In a landmark victory that has reshaped the political landscape of Sri Lanka, Anura Kumara Dissanayake has emerged triumphant in the nation’s 2024 presidential election, held on September 21. Dissanayake, the leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and the figurehead of the National People’s Power (NPP) coalition, secured 42.3% of the vote, defeating his closest rival, Sajith Premadasa, who garnered 32.8%. Incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe, a symbol of the old guard, finished a distant third with 17.3%, while Namal Rajapaksa, the son of former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, managed only 2.6%.
This election result signals a seismic shift in Sri Lankan politics, marking the first time since independence in 1948 that a candidate not aligned with either of the two major elite political parties has risen to power. For decades, Sri Lankan politics was dominated by either the United National Party (UNP) or the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), alongside various offshoots. Dissanayake’s victory is seen as a resounding rejection of the political establishment and the legacy of mismanagement and corruption that led to the country’s deep economic and social crises.
The significance of Dissanayake’s victory cannot be overstated. The Wickremesinghe-Rajapaksa government, which was still reeling from the mass protests of 2022 that led to Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s ousting, has been widely discredited. Those protests, fuelled by economic collapse, soaring inflation, and food shortages, forced Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country. The mass mobilization was unprecedented in Sri Lanka’s recent history and signaled widespread discontent with the ruling elite.
For many Sri Lankans, the 2024 election was long-awaited. Voters saw the election as an opportunity to break free from the entrenched elites who had failed to address the country’s mounting crises. Wickremesinghe, who had stepped in as president after Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled, was seen by many as a placeholder for the status quo. His failure to adequately address Sri Lanka’s economic woes, compounded by his cozying up to global financial institutions and bondholders, proved his undoing. By the time election day arrived, his popularity had plummeted, and voters were looking for a radical change.
The JVP: From Insurrections to Democratic Victory
Dissanayake’s JVP, the leading force behind the NPP coalition, has a controversial and storied history. The party has roots in the Marxist-Leninist revolutionary movements of the 1970s and 1980s, during which it led two armed insurrections. The first, in 1971, was a failed uprising against the government, and the second, from 1988 to 1989, left thousands dead in a brutal conflict with the state. At that time, the JVP was a pariah in Sri Lankan politics, associated with violence and unrest.
However, over the years, the JVP has undergone a significant transformation, rebranding itself as a legitimate and democratic political force. Under Dissanayake’s leadership, the party has distanced itself from its violent past and repositioned itself as a center-left alternative to the traditional elites. While the party retains its revolutionary symbols, such as the hammer and sickle, its political program has shifted towards a pragmatic approach, advocating for social justice, anti-corruption measures, and economic policies that prioritize the welfare of ordinary Sri Lankans.
This evolution of the JVP has made it more palatable to voters who are disillusioned with the status quo but wary of radical change. The NPP’s rise has been buoyed by its promise to tackle inequality, poverty, and corruption—issues that resonate with a population struggling under the weight of austerity measures and economic hardship. The 2024 election, therefore, represents not just a victory for Dissanayake, but for a political movement that has been decades in the making.
Sri Lanka’s Economic Crisis: A Catalyst for Change
Central to Dissanayake’s victory is the ongoing economic crisis that has gripped Sri Lanka since 2022. Years of financial mismanagement, external commercial borrowing, and speculative investments brought the country to the brink of collapse. In April 2022, Sri Lanka defaulted on its sovereign debt for the first time in its history, triggering an unprecedented financial meltdown. Inflation skyrocketed, essential goods became scarce, and public anger boiled over.
The government’s response to the crisis, led by Wickremesinghe and the Rajapaksa family, was to turn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for assistance. In March 2023, Sri Lanka signed its 17th agreement with the IMF, which imposed strict austerity measures in exchange for a bailout. These measures, which included cuts to public spending, tax increases, and reductions in subsidies, worsened the living standards of ordinary Sri Lankans. While the IMF-backed reforms were intended to stabilize the economy, they led to widespread hardship and contributed to the erosion of support for the ruling elite.
Dissanayake, in contrast, has vowed to renegotiate the terms of the IMF agreement. He has pledged to pursue policies that provide immediate relief to the population, such as subsidies for essential goods and services, while seeking long-term investment for development. His stance on the IMF reflects a broader concern about the influence of international financial institutions and powerful external actors on Sri Lanka’s sovereignty.
One of the most immediate challenges facing Dissanayake’s government is the need to address the country’s debt crisis while simultaneously offering relief to the people. The IMF agreement, which is central to Sri Lanka’s debt restructuring process, has been criticized for placing the interests of external bondholders above those of the local population. Dissanayake, aware of the public discontent with austerity, has been cautious in his rhetoric, but he has not ruled out the possibility of renegotiation.
At the heart of this dilemma is the question of whether Dissanayake’s government will have the political will and the international support necessary to pursue a more equitable economic policy. While there is widespread support for a wealth tax and other redistributive measures, there are concerns that such policies could face resistance from powerful economic interests, both domestic and foreign.
Sri Lanka’s external creditors, including China and India, hold significant sway over the country’s financial future. The question of how to balance these relationships, without surrendering control over strategic assets or resources, will be a critical test for the new administration.
Foreign Policy and the Non-Aligned Path
In addition to the economic challenges, Dissanayake’s government will have to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape. Sri Lanka’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean has made it a focal point for global powers such as China, India, and the United States. Over the past decade, Sri Lanka has increasingly become a battleground for influence between these powers, with China investing heavily in infrastructure projects, while India seeks to counter Chinese influence in the region.
Dissanayake has expressed his commitment to pursuing a non-aligned foreign policy, seeking to maintain positive relations with all major powers while prioritizing Sri Lanka’s national interests. This will require a delicate balancing act, particularly when it comes to managing the competing interests of China and India.
One of the key issues in this regard is the future of a US$442 million renewable energy project in northern Sri Lanka, which was awarded to India’s Adani Group under Wickremesinghe’s government. Dissanayake has already pledged to review the terms of this agreement, raising concerns about whether his government will face pressure from India to uphold the deal. At the same time, Sri Lanka’s heavy reliance on Chinese loans and investments adds another layer of complexity to its foreign relations.
Whether Dissanayake will be able to navigate these geopolitical tensions while maintaining Sri Lanka’s independence and securing the foreign investment needed for development remains to be seen.
While Dissanayake’s victory represents a decisive break from the past, Sri Lanka’s political landscape remains fragile. The collapse of the Rajapaksa dynasty and the decline of the UNP have created a power vacuum that could be filled by reactionary forces if the new government fails to deliver on its promises.
One of the greatest risks is the potential resurgence of xenophobic and nationalist movements, which have historically played a significant role in Sri Lankan politics. The defeat of the Rajapaksas has temporarily weakened these forces, but they remain a potent threat. If Dissanayake’s government falters, they could exploit public frustration to stage a political comeback.
At the same time, ethnic tensions, particularly between the Sinhalese majority and the Tamil and Muslim minorities, continue to simmer. Dissanayake has pledged to address the demands of minority communities, but achieving lasting reconciliation will require a comprehensive approach to addressing the root causes of conflict, including political representation, land rights, and justice for past atrocities.
Dissanayake’s victory in the 2024 presidential election marks a new chapter in Sri Lanka’s political history. His rise to power reflects the deep desire for change among the population, particularly in the face of economic hardship and political corruption. However, the challenges facing his administration are immense.
From renegotiating with the IMF and addressing the debt crisis to navigating the country’s complex foreign relations and managing internal political divisions, Dissanayake will need to strike a careful balance between bold action and pragmatic compromise.
