As Americans prepare to cast their votes in a historically close presidential election, officials nationwide are urging patience in awaiting results. With the potential for delays and legal disputes over ballot counts, it may take days before a winner is confirmed in what could be one of the tightest elections in U.S. history.
Millions of Americans are set to head to the polls on Tuesday, November 5, with Democratic incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican challenger Donald Trump locked in a close race for the White House. Although voting concludes this evening, officials across the nation have warned that the final outcome may not be clear for days. Experts note that delays are likely, especially with legal challenges potentially complicating the vote count in several key states.
As has been the case for decades, the president and vice president are not elected by direct popular vote. Instead, each state contributes to an Electoral College, a system created to balance influence across the nation. This year, both Harris and Trump aim to secure at least 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes to win the presidency.
The Electoral College, a group of 538 electors selected by the states, ultimately decides the winner. Each state’s Electoral College votes are allocated based on its representation in Congress, giving larger states, such as California and Texas, a greater share of electoral power. The candidate who wins the popular vote in each state secures all of that state’s Electoral College votes (except in Nebraska and Maine, which split their votes proportionally), pushing them closer to the critical 270 votes needed for victory.
The final tally in the Electoral College often correlates with the national popular vote, but the potential for discrepancies adds tension, particularly in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where high voter turnout and extensive mail-in voting could delay final counts. Both states have yet to allow pre-Election Day processing of mail-in ballots, which could contribute to the anticipated delays.
This election has seen an unprecedented surge in early voting. Approximately 81 million people have already cast their ballots, surpassing half of the total ballots cast in 2020. This high turnout underscores the intensity surrounding the 2024 election, with issues such as economic policy, healthcare, climate change, and social justice at the forefront of voters’ minds. The influx of early votes could make election night tabulations complex, particularly in states with close races.
Polls begin closing on the East Coast at 6 p.m. Eastern Time, but tight races and legal challenges may prevent a swift projection of the winner. In 2020, for example, news outlets did not project Joe Biden as the winner until four days after Election Day. Experts caution that the complexities of mail-in and early ballots could create similar delays this year, if not longer.
Once the polls close, local election officials begin processing and counting ballots. The specific procedures for counting votes, however, vary widely between states and even between counties within a state. This year, several states have adjusted election laws to expedite processing for mail-in and early votes, reducing the risk of a lengthy tally. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, however, have opted to keep their previous rules, prohibiting the processing of mail-in ballots until Election Day itself. This choice could create bottlenecks in those key swing states.
In states like Michigan and Arizona, which have streamlined processes for mail-in ballots, results may be available sooner. However, political analysts note that vote counts can remain incomplete well into election night if races are close or if large numbers of mail-in ballots need to be counted.
Moreover, the U.S. media often play a role in projecting winners before all ballots are officially counted, analyzing voter data and historical patterns to call races in each state. However, such projections remain unofficial until state certification is complete, with all ballots verified and counted. Certification deadlines vary by state, but all must be finalized by December 11, with the results submitted to the president of the Senate—currently Vice President Harris—by December 25.
The certification of election results, generally a formality, has become increasingly contentious in recent years. Following the 2020 election, former President Trump and his allies challenged the results in multiple states, claiming widespread fraud. Though these claims were repeatedly dismissed in court, they highlighted vulnerabilities in the certification process and galvanized some officials to delay certification or even refuse it.
According to a recent report by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), at least 35 election officials nationwide have previously refused to certify results and may again take such actions. An uptick in county-level delays in 2022 further raised concerns, with 22 counties postponing certification, almost a 30 percent increase compared to 2020.
Election experts warn that further obstruction in the certification process could complicate the federal deadlines for finalizing results, potentially setting the stage for a constitutional crisis if disputes are not resolved by the time Congress is required to certify the Electoral College results on January 6, 2025.
Close vote counts in battleground states also risk triggering automatic recounts, further delaying the final outcome. Each state sets its own thresholds and procedures for recounts, which may involve additional verification steps and, in some cases, hand recounts of physical ballots. Given the tight race between Harris and Trump, any significant discrepancies between machine and hand counts could spark legal disputes over recount procedures.
Pre-election lawsuits from both parties have already highlighted potential legal flashpoints. Democrats have filed suits to ensure that mail-in and absentee ballots are counted even if they arrive shortly after Election Day, citing delivery delays. Republicans, on the other hand, have pursued litigation to prevent changes to mail-in voting rules, arguing that such alterations could compromise the integrity of the vote.
The potential for additional legal battles post-Election Day underscores the delicate balance election officials must maintain as they work to ensure every ballot is counted accurately and fairly.
The 2024 election has exposed deep divisions among American voters. Both Harris and Trump have mobilized their bases with sharply contrasting visions for the future of the United States, from approaches to climate policy to the role of government in healthcare. Surveys indicate that Americans remain polarized not only on policy but also on perceptions of election integrity.
Polling shows that a significant portion of voters on both sides worry about the potential for election interference and fraud, despite assurances from election officials and independent monitors. This skepticism reflects a broader decline in public trust in institutions, exacerbated by political rhetoric and social media misinformation.
