The South China Sea disputes, long a source of regional tension, have entered a dangerous new phase, as China and the Philippines inch toward direct armed confrontation over a growing number of contested maritime features. These disputes, which have drawn the attention of global powers, are now fraught with peril as the geopolitical stakes rise, making the region a potential flashpoint for broader conflict.
The disputes revolve around a series of islands, reefs, and maritime zones claimed by multiple countries in Southeast Asia, but particularly between China and the Philippines. While the two nations have always had simmering disagreements over these territories, the situation is becoming increasingly volatile, exacerbated by the involvement of external powers like the United States.
At the heart of the conflict is China‘s expansive claim over almost the entire South China Sea, demarcated by the controversial “nine-dash line” that overlaps with the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of several Southeast Asian nations, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia. While China asserts historical rights over these areas, an international tribunal in 2016 ruled in favor of the Philippines, declaring Beijing’s claims to have no legal basis under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). China has since ignored this ruling, further stoking tensions.
In recent months, the geopolitical stakes of the confrontation have soared as the United States and its allies, including Japan and Australia, have conducted more frequent naval patrols and freedom of navigation operations in the contested waters. This has drawn Beijing’s ire, with Chinese officials accusing the U.S. of deliberately destabilizing the region. Chinese officials argue that these maneuvers are intended to interfere in what Beijing sees as a regional matter, particularly as tensions around Taiwan also grow.
The increasingly militarized nature of these waters is raising alarm, not just within Southeast Asia but also among global powers. Taiwan, though a separate issue, shares the maritime theater with the South China Sea, adding another layer of complexity to the confrontation. Chinese naval drills, along with the deployment of its coast guard and maritime militia, have become a regular occurrence, designed to reinforce its sovereignty claims.
Despite these rising tensions, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has remained largely silent on the brewing crisis. At the most recent ASEAN Summit, held in Laos, the bloc failed to produce any meaningful consensus or mechanism to address the disputes. This was particularly concerning for nations like the Philippines, which has borne the brunt of China’s maritime assertiveness.
The ASEAN summit’s chairman statement was notably devoid of any concrete measures, prompting frustration from leaders like Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who openly criticized ASEAN’s inaction. Marcos lamented that the regional bloc continues to avoid taking a firm stance on China, saying, “We continue to be subjected to harassment and intimidation.”
The lack of a unified response from ASEAN is partly attributed to the influence of China-friendly members like Laos and Cambodia. As major beneficiaries of Chinese trade and investment, these countries have shown reluctance to criticize Beijing, undermining the bloc’s ability to present a cohesive front. Chinese Premier Li Qiang, in his address at the summit, downplayed the issue, reiterating China’s commitment to “international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).”
However, many ASEAN nations remain unconvinced. Despite Li’s assurances, China has continued its militarization of disputed features, conducting naval exercises and deploying vessels to enforce its claims in the contested waters.
The Philippines, under the Marcos administration, has emerged as the most vocal critic of China within ASEAN, a position that has isolated it from some of its regional neighbors. In a notable departure from the usual diplomatic rhetoric, Marcos called out ASEAN for its slow pace in negotiating a Code of Conduct with China. The Code of Conduct, which has been under negotiation for over two decades, is intended to manage disputes in the South China Sea, but progress has been frustratingly slow.
“There should be more urgency in the pace of the negotiations of the ASEAN-China code of conduct,” Marcos said, expressing frustration that even basic concepts like “self-restraint” remain unresolved. He also criticized China for attempting to separate economic cooperation from security issues, arguing that the two are inseparable given the tensions in the South China Sea.
China has responded by portraying the Philippines as a “troublemaker” acting under the influence of its U.S. ally. The Chinese Communist Party’s mouthpiece, Global Times, has consistently accused Manila of provoking tensions at the behest of Washington. Chinese commentators have painted the Philippines as a pawn in America’s strategic rivalry with China, arguing that Manila’s policy decisions are dictated by U.S. interests rather than its own.
This narrative has been rejected by Filipino officials, who argue that the country’s stance is motivated by the need to protect its territorial integrity and uphold international law. Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Commodore Jay Tarriela emphasized that Manila’s actions reflect its commitment to the rule of law and the livelihoods of local fishermen. “Our stance is not merely a fight for our rights in the West Philippine Sea; it reflects our commitment to upholding the rule of law,” he said.
Despite the Philippines’ vocal opposition to China, most ASEAN nations have adopted a more cautious approach to the South China Sea disputes. For countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore, the primary concern is to avoid direct confrontation with China, which remains a crucial economic partner.
Malaysia, which also has competing claims in the South China Sea, has largely refrained from direct criticism of China. In a recent statement, the head of Malaysia’s navy downplayed the situation, noting that while Chinese coast guard vessels are present in Malaysian waters, they have not engaged aggressively with Malaysian ships. Nevertheless, Malaysia has continued to pursue its own oil exploration activities in disputed waters, a move that has drawn Chinese opposition.
Indonesia, the de facto leader of ASEAN, has also taken a more assertive stance in recent years, particularly under its new administration. Overlapping claims in the Natuna Islands have put Indonesia at odds with China, but Jakarta has emphasized the need for regional cooperation and the preservation of “ASEAN centrality” in managing the disputes. Last year, Indonesia hosted the first-ever all-ASEAN naval drills, which could serve as a model for future joint military exercises.
Vietnam, another key player in the South China Sea, has quietly aligned itself with the Philippines. The two countries conducted their first-ever joint coast guard drills earlier this year and are exploring closer military cooperation. Vietnam has consistently pushed back against Chinese aggression in the region, particularly in incidents involving Vietnamese fishermen.
The United States and its allies have played an increasingly prominent role in the South China Sea. U.S. naval patrols through the region, under the banner of freedom of navigation, have drawn sharp criticism from Beijing. China has accused the U.S. of “stirring up trouble” and attempting to sow discord in Southeast Asia by encouraging regional states to resist Chinese claims.
Despite these accusations, the U.S. has stepped up its support for the Philippines. Washington has provided Manila with military aid, and the two countries have conducted joint military exercises aimed at enhancing their ability to respond to potential conflicts in the South China Sea.
Japan and Australia, key U.S. allies, have also increased their involvement in the region. Japan has provided coast guard vessels to the Philippines, while Australia has conducted joint patrols with the U.S. in the contested waters.
The South China Sea disputes have entered a new and dangerous phase, with the prospect of armed conflict between China and the Philippines becoming increasingly real. As the U.S. and its allies ramp up their presence in the region, and as China becomes more assertive in its territorial claims, the stakes are higher than ever.
ASEAN’s inability to present a unified front on the issue underscores the difficulty of resolving the disputes through diplomacy alone. While countries like the Philippines and Vietnam have taken a more confrontational stance, others like Malaysia and Indonesia are more cautious, seeking to balance their territorial interests with their economic ties to China.
The risk of an accidental escalation looms large. Without a comprehensive and enforceable Code of Conduct, the South China Sea remains a powder keg, threatening not just regional security but the stability of the broader Asia-Pacific region.
