A new Resolve Political Monitor poll for Nine Newspapers has painted a grim picture of Australians’ financial vulnerability and economic pessimism heading into the final months of 2025. The survey, conducted between November 4 and 8 from a nationally representative sample of 1,804 voters, found that 61% of Australians would struggle to afford an unexpected expense of just a few thousand dollars, the highest level of financial stress recorded since Resolve began asking this question in early 2023.
By contrast, only 24% said they would not struggle — a stark 37-point gap, widening from the 14-point margin recorded in December 2024, when 50% said they would struggle versus 36% who would not. The data underscores how much household pressure has intensified amid stagnant wages, persistent inflation, and rising borrowing costs.
When asked who bears the most responsibility for rising living costs, 42% of respondents blamed the federal government, up sharply from midyear levels. Another 16% pointed to global factors such as supply chain disruptions or international conflicts, while 11% blamed state governments, 7% the Reserve Bank, and 7% businesses.
In line with this mood, 42% expect the economy to worsen over the next six months, compared with only 20% who think it will improve and 29% who foresee little change. This marks one of the most pessimistic outlooks since 2022, when the Reserve Bank began its rapid cycle of interest rate hikes to contain inflation.
The findings came less than two weeks after the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a 1.3% rise in the September quarter Consumer Price Index — the highest quarterly inflation increase since March 2023. The surge was driven largely by rent, insurance, and food prices, with energy costs also rebounding despite government rebates.
Despite growing discontent, the poll shows Labor maintaining a 53–47% lead over the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis, though this represents a two-point gain for the opposition since October. Based on preference flows observed at the 2025 federal election, Labor’s lead would narrow further to 54.5–45.5%, suggesting a modest but steady drift back toward the Coalition.
In primary vote terms, Labor slipped one point to 33%, the Coalition rose one to 29%, the Greens climbed to 12%, One Nation held steady at 12%, independents fell two points to 7%, and other minor parties dropped to 6%.
Although Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s overall support is softening, his personal approval improved six points to net zero, with 44% rating him both positively and negatively. Opposition Leader Sussan Ley’s approval fell slightly to -7, with only a quarter of voters expressing confidence in her leadership.
Albanese maintained a commanding 39–25% lead over Ley as preferred prime minister, though this represents a slight narrowing from 40–23% in October.
When voters were asked who they trusted more to manage the economy, Labor led the Liberals 31–29%, a small improvement from 29–28% in October. However, on the key issue of keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals reversed Labor’s earlier advantage, now leading 28–27% after trailing 24–28% just a month earlier.
With 42% of respondents naming the cost of living as their top concern, and no other issue reaching double digits, the political implications are stark: the next election — widely expected in mid-2026 — will hinge on voters’ hip pockets.
One of the most striking shifts in public sentiment has been the surge in popularity of right-wing and far-right figures.
Pauline Hanson, the leader of One Nation, saw her net likeability soar 21 points to +8, her best result in over five years. Former Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce also improved markedly, up 14 points to -8, while Liberal MP Andrew Hastie climbed four points to +8, consolidating his standing as a conservative standard-bearer within the Liberal Party.
Despite this ideological momentum, Resolve did not record a corresponding increase in One Nation’s primary vote, which remains stable at 12%. Analysts suggest Hanson’s gains reflect frustration with both major parties rather than a decisive realignment of voter intention.
Notably, Ley’s approval rating of -7 contrasts sharply with her -33 result in a late October Newspoll, underscoring substantial variation between polling methodologies and possible volatility in public opinion.
Alongside the federal survey, Resolve and DemosAU also conducted several state-level polls, revealing divergent regional trends.
A Resolve poll for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted jointly with the federal survey, found NSW Labor’s primary vote at 37% (down one since September), the Coalition steady at 28%, the Greens steady at 10%, independents up to 15%, and others down to 11%.
