Racial issues, long a relatively muted feature of Johor’s political landscape, have become increasingly prominent ahead of the Jul 11 state election, with political parties intensifying efforts to win over ethnic Chinese voters in a contest that could shape the outcome in several closely fought constituencies.
Political analysts say national controversies affecting the Chinese Malaysian community, coupled with race-based messaging from competing coalitions, have transformed the Chinese electorate into one of the election’s most fiercely contested voting blocs. While such rhetoric is unlikely to fundamentally alter voting behaviour across all communities, observers believe it could prove decisive in mixed and Chinese-majority constituencies where victory margins are expected to be narrow.
Johor’s demographic composition broadly reflects Malaysia’s national population, with Malays accounting for roughly 60 per cent of residents, Chinese around 30 per cent and other ethnic groups making up the remaining 10 per cent. However, Chinese voters form the largest electoral bloc in approximately 12 of Johor’s 56 state constituencies, most of them concentrated in urban areas including Johor Bahru, Skudai and Batu Pahat.
The competition for these seats has intensified as both the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition in Johor and opposition alliance Pakatan Harapan (PH) seek to consolidate support ahead of polling day.
One of the most closely watched contests is in Johor Jaya, where PH is defending a constituency it has held for three consecutive elections. The seat has a substantial Chinese electorate, with ethnic Chinese accounting for 44 per cent of registered voters.
Democratic Action Party (DAP) candidate Lee Wern Yiing, contesting her first election after serving for eight years as a special officer to incumbent assemblyman Liow Cai Tung, said race-related messaging has become far more pronounced than in previous state polls.
Among the controversies drawing attention was an AI-generated image circulated online depicting Chinese women wearing PH T-shirts together with hijabs.
The image drew criticism from DAP leaders, who argued it sought to portray PH candidates and supporters in a misleading and culturally insensitive manner.
Johor DAP chairman Teo Nie Ching said the image appeared designed to undermine PH by portraying Chinese supporters wearing the Muslim headscarf inappropriately.
The image was reportedly shared on social media by former Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) local councillor Lee Ching Kong, accompanied by remarks critical of PH.
“I don’t think that is right,” Lee Wern Yiing said.
“If you want to contest an election, debate policies and issues that help the people, not resort to tactics that disrespect women and different races.”
The Johor Jaya contest features a four-cornered fight involving Lee, MCA candidate Chan San San, Parti Bersama Malaysia’s Lau Yi Leong and independent candidate HP Lim.
Other constituencies where Chinese voters represent the largest voting bloc include Perling, Stulang, Puteri Wangsa and Skudai, making them among the most closely watched battlegrounds of the election.
BN, which currently governs Johor, and PH are rivals at the state level despite serving together in the federal unity government.
DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke described the circulation of the AI-generated image as “an outdated tactic that people will reject.”
MCA declined to comment on the controversy, while Lee Ching Kong told local media that he had not created the image but merely reshared it after finding it in a Facebook group.
He said his social media post was primarily intended to encourage Malaysians working in Singapore to return home to vote.
Beyond social media controversies, campaign debates have increasingly centred on issues viewed as particularly significant to Chinese Malaysians.
These include the Selangor government’s decision to phase out pig farming in the state and renewed calls for federal recognition of the Unified Examination Certificate (UEC), awarded by independent Chinese-medium schools.
The UEC has remained a longstanding political issue, with Chinese education groups arguing that formal recognition would expand higher education opportunities for graduates.
Bersama’s Perling candidate Boo Wei Han drew criticism from some online users after attacking Selangor’s pig farming policy during a campaign rally.
The issue is particularly sensitive in Malaysia because pork production and consumption remain closely associated with the Chinese community, while the country’s Muslim majority does not consume pork due to religious prohibitions.
At the same time, political messaging directed at Malay-Muslim voters has also become more prominent.
Leaders from Perikatan Nasional (PN), particularly Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), have intensified appeals centred on Malay political leadership and Islamic governance.
PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang urged supporters to back BN candidates in constituencies where PN is not fielding candidates, declaring that “what is important is that Johor is ruled by Malay Muslims.”
Former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad also entered the campaign debate by warning that Malays risked “losing Malay land” if political power shifted away from the community.
Observers note that such race-based appeals have historically been less common in Johor compared with several northern and eastern Malaysian states, where identity politics has traditionally played a larger role.
Residents interviewed during the campaign likewise described Johor as generally favouring more moderate political discourse.
Political analyst Syaza Shukri said Johor has historically been less susceptible to racial politics, although parties continue to rely on ethnic narratives because they believe such strategies remain effective in mobilising core supporters.
“Racial politics will continue as long as parties view one another through a racial lens,” she said.
“I think the parties will continue with this tried-and-tested strategy because the coalitions themselves are divided along those lines.”
The state election features contests in all 56 constituencies, with both BN and PH fielding candidates statewide.
Other parties in the race include PN, currently the largest opposition bloc in Parliament, and Parti Bersama Malaysia led by former economy minister Rafizi Ramli.
The election is also being closely watched as an indicator of whether DAP continues to command overwhelming support among Chinese voters in Peninsular Malaysia.
For decades, DAP has dominated the Chinese vote, particularly while serving as an opposition party at the federal level.
However, the coalition suffered a major setback during Sabah’s state election last November.
DAP lost all eight constituencies it contested, while PH secured only one seat in the 73-member Sabah assembly.
The disappointing result prompted renewed discussion over whether DAP’s traditional support among Chinese voters is beginning to weaken.
In response, the party has adopted a more assertive stance on issues important to its traditional support base, including renewed advocacy for UEC recognition and other reforms promised under the federal Madani administration.
Analysts caution, however, that Sabah’s political environment differs significantly from Peninsular Malaysia.
Former lawmaker Ong Kian Ming, now an adjunct professor at Taylor’s University, said local parties in Sabah offered Chinese voters credible alternatives unavailable elsewhere.
“Unlike Sabah, where Parti Warisan Sabah was a genuine alternative for Chinese voters, in Peninsular Malaysia, Chinese voters have far fewer alternatives outside DAP and PH,” he said.
Johor therefore represents the first significant electoral test of whether DAP’s Chinese support base in Peninsular Malaysia has genuinely softened.
Much attention will focus on whether DAP can successfully defend its 10 Johor state seats or whether MCA can regain additional ground.
MCA is contesting 15 constituencies and hopes to build on gains made during the 2022 state election, when it captured four Chinese-majority seats previously held by DAP: Paloh, Pekan Nenas, Yong Peng and Bekok.
Johor caretaker executive councillor Lee Ting Han, an MCA leader defending Paloh, said internal BN surveys indicate Chinese support has shifted towards BN during the current term.
“PH has always assumed Chinese voters — including those working in Singapore — would naturally vote for them. I don’t think that’s true anymore,” he said.
According to Lee, Johor voters have become increasingly pragmatic, placing greater emphasis on government performance and cost-of-living concerns than on longstanding political loyalties.
DAP acknowledges that convincing voters remains an ongoing challenge.
Lee Wern Yiing admitted the Madani government has not fully met public expectations, particularly in education policy, but argued that reforms are gradually being implemented.
She pointed to the federal Cabinet’s decision in May to expand higher education pathways for UEC graduates as evidence of incremental progress.
“The Madani government’s score is not 100 out of 100. They can do better, especially on education, and we aim to make small improvements to close this gap,” she said.
“We have made progress but to implement these policies in full, we need more time.”
Among some voters, support for DAP nevertheless remains resilient.
Retiree See Boon Leong, 71, said he intends to continue supporting PH because he believes DAP best represents Chinese community interests, particularly on education and business-related issues.
“We have our gripes about DAP, but when it comes to voting, we’ll continue supporting them and PH,” said the Penggaram voter.
