Australia’s population is set to keep growing over the coming decades, even as the country records its lowest-ever birth rate and the Federal Government insists it has significantly tightened migration settings after a post-pandemic surge.
According to the 2025 Population Statement released on Friday, Australia added an estimated 416,000 people in 2024–25. Population growth is forecast to slow to around 362,000 in the current financial year, reflecting a sharp decline in net overseas migration and a continuing fall in natural increase as births edge closer to deaths.
Despite this moderation, the projections underline how deeply migration has become embedded as the main driver of population growth. In 2024–25, net international migration contributed about 311,100 people to Australia’s population, compared with 105,400 added through natural increase, where births exceeded deaths.
While migration remains dominant, the numbers represent a substantial pullback from recent highs. Net overseas migration fell from 428,700 the previous year and is well below the peak of around 556,000 recorded in the year to September 2023, when international borders fully reopened after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the latest data confirmed that population growth was now easing from extraordinary post-pandemic levels. He noted that net overseas migration for 2024–25 had come in lower than earlier forecasts and was now close to half of the post-COVID peak.
Migration is expected to continue trending downward over the next few years, dragging overall population growth with it. However, even with tighter settings, Australia’s population is still projected to rise steadily, reshaping cities, infrastructure demand, and the age profile of the nation.
One of the most striking projections is the continued expansion of Australia’s two largest cities. Melbourne and Sydney are both forecast to surpass populations of eight million by around 2065, reinforcing their status as global megacities and intensifying pressure on housing, transport, and services.
The data also point to a growing concentration of people in metropolitan areas. By 2065, nearly three-quarters of Australians are expected to live in capital cities, up from about 68 per cent today. Regional growth is forecast to lag behind, raising questions about long-term economic balance and service delivery outside major urban centres.
The population statement lands amid an increasingly heated national debate over migration levels, housing affordability, and infrastructure strain, alongside a visible rise in support for parties and policies calling for tougher immigration controls.
New South Wales Premier Chris Minns pushed back against anti-immigration sentiment, arguing that new arrivals often display a strong commitment to Australian values. Speaking at a press conference on Friday, Minns said many migrants were deeply proud of their decision to become part of Australian society.
He said that provided people embraced democratic principles, the rule of law, respect for women, and respect for diversity, they should be welcomed. Minns argued that new migrants were frequently among the most patriotic Australians, precisely because they understood how stable and free the country was compared with many parts of the world.
At the same time, the population outlook highlights a demographic challenge that migration alone cannot solve. Australia’s fertility rate has fallen to a record low of 1.45 children per woman and is expected to drop even further this year, well below the replacement rate of about 2.1.
The sustained decline in births means natural increase will continue to shrink and, in some states, eventually turn negative. Tasmania is projected to become the first state or territory where deaths outnumber births, around 2028–29. South Australia is forecast to follow later, likely in the 2060s.
Dr Chalmers said the Albanese Government was attempting to balance migration management with policies designed to support families and ease cost-of-living pressures that may discourage people from having children.
He pointed to measures such as the new three-day guarantee for early childhood education and care, along with expanded and enhanced paid parental leave, as part of a broader effort to give families more choice and security.
State-level projections show uneven growth across the country. Western Australia is expected to remain the fastest-growing state, with population growth of around 1.8 per cent in 2025–26, down from 2.2 per cent the year before. Victoria, Queensland, and New South Wales are all forecast to maintain growth above one per cent, driven largely by migration and strong urban economies.
In contrast, Tasmania’s growth is expected to be just 0.1 per cent, highlighting the demographic pressures facing smaller and older populations.
Australia’s ageing trend is another major theme in the projections. The median age of the population, currently 38.4, is forecast to rise to 40 within a decade and to nearly 44 by 2065–66. This shift is set to intensify pressure on aged care, healthcare services, and the workforce, as a smaller proportion of working-age people supports a growing older population.
Taken together, the figures paint a complex picture: a nation still growing, but more slowly; increasingly reliant on migration; more urbanised; and significantly older. Managing these intersecting trends will remain one of the central policy challenges for governments at all levels in the decades ahead.