While Labor retains a commanding estimated two-party lead of around 59–41%, Premier Chris Minns’ personal standing has slipped. His preferred premier lead over Liberal leader Mark Speakman fell to 31–19%, down from 37–16% in September — his narrowest margin since taking office in 2023.
Minns’ net likeability rose slightly to +14, suggesting his decline is driven more by voter fatigue than active hostility. Speakman’s likeability improved modestly to +3, continuing a slow recovery since his low point in April. The next NSW election is due in March 2027.
In Victoria, a DemosAU poll conducted October 21–27 found the Coalition leading Labor 51–49% on two-party terms, unchanged from September. Primary votes were 37% Coalition, 26% Labor, 15% Greens, and 22% for other parties.
Opposition Leader Brad Battin has widened his personal advantage, leading Premier Jacinta Allan 40–32% as preferred premier, up three points since September. The Victorian election is scheduled for November 2026, and the race is tightening as cost-of-living anger hits Melbourne’s mortgage belt.
In the upper house, voting intentions differ sharply: Coalition 30%, Labor 21%, Greens 14%, One Nation 11%, Family First 5%, Libertarian 4%, Animal Justice 3%. Analysts caution that the combined Labor-Coalition total is 12 points lower than in the lower house, underscoring voter appetite for minor parties.
All 40 upper house seats will again be contested under Victoria’s proportional representation system, electing five members per region.
In Tasmania, DemosAU polling from October 16–27 (sample 1,021) showed the Liberals at 41%, roughly matching their 39.9% share at the July election, while Labor slipped to 24%, the Greens rose slightly to 15%, independents held 14%, and smaller parties like the Shooters and Legalise Cannabis remained marginal.
Tasmania’s proportional lower house system makes a two-party estimate meaningless, but Premier Jeremy Rockliff remains comfortably ahead as preferred premier, 46–34% over Labor leader Josh Willie.
Respondents’ impressions of state leaders revealed deep divides:
Rockliff: +5 net rating
Guy Barnett (Deputy Premier): -14
Treasurer Eric Abetz: -19
Josh Willie: -5
Former Labor leader Dean Winter: -33
Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff: -20
Despite modest approval ratings for individual ministers, the Liberal government remains electorally resilient — buoyed by perceptions of stability and competence compared with a fragmented opposition.
Attention is also turning north to Queensland, where a by-election in the state seat of Hinchinbrook is set for November 29 following the resignation of Nick Dametto of the Katter’s Australian Party (KAP), who is running for mayor of Townsville.
At the 2024 election, Dametto trounced the LNP’s Annette Swaine 63.2–36.8%, drawing 46.4% of primary votes, compared with 28.2% for the LNP and 14.0% for Labor. The upcoming contest will serve as a bellwether for both regional populist parties and the mainstream conservatives. The KAP, LNP, and Labor have already announced candidates, with smaller parties expected to join the race in coming days.
In the United States, a dramatic weekend Senate vote ended the longest government shutdown in U.S. history after eight Democrats joined nearly all Republicans to reach the 60 votes needed to end a filibuster — passing a bill to reopen the government 60–40.
Republicans currently control the Senate 53–47, and the bipartisan deal will now move to the House of Representatives, where it is expected to pass swiftly.
However, the episode has dealt a severe political blow to President Donald Trump, whose approval ratings have slumped to a new term low following major Democratic victories in New Jersey and Virginia’s state elections. Many observers say the Senate vote will be seen as Democrats conceding unnecessarily to Trump, deepening internal divisions within the party ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Across Australia, the Resolve and DemosAU polling series reveal a consistent through-line: economic pain is reshaping political loyalties.
While Labor remains ahead federally and in most states, its dominance now rests on shaky ground — as voters grow increasingly restless over inflation, housing, and stagnant wages. The cost-of-living crisis, not ideological realignment, appears to be the defining force behind both the rise of right-wing populists and the gradual erosion of traditional party loyalties.
With more than six in ten Australians saying they would struggle to pay an unexpected bill, the message from voters is unmistakable: economic credibility now matters more than ever.