Voter turnout could ultimately prove just as important as changing political sentiment.
Johor’s 2022 state election recorded turnout of just above 50 per cent, enabling BN to secure a commanding victory with 40 of the state’s 56 seats.
Later that year, however, turnout reached approximately 75 per cent during the general election, where PH won 14 of Johor’s 26 parliamentary constituencies.
Ong expects turnout on Jul 11 to fall somewhere between those two figures.
He believes lower participation among non-Malay voters would likely favour BN over PH.
Meanwhile, BN faces another strategic challenge.
Analysts say perceptions of closer cooperation between UMNO and PAS could complicate BN’s efforts to attract additional Chinese support.
Earlier assessments suggested PN’s decision to contest only 33 constituencies, despite initially signalling it would field candidates statewide, reduced the likelihood of splitting the Malay vote and could indirectly benefit BN.
PAS has openly encouraged supporters to back BN candidates where PN is absent.
Abdul Hadi’s statement that PAS did not want Johor governed by “liberals or non-Muslims” fuelled speculation that closer cooperation between PAS and UMNO may emerge in future elections.
Some analysts believe such messaging may instead encourage greater Chinese voter mobilisation behind PH.
Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, said perceptions of a PAS-UMNO alliance could create what he described as a “siege mentality” among Chinese voters.
“Chinese voters in Johor will not be receptive to a Malay parties-centric pact, and they will more likely come out to vote for PH if the rumours of this pact become more concrete,” he said.
Political messaging has also drawn attention following comments made by Johor Chief Minister Onn Hafiz Ghazi before nomination day.
Onn Hafiz said he did not wish to “sit at the same table” as DAP when forming the next state government.
Former Johor DAP assemblywoman Gan Peck Cheng, who is retiring from politics, criticised the remarks as inappropriate.
“As Johor’s leader, how can you say you do not want to sit with DAP when we will be in the state assembly together?” she asked.
While some social media users interpreted the comments as racially motivated, Onn Hafiz rejected that characterisation.
“We have always been proud of the Bangsa Johor concept, where Malays, Chinese, Indians and Orang Asli come together to move the state forward,” he said before nomination day.
“Johoreans are wise enough to reject parties that try to sow hatred and divide our people.”
Political observers believe the chief minister’s remarks were aimed primarily at reassuring UMNO’s traditional Malay grassroots, many of whom remain uneasy about the party’s federal cooperation with DAP.
Ong said the strategy had largely achieved its objective.
“By and large, I think this strategy has fulfilled Onn Hafiz’s objective, especially after BN was able to turn around the attacks against Onn Hafiz for being ‘racist’ by responding that DAP is not a race but a political party,” he said.
Despite the increasingly heated rhetoric, several Johor voters interviewed during the campaign insisted race and religion would not determine their choices at the ballot box.
Kluang resident Jackson Foo said voters were more interested in candidates’ abilities than their ethnicity.
“We don’t vote just because a candidate is Malay, Chinese or from any particular race,” he said.
“We look at what they can do for us. Johoreans are sophisticated enough to judge candidates on merit rather than ethnicity.”
Nevertheless, candidates acknowledge that the contests are likely to be closely fought.
Lee Wern Yiing expects an especially tight race in Johor Jaya, where PH secured victory in the previous election by only a 4.1 percentage-point margin.
“With the competition so tight this time, we expect the margins to be closer than ever,” she said.
As campaigning enters its final stretch, analysts agree that the Chinese vote has emerged as one of the defining factors in Johor’s state election. While bread-and-butter issues such as inflation, wages and government performance continue to dominate voter concerns, the prominence of racial narratives and identity politics has added another layer of complexity to the contest.
Whether those messages ultimately influence voting behaviour remains uncertain. But in a handful of closely contested constituencies where Chinese voters hold the balance of power, even small shifts in support or turnout could determine which coalition emerges with the advantage when Johoreans head to the polls on Jul 11.
