After more than three years of grinding conflict in Ukraine and enduring a cascade of sanctions, Russia may be preparing to field a nuclear-tipped air-to-air missile—a first in modern military history. This bombshell was buried in an annual threat assessment released earlier this month by the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). Though mentioned only briefly, the implications are seismic.
According to the DIA report, “Russia is expanding its nuclear forces by adding new capabilities, including nuclear air-to-air missiles and novel nuclear systems.” The United States had previously explored this capability during the Cold War, developing the AIM-26 Falcon, which was eventually decommissioned. No country currently deploys such a system.
Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), brought attention to this development in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on May 21, amplifying what could be a transformational leap in air-to-air warfare.
The nuclear air-to-air concept isn’t entirely new. During the 1950s and 1960s, both the U.S. and the Soviet Union developed nuclear-tipped missiles designed to eliminate entire bomber formations. But these were shelved due to the shift in strategic doctrines and arms control agreements. The reappearance of this idea suggests a stark recalibration in Moscow’s thinking.
The DIA report refrains from offering specifics—no name, range, or development stage is given. But experts speculate that the missile in question might be a modified version of the R-37M, Russia’s most advanced long-range air-to-air missile. Kristensen noted in his post, “Potentially AA-13 (R-37?) displayed in 2024 exercise.”
The R-37M is already a formidable weapon. With a range of 300–400 kilometers, it can engage high-speed, high-altitude targets with deadly precision. It’s compatible with a range of Russian fighter aircraft including the MiG-31, Su-30SM, Su-35S, and the Su-57 stealth fighter.
Reports dating back to 2022 show that Russia has deployed the R-37M extensively in Ukraine, often firing up to six missiles a day. Their long range has forced Ukrainian pilots to alter flight paths or remain grounded, severely degrading Ukrainian air capabilities.
However, there’s no concrete proof that the R-37M has been or will be equipped with a nuclear payload. Equally plausible is the emergence of an entirely new missile, designed from the ground up for a nuclear role.
This development comes at a time when nuclear arms control is on increasingly shaky ground. At the Davos Summit in January 2025, President Donald Trump expressed interest in restarting nuclear disarmament talks with Russia and China. “We want to see if we can denuclearize, and I think that’s very possible,” he said.
In February 2025, Trump doubled down, suggesting trilateral talks to reduce military budgets and repurpose funds for economic development. But hopes for meaningful dialogue are tempered by the reality on the ground: Russia continues to expand its nuclear arsenal.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indicated in January that Russia was open to restarting talks, particularly to address the New START treaty set to expire in February 2026. Despite this, Moscow’s actions tell a different story.
The DIA report also highlights the expansion of Russia’s nuclear footprint in Belarus. This includes the deployment of nuclear-capable aircraft, renovation of storage facilities, and training of Belarusian crews. President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed in December 2023 that Russia had completed nuclear weapons shipments to Belarus.
Though Belarus doesn’t control these warheads, its military doctrine has been updated to integrate their use, adding another layer of volatility to Eastern Europe. Russia has also announced plans to station the Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile in Belarus by the second half of 2025.
The DIA estimates Russia’s nuclear arsenal at around 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and up to 2,000 tactical warheads. But other organizations paint a more expansive picture. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists estimates Russia’s stockpile at approximately 4,309 warheads, including about 1,718 deployed strategic warheads and 1,477 tactical ones.
The lack of transparency adds to the unease. Since 2023, Russia has ceased exchanging official data on its strategic nuclear forces with the U.S., a cornerstone of previous arms control agreements.
The DIA’s note on the nuclear air-to-air missile fits into a broader pattern. In 2024, Russia conducted a non-strategic nuclear readiness exercise involving the R-33 missile. While the R-33 usually carries a conventional warhead, its design theoretically allows for nuclear payloads. The specific missile used in the drill, however, has not been officially confirmed to be nuclear-capable.
The introduction of a nuclear air-to-air missile could serve a strategic purpose beyond combat effectiveness. Experts suggest it might be designed to counter high-value American assets like the B-21 Raider stealth bomber. A single nuclear missile detonated near a bomber formation could neutralize an entire flight, restoring deterrence parity in an age of stealth and electronic warfare.
While the West remains concerned about Russian nuclear saber-rattling, the DIA report notes that Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons unless it perceives an existential threat to its regime. Yet, the continued modernization and diversification of its arsenal signal that Moscow is preparing for a broad spectrum of contingencies—from regional deterrence to full-scale war.
Nuclear brinksmanship has become a key component of Russia’s geopolitical playbook. Threats against Ukraine and NATO have become almost routine since 2022. Military drills featuring nuclear-capable forces aim to project strength and deter Western involvement in Ukraine.
Although the Pentagon has increasingly focused on China as its principal strategic competitor, Russia’s ongoing nuclear developments confirm its relevance. The idea that Moscow is “back in the game” is underscored by its consistent efforts to innovate and deploy new nuclear weapons systems, even under the strain of war and economic sanctions.
The threat is not just in numbers but in capability and posture. A nuclear-tipped air-to-air missile could shift the balance in air superiority contests, challenging NATO doctrines that have relied on conventional aerial dominance.
The lack of detailed information leaves analysts in a speculative loop. But the broader signals are unmistakable: Russia is doubling down on nuclear deterrence, investing in flexible, diversified capabilities that challenge traditional arms control frameworks.
Whether the missile is a variant of the R-37M or a wholly new platform, its development marks a dangerous evolution in nuclear doctrine. The return of nuclear air-to-air weapons resurrects a long-abandoned concept—one that could redefine strategic air warfare.
