Israel’s airstrike eliminates Hezbollah’s leader, igniting a new phase in the volatile conflict and raising questions about Iran’s future influence in the region.
The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah by an Israeli airstrike on September 28 has sent shockwaves throughout the Middle East. This pivotal moment not only cripples Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy force in the region, but also deals a significant blow to Tehran, which has relied on Hezbollah to extend its influence throughout the Levant and beyond. The event follows a period of escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, intensifying regional concerns about the potential for all-out war.
The latest flare-up between Hezbollah and Israel has been the most intense since the Second Lebanon War in 2006. On October 7, 2023, the region was shaken by a brutal attack orchestrated by Hamas, a Gaza-based militant group. The assault left 1,200 Israelis dead, many of them civilians targeted in their homes or at a music festival near the Gaza border. Hezbollah, designated as a terrorist organization by countries including the United States and the United Kingdom, wasted no time expressing its solidarity with Hamas.
In the immediate aftermath of the attack, Hezbollah launched a series of rocket strikes from Lebanon, targeting Israel’s northern civilian and military infrastructure. This new front significantly expanded the scope of the conflict, forcing Israel to evacuate nearly 100,000 citizens living near its northern border with Lebanon. Israeli military and political leadership feared that Hezbollah could attempt a ground incursion similar to Hamas’ actions in southern Israel, potentially resulting in mass civilian casualties in the Galilee region.
Escalation of Hostilities
Though the initial exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah were characterized by relatively low-intensity skirmishes, they grew progressively more destructive. Hezbollah launched thousands of rockets and drones at Israeli targets, killing dozens of Israeli civilians and soldiers. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) retaliated with a series of airstrikes, targeting Hezbollah’s rocket depots and military installations in Lebanon. For several months, both sides avoided the full-scale escalation many feared. Yet the violence continued to build toward a breaking point.
One key moment came in July 2024, when a Hezbollah rocket strike killed 12 children playing soccer in Majdal Shams, a Druze village in the Golan Heights. The tragic incident triggered an Israeli response three days later, with the assassination of Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s head of strategic operations, in a Beirut airstrike. Shukr’s death marked the beginning of a targeted Israeli campaign to dismantle Hezbollah’s leadership.
In late August, another confrontation erupted when Israeli intelligence revealed that Hezbollah was preparing a large-scale missile strike against Israel’s northern and central regions. In a preemptive move, the Israeli Air Force launched an airstrike, destroying Hezbollah’s missile launchers poised to strike. Tensions escalated again in mid-September when Israel’s security cabinet made a strategic announcement: the return of displaced northern Israeli citizens to their homes had been added to Israel’s war goals, signaling an intent to neutralize the Hezbollah threat.
Lead-up to Nasrallah’s Assassination
In the weeks leading up to Nasrallah’s death, Israel made several calculated moves to weaken Hezbollah’s military capabilities. On September 16, in a covert cyber operation, thousands of Hezbollah’s pagers exploded, killing dozens of operatives and causing widespread disarray. The following day, Hezbollah’s walkie-talkie network was similarly disrupted, cutting off communication between units. Though Israel did not officially claim responsibility for these incidents, the damage inflicted was undeniable.
Hezbollah’s command structure was further dismantled on September 20, when Ibrahim Akil, the successor to Fuad Shukr, was killed in another Israeli airstrike. Akil’s death, along with that of several commanders in Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force, left the organization scrambling to fill its leadership vacuum. These assassinations were part of Israel’s broader military operation, dubbed “Northern Arrows,” which began on September 23. During this operation, the Israeli Air Force conducted 1,600 airstrikes on Hezbollah targets, including missile launchers and military infrastructure spread throughout Lebanon’s civilian areas.
Israel’s assault successfully decimated much of Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal. It is believed that Hezbollah once possessed upwards of 150,000 rockets, ranging from short-range projectiles to sophisticated, long-range missiles. A significant portion of this arsenal has now been neutralized by Israeli airstrikes, though Hezbollah still retains precision-guided munitions and drone capabilities. However, with much of its leadership gone and its operational capabilities crippled, Hezbollah is struggling to maintain its momentum in the ongoing conflict.
Nasrallah’s Death: A Turning Point?
The killing of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s long-time secretary-general, marks the most significant development in the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict in nearly two decades. Nasrallah had led Hezbollah since 1992 and was instrumental in shaping the group’s strategy and expanding its influence, both within Lebanon and across the region as Iran’s primary proxy. His death has left Hezbollah leaderless at a critical juncture in the conflict.
The impact of Nasrallah’s assassination extends far beyond Hezbollah’s military ranks. Iran, Hezbollah’s chief sponsor, has lost its most effective partner in the Middle East. Nasrallah was more than a military leader; he was a key figure in Iran’s regional strategy, serving as the face of resistance against Israel and a force multiplier for Iran’s ambitions in Lebanon, Syria, and beyond.
So far, Iran has not shown signs of intervening directly in the conflict to support Hezbollah. This has raised questions about the future of Tehran’s proxy strategy. Hezbollah has long been one of Iran’s most powerful assets in the region, but with Nasrallah gone and Hezbollah weakened, the broader Middle Eastern proxy network may be reconsidering its loyalty to Iran.
Tehran’s Silence and Regional Repercussions
Hezbollah’s allies in Beirut, Damascus, and Gaza must now be wondering whether Iran will continue to stand by them if they face similar threats. Iran’s failure to militarily back Hezbollah during its most significant crisis in decades raises concerns about the cost of aligning with Tehran.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s influence extends deeply into the country’s political and economic systems. Nasrallah’s assassination is not just a military loss but a political one that could shift Lebanon’s delicate power balance. Hezbollah’s military power has long allowed it to dominate Lebanese politics. However, with the group’s military structure severely weakened, this dominance may be under threat.
There are growing fears that Lebanon could descend into further instability. Hezbollah’s involvement in Lebanese politics has long stymied efforts to address the country’s profound economic crisis. With the group now facing its own existential challenges, Lebanon’s already fragile government could face additional strain.
s for Ceasefire
The international community is watching closely, and there have been increasing calls for a ceasefire to prevent the conflict from spiraling into a wider regional war. The United States and France have led efforts to push for a 21-day ceasefire, but Israel remains resolute. Much like its ongoing operation against Hamas in Gaza, the Israeli government has made it clear that it intends to neutralize the Hezbollah threat before considering any cessation of hostilities.
The question now is whether Israel will pursue a ground invasion of Lebanon. Though IDF Chief of Staff, Major General Herzi Halevi, has indicated that preparations are underway for such an operation, many analysts believe Israel may prefer to continue relying on airstrikes. Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000, followed by its limited ground invasion during the 2006 Lebanon War, have left a reluctance to re-engage in large-scale ground operations. Additionally, the success of Israel’s aerial campaign thus far may reduce the need for a costly and risky ground invasion.
Hezbollah and Iran’s Influence
The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah has profoundly weakened Hezbollah at a time when the group was already struggling to maintain its operational momentum. Israel’s ongoing military operations have dismantled much of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, and the group’s leadership has been decimated. For Iran, Nasrallah’s death is a significant blow, raising questions about its ability to project power through its regional proxies.
As Hezbollah grapples with its future, the international community faces a daunting challenge: how to contain the conflict before it spirals out of control. For now, Israel seems determined to finish what it started, while Hezbollah and its allies are left to assess their losses and reconsider their strategies. Whether the situation leads to a lasting shift in the balance of power in the Middle East remains to be seen.
