As the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region becomes increasingly intertwined with global value chains (GVCs), it faces heightened vulnerabilities amid rising global security concerns. With an economy deeply embedded in international trade, ASEAN is uniquely exposed to the impacts of economic securitization and shifting geopolitical dynamics.
The region’s economic interconnectedness, primarily through trade and foreign investment, underscores a pressing need for ASEAN to bolster its security resilience. At the heart of this objective lies the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a massive trade agreement that ASEAN pioneered. As ASEAN assumes a leadership role in implementing RCEP, it aims to secure a sustainable economic future for the region while countering the risks brought by fragmented global politics.
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The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is the largest trade bloc in the world, comprising 15 nations, including the 10 ASEAN member states, and powerhouse economies such as China, Japan, and South Korea. Together, RCEP accounts for nearly a third of the global population and the world’s economy. The agreement aims to reduce trade barriers, standardize trade practices, and support regional supply chain development. However, RCEP’s significance extends beyond mere economic integration, offering a framework that can stabilize the region amidst global uncertainties.
Despite India’s decision to withdraw from the agreement in 2019, RCEP proceeded to ratification and entered into force in January 2022, aligning with a period marked by escalating geostrategic rivalries and economic nationalism. In its implementation, RCEP has the potential to reaffirm ASEAN’s commitment to multilateralism and rules-based trade, thus offering a counterbalance to the rising trend of unilateral actions and “minilateralism” — limited alliances based on specific issues among smaller groups of countries.
The global economic landscape has shifted significantly in recent years, with increased protectionism, disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic, and intensifying U.S.–China tensions. These developments have led to greater scrutiny of supply chains and trade routes, particularly in Asia. ASEAN, a critical hub for manufacturing and trade in the region, feels the strain of these disruptions acutely. Security risks — including economic espionage, trade restrictions, and potential blockades — are growing concerns as nations prioritize self-reliance and resilience in their GVCs.
While ASEAN benefits from its vast network of trade relationships, it is disproportionately affected by the economic repercussions of escalating geopolitical competition. Increased securitization of economic activities places ASEAN in a challenging position where it must navigate between competing superpowers while safeguarding its economic interests. RCEP, as a multilateral mechanism, thus represents a pathway for ASEAN to support collective economic resilience and strategic stability.
Although RCEP presents a substantial framework for regional cooperation, its implementation has been uneven across member states. Countries like Cambodia and the Philippines have actively promoted the agreement, while others have shown limited engagement. One reason for this disparity is the delayed establishment of the RCEP Support Unit, a provisional body that provides administrative and technical assistance to member states. The slower-than-expected establishment of this unit reflects a broader challenge ASEAN faces: while negotiations receive significant attention and resources, implementation efforts are often under-resourced, impacting the effectiveness of agreements.
For ASEAN to fully leverage RCEP, it needs to prioritize and support the effective operation of the RCEP Secretariat. This involves allocating resources for monitoring compliance, facilitating trade, and ensuring that member states have the knowledge and tools needed to benefit from RCEP. If RCEP is to fulfill its potential, ASEAN’s leadership must extend beyond the negotiation table to focus on robust and efficient implementation strategies.
In the current geopolitical climate, where unilateralism is increasingly common, RCEP offers a rules-based mechanism that prioritizes cooperation over conflict. By championing this agreement, ASEAN can reinforce its position as a stabilizing force in Asia, promoting dialogue over divisive unilateral actions. This holds particular value for ASEAN’s middle-power members, such as Australia and South Korea, which seek to avoid direct confrontation in an era of geopolitical fragmentation.
The commitment to multilateral cooperation and the rules-based order has significant implications for regional security. Through RCEP, ASEAN can mitigate the security risks associated with economic dependency and enhance the resilience of supply chains. RCEP also includes provisions that address sensitive security issues, emphasizing that exceptions should only be invoked for legitimate reasons. This ensures that the framework remains stable and limits the potential for arbitrary actions that could disrupt regional trade and security.
Despite ongoing challenges, RCEP has demonstrated significant economic value since its inception. Trade intensity among RCEP countries reached a ratio of 1.76 in 2023, indicating that intra-regional trade exceeds what would be expected based on each country’s share of global trade. The agreement has also attracted substantial foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, with the region receiving nearly $460 billion in 2023 alone. This economic interdependence reinforces the shared interest among RCEP members in maintaining regional stability.
The substantial trade and investment flows among RCEP nations also reflect the region’s collective influence on global economic trends. With increasing concerns over climate change and digital transformation, RCEP’s framework could potentially serve as a platform to address these emerging issues, positioning ASEAN as a forward-looking leader in regional governance.
RCEP has faced criticism for its perceived lack of ambition compared to other regional trade agreements, such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). However, these critiques often overlook the political complexities that RCEP has successfully navigated, bringing together countries as economically diverse as Japan, Australia, Cambodia, and Laos under one framework. The gradual, incremental approach embodied in RCEP aligns with ASEAN’s longstanding method of fostering cooperation in a diverse regional setting.
The RCEP framework provides a pathway to future enhancements, allowing member states to address new challenges over time. This is consistent with ASEAN’s tradition of building consensus, fostering mutual understanding, and addressing issues as they arise. By embedding flexibility within the agreement, RCEP can adapt to changing needs and pressures, making it a resilient tool for long-term cooperation.
While RCEP offers promising benefits, these can only be realized if businesses across the region understand and utilize the agreement. ASEAN’s leadership in promoting RCEP to the private sector is crucial, as businesses are the primary drivers of trade and investment. Without adequate awareness and understanding, many companies may overlook the advantages RCEP provides, such as streamlined trade procedures and the facilitation of supply chains.
The role of the RCEP Support Unit will be instrumental in this endeavor. A well-resourced support unit can provide technical assistance, training, and informational resources to help businesses navigate the complexities of the agreement. This will also help ensure that RCEP benefits are distributed more equitably across member states, fostering greater economic integration and stability.
ASEAN’s success in negotiating and concluding RCEP was a significant achievement. However, the more critical test lies in its full and effective implementation. Through RCEP, ASEAN can reinforce regional security by fostering trust, supporting rules-based conduct, and building consensus on emerging issues, from digital trade to sustainable development. This comprehensive approach strengthens ASEAN’s role as a central actor in regional governance and enhances the resilience of Southeast Asia against external shocks.
Implementing RCEP fully also sends a signal to the global community: that ASEAN remains committed to multilateralism and values cooperation over conflict. At a time when the international rules-based order is under strain, ASEAN’s leadership in RCEP can serve as a model for constructive engagement in other regions.
