Armenia’s potential exit from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is gaining attention as tensions between Yerevan and Moscow escalate. Armenians are questioning the purpose of remaining in a military alliance that has shown a lack of protection. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has denied claims of an imminent change in Armenia’s foreign policy, but speculation continues about how the country might leave the CSTO and what would happen next. Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan stated that there are various options for ensuring Armenia’s security and development, including Euro-integration and non-bloc status.
Fifteen Armenian public organizations have released a statement criticizing Russia for interfering in Armenia’s internal affairs, demanding that the Armenian government expel Russia’s 102nd military base, ban Russian broadcast media, and end the country’s membership in the CSTO. The CSTO, which includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Belarus, is one of the main causes of growing Armenian resentment towards Russia. Since September last year, Armenia’s approach to the CSTO and Russia has been increasingly confrontational, with Yerevan reducing its participation in the bloc and reassigning its representative to other work. Meanwhile, Armenia has welcomed more intensive cooperation with the EU, which has deployed a civilian monitoring mission to the Azerbaijani border to support stability.
Armenia’s decision to join the European Union (EU) in December has sparked a growing cooperation between the two countries, including in the military sphere. The EU has announced plans to review military aid to Armenia through the European Peace Fund and increase the number of its monitors in Armenia. Armenia is also concerned about Russia’s alleged failure to deliver weapons it claims it paid millions for. Armenian authorities aim to resolve dispute through partnership, with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan proposing Russia canceling part of Yerevan’s debt to Moscow.
As per analysts Eurasianet, Armenia could exit the CSTO as a logical outcome of the current strained relations between Armenia and Russia. The head of the Research Center on Security Policy in Yerevan, Areg Kochinyan, suggests that Armenia could withdraw from the CSTO after approving a national security strategy that stipulates “non-bloc status” for the country. If the national security strategy were amended, it would mean Armenia has decided not to participate in any military bloc or alliance and therefore would have to leave the CSTO. However, this position would be more acceptable for Russia and other regional powers, Iran, and Turkey.
Yerevan-based political analyst David Arutyunov believes that leaving the CSTO is relatively easy due to Armenia’s close relations with Russia, including in the economic sphere and the presence of the Russian military base in Armenia. Armenia’s “non-bloc status” could potentially open up opportunities for expanding defense and military-industrial cooperation with various countries, including the West and India, that produce weapons.
Ag Kochinyan of the Research Center on Security Policy suggests that such a status could enhance Armenia’s relations with these countries to the level of strategic partnership. However, David Arutyunov believes it is too early to speak about any real prospect of Armenia being outside of any military-political alliances. He believes that bilateral relations with Russia will remain alongside contacts with the West. Gevorg Melikyan, head of the Armenian Institute for Resilience and Statecraft, is skeptical that the Armenian authorities really intend to leave the CSTO and declare non-bloc status. The Armenian government plans to persuade Western partners to treat Armenia like any other anti-Russian country, avoiding accusations of maintaining security ties with Russia due to its membership in the CSTO.
