcoming visits and negotiations. Beijing states that U.S. arms sales contravene its “one China” position and are tantamount to interfering in China’s internal affairs.
Beijing has repeatedly described Taiwan as a breakaway province that must eventually be reunified with the mainland — by force if necessary. Chinese officials routinely express disapproval of Taipei’s overtures to Washington and other allies, arguing such ties enflame tensions and could invite conflict. China’s diplomatic messaging often frames Taiwan’s defense buildup as provocations that risk regional peace.
However, analysts and many policymakers in Taipei, Washington, Tokyo and Manila view China’s actions through a different lens — as part of a broader pattern of assertiveness that goes beyond Taiwan alone and reflects China’s ambitions to reshape regional power balances. In that context, Lai’s warning that Japan and the Philippines would likely be next if Taiwan were annexed is seen as a strategic appeal to global audiences about the stakes of cross‑strait conflict.
Japan has recently faced its own diplomatic friction with Beijing: in late 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi drew sharp criticism from Beijing by suggesting Tokyo might intervene militarily if China attacked Taiwan — a bold remark that highlighted Tokyo’s increasing security concerns and its evolving defense posture.
Similarly, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has warned repeatedly that Manila would be “inevitably” dragged into a conflict over Taiwan, especially given the presence of U.S. troops at multiple bases under a longstanding defense access agreement. The Philippines and China also have ongoing disputes in the South China Sea, including competing claims over parts of the Spratly Islands — flashpoints that regional analysts say could escalate if Beijing’s ambitions expand.
Throughout the interview, Lai framed Taiwan’s defense not merely as self‑preservation but as a contribution to a rules‑based international order that undergirds global stability. He stressed that aggression against Taiwan would signal a readiness by China to challenge existing norms and alliances, emboldening further actions in the Indo‑Pacific and beyond.
“If China were to take Taiwan, Beijing would become more aggressive, undermining peace and stability in the Indo‑Pacific and the rules‑based international order,” Lai said, painting an image of cascading instability that would concern democracies across multiple continents.
This message aligns with broader diplomatic efforts in Taipei to frame Taiwan not just as an isolated territorial issue but as a bellwether for the future of international norms, free trade routes, democratic governance and alliance networks. Taipei’s leaders have increasingly highlighted Taiwan’s robust democratic system, its economic centrality in global semiconductor supply chains, and its strategic role within allied frameworks that include the U.S., Japan, Australia and parts of Europe.
President Lai’s warning comes at a time of heightened strategic competition in East Asia — one that encompasses not only cross‑strait tensions but also broader diplomatic, economic and military rivalries among major powers. With the U.S. signaling continued support for Taiwan’s self‑defense, and regional allies increasingly wary of Beijing’s intentions, Taiwan’s leadership appears intent on galvanizing both domestic and international support for an enhanced defense posture.
Lai’s message — that the fate of Taiwan is inseparable from the security of Japan, the Philippines and other Indo‑Pacific partners — is likely to find receptive audiences among governments concerned about China’s regional trajectory. But it also risks antagonizing Beijing further, as China insists that Taiwan remains an internal matter and rejects narratives suggesting expansionist ambitions beyond reunification.
As lawmakers in Taipei continue to debate the supplemental defense budget and as diplomatic engagements unfold between Washington and Beijing, the Indo‑Pacific security landscape remains highly uncertain. But what is clear — in Lai’s assessment — is that the implications of Taiwan’s survival or annexation reach far beyond its shores, shaping the strategic contours of the region and testing the resolve of nations committed to peace, stability and a rules‑based world order.
