Australia’s political landscape continues to reflect deep divisions, with a national Newspoll conducted between September 16 and 20 showing a deadlock at 50-50 for the third consecutive time. The poll, based on a sample size of 1,249 voters, highlights the ongoing balance of power between the major parties, the Liberal-National Coalition and the Labor Party, as the nation grapples with economic challenges and voter dissatisfaction.
The results of the Newspoll underscore a stagnant political environment with primary votes showing little movement. The Coalition held steady at 38%, while Labor’s primary vote slipped by one point to 31%. The Greens, a rising force in Australian politics, gained one point to 13%, continuing their steady upward trend. One Nation, known for its populist appeal, dropped by one point to 6%, while other minor parties and independents saw a slight increase, capturing 12% of the vote.
These figures suggest a volatile voter base, particularly among the smaller parties and independents, which have become crucial in deciding tight elections.
Approval Ratings: Albanese Gains Ground as Dutton Stumbles
In terms of leadership approval, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese experienced a modest recovery. His net approval rating improved by five points, bringing him to a still negative -8, with 51% of voters expressing dissatisfaction and 43% expressing satisfaction with his performance. While this rebound suggests that Albanese has managed to regain some lost ground after his approval rating dropped to -13 three weeks ago, it also indicates that he remains in a precarious position.
On the other hand, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s net approval rating worsened slightly, dropping by two points to -15. Despite this, Dutton remains competitive in the eyes of voters, with a 46-37 lead for Albanese as the preferred Prime Minister— a one-point gain from the previous poll.
The polling data reflects a broader discontent with both leaders, as Australians face significant economic challenges, particularly in the areas of housing, groceries, and energy costs.
Voters Concerned About Cost of Living: Housing Tops the List
When asked about the cost of living, 40% of respondents identified housing as their primary concern. This figure highlights the critical nature of Australia’s housing crisis, which has been exacerbated by rising interest rates, stagnant wages, and limited supply. Groceries followed as a significant concern, with 25% of voters citing it as their primary issue. Energy costs, another major economic burden for many Australians, were highlighted by 18% of respondents, while insurance costs rounded out the top worries with 11%.
These numbers point to a growing frustration among voters regarding economic management, an issue that is likely to dominate the next federal election.
Comparing Polls: Newspoll More Favorable for Albanese
While the Newspoll numbers are not entirely rosy for Albanese, they are notably more favorable compared to other recent federal polls. In a YouGov poll conducted between September 13 and 19, Albanese’s net approval fell sharply to -22, with 58% of voters expressing dissatisfaction and only 36% satisfied with his leadership. This represents an 11-point drop from earlier polling, signaling a deeper malaise among the electorate.
In the same YouGov poll, the Coalition managed to tie with Labor at 50-50, with primary votes showing 39% support for the Coalition (up two points), 30% for Labor (down two points), and 14% for the Greens (up one). Despite these primary vote shifts, the poll still indicates a closely fought contest.
Similarly, a Freshwater poll for the Financial Review, conducted on September 13-14, gave the Coalition one of its best results this term, with a 52-48 lead over Labor. Primary votes in the Freshwater poll stood at 42% for the Coalition (up one), 30% for Labor (down two), and 13% for the Greens (up one). This poll also saw Albanese’s net approval fall five points to -15, while Dutton’s approval dropped by just one point to -4, underscoring the Coalition’s stronger position relative to Labor in this survey.
Freshwater’s findings emphasize the growing public perception that the Coalition is better equipped to manage the economy. A significant 74% of respondents listed the cost of living as a top concern, and the Coalition expanded its lead over Labor on this issue from seven points in August to a commanding 14-point advantage in September. On broader economic management, the Coalition held a 16-point lead, further strengthening its position ahead of the next federal election.
Queensland Newspoll: LNP Holds Commanding Lead as State Election Approaches
The upcoming Queensland state election, set for October 26, provides a further indication of shifting political winds. A Newspoll conducted between September 12 and 18 from a sample of 1,047 voters showed the Liberal National Party (LNP) with a solid 55-45 lead over the incumbent Labor government, a one-point gain for the LNP since the previous Newspoll in March. This puts the LNP in a strong position to wrest control from Labor after nearly a decade of governance.
In terms of primary votes, the LNP held steady at 42%, while Labor also remained unchanged at 30%. The Greens saw a one-point drop to 12%, while One Nation stayed flat at 8%, and other minor parties and independents rose to 8%.
Despite the grim outlook for Labor, Premier Steven Miles saw a slight improvement in his personal approval rating, with his net approval rising by one point to -10. Fifty-one percent of respondents were dissatisfied with his performance, while 41% expressed satisfaction. In contrast, LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net approval fell by two points to +12. Crisafulli, however, continues to lead as the preferred Premier, with a 46-39 advantage over Miles, a slight increase from the 43-37 lead he held in March.
The poll also revealed that a majority of Queenslanders—57%—believe it is time for a change in government, while only 29% think Labor deserves to be re-elected. Despite these figures, the poll offers a small glimmer of hope for Labor, as the margin of dissatisfaction has narrowed slightly since March.
Other Polling Results: Coalition Gains Momentum in Freshwater, Morgan, and MRP Polls
Further corroborating the trend towards a tightening race between the major parties, a national Morgan poll conducted between September 9 and 15 from a sample of 1,634 voters showed Labor clinging to a slim 50.5-49.5 lead, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition. Primary votes in the Morgan poll stood at 37.5% for the Coalition (up one point), 30.5% for Labor (up 0.5), and 12.5% for the Greens (down two). One Nation, meanwhile, saw its vote share drop by 0.5 points to 5.5%.
The poll’s headline figure is based on respondent preferences, which can vary slightly from election outcomes. Using preferences based on the 2022 federal election, Labor’s lead over the Coalition was unchanged at 52-48.
A Redbridge and Accent Research multi-level regression with post-stratification (MRP) poll, conducted between July 10 and August 27 from a large sample of 5,976 respondents, also indicated a 50-50 tie. This poll marks a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous MRP poll conducted earlier in the year. The primary votes in this MRP poll were 38% for the Coalition (up two), 32% for Labor (steady), 12% for the Greens (down one), and 19% for all other candidates and independents.
Interestingly, MRP polls use modelling to estimate the number of seats each party would win. The August MRP poll projected Labor securing 69 seats out of 150, the Coalition 68, the Greens three, and independents and minor parties taking 10 seats. In the previous May poll, Labor was projected to win 77 seats, underscoring a weakening position.
While no major party is expected to secure a majority of 76 seats based on these numbers, Labor retains a 75% chance of winning the most seats according to the MRP model. However, these figures reflect current polling data and are not predictions for the next federal election, which is due by May 2025.
The latest rounds of polling reflect a political environment characterized by uncertainty, with both major parties struggling to capture a decisive lead. As the Albanese government grapples with a difficult economic climate, particularly around cost of living issues, the Coalition has made steady gains. However, the political stalemate, as evidenced by the consistent 50-50 ties in multiple polls, suggests that voters remain unconvinced by either party’s vision for the future. With federal and state elections looming, both Labor and the Coalition will need to intensify their efforts to sway a fickle electorate.
