Canada is reportedly considering a dramatic expansion of its future fighter fleet, potentially combining American F-35 Lightning II stealth fighters with Swedish Gripen E/F aircraft in a move that could reshape the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) while reflecting growing international uncertainty surrounding the United States’ flagship combat aircraft program.
The development comes as the Lockheed Martin F-35 faces increasing headwinds across multiple markets since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025. A number of current and prospective customers have either reduced planned purchases, delayed procurement decisions, or abandoned acquisition plans altogether amid concerns about Washington’s reliability as a defense partner and broader geopolitical tensions.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government placed Canada’s planned acquisition of 88 F-35A fighters under review in March 2025 following a deterioration in relations with the Trump administration. While Ottawa remains committed to accepting the first 16 aircraft that have already been paid for, the future of the remaining 72 jets has remained uncertain.
The review was initially expected to conclude by the end of summer 2025. However, no final decision has been announced, fueling speculation that Ottawa is weighing a more ambitious approach to modernizing its air force.
According to a recent CBC report citing industry and government sources, Canada is now examining the possibility of operating a significantly larger mixed fleet consisting of both F-35A Lightning II fighters and Saab Gripen E/F aircraft.
Under the reported scenario, Ottawa could proceed with the acquisition of between 72 and 88 F-35s while simultaneously purchasing at least 72 Gripen fighters. One source cited by CBC suggested that Canada’s future combat fleet could eventually reach approximately 140 aircraft.
Although the report has not been independently verified, it aligns with several signals from the Carney government suggesting that Ottawa is not yet prepared to walk away from the F-35 program despite political tensions with Washington.
Canada’s review gained additional momentum after Swedish aerospace company Saab presented an enhanced proposal centered on the Gripen E/F fighter.
The revised package reportedly includes 72 Gripen fighters and six GlobalEye airborne early warning and surveillance aircraft. More significantly, Saab has emphasized industrial and sovereignty benefits that could appeal to Canadian policymakers.
The offer includes local manufacturing opportunities, extensive technology transfer arrangements, access to mission-system source codes, sovereign control over operational data, and the ability for Canada to independently maintain and upgrade the aircraft throughout their service life.
These provisions stand in contrast to concerns frequently raised by critics of the F-35 program, who argue that the highly networked American fighter leaves operators dependent on U.S. support for software updates, logistics, and sustainment.
For Ottawa, the appeal of such autonomy has increased amid a period of strained bilateral relations with Washington.
Despite the ongoing review, several developments suggest that Canada remains deeply invested in the F-35 program.
Lieutenant-General Jamie Speiser-Blanchet, commander of the Royal Canadian Air Force, attended ceremonies marking the start of final assembly for Canada’s first F-35A. In addition, Ottawa has already paid for critical components associated with 14 additional aircraft beyond the initial batch.
Defense Minister David McGuinty and other government officials have carefully avoided ruling out additional F-35 purchases while simultaneously keeping alternative options under consideration.
Within Canada’s defense establishment, support for completing the original acquisition remains strong. Senior military officials and opposition Conservative politicians have repeatedly argued that the F-35 is the only available fifth-generation fighter capable of providing the stealth, sensor fusion, and advanced networking capabilities required to counter emerging threats from Russia and China.
Supporters also emphasize the aircraft’s importance for interoperability with the United States under the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), the binational framework responsible for defending North American airspace.
Washington has previously suggested that abandoning the F-35 purchase could complicate future NORAD cooperation, adding another layer of strategic pressure to Canada’s deliberations.
Some analysts believe the review itself may have been intended more as a diplomatic signal than a genuine effort to cancel the program.
According to that interpretation, Carney’s government sought to express dissatisfaction with U.S. policies while preserving flexibility to ultimately continue with the acquisition. Observers have also noted that the fate of the F-35 program could become a bargaining chip in broader negotiations surrounding the renewal of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).
Canada’s uncertainty reflects a broader trend affecting the F-35 program since Trump’s return to office.
Although the aircraft remains the world’s most successful fifth-generation fighter, several countries have reconsidered their procurement plans amid concerns over U.S. foreign policy, tariff disputes, and alliance commitments.
Portugal became one of the first nations to publicly step back from the aircraft in March 2025 when it abandoned plans to purchase up to 36 F-35s as replacements for its aging F-16 fleet.
At the time, outgoing Defense Minister Nuno Melo cited concerns about dependence on an increasingly unpredictable ally.
“The world has changed,” Melo said, warning that political decisions in Washington could affect maintenance, components, and long-term operational availability.
Spain followed with its own decision to shelve plans for acquiring the stealth fighter.
Madrid had previously allocated approximately €6.25 billion ($7.24 billion) for new fighter aircraft, but shifting priorities toward strengthening Europe’s indigenous defense capabilities ultimately pushed the F-35 out of contention.
The decision reflected a wider movement across Europe toward greater strategic autonomy, driven in part by growing concerns over the reliability of transatlantic security arrangements.
Switzerland also scaled back its commitment to the aircraft.
In December 2025, the Swiss government instructed its Defense Ministry to purchase only as many F-35A fighters as could be acquired within the original budget framework of approximately $7.54 billion.
The move effectively reduced the scope of a deal that had originally envisioned the purchase of 36 aircraft.
Swiss officials cited rising costs and budget constraints. Government statements indicated that maintaining the original fleet size would require additional funding that was not politically acceptable.
The controversy was intensified by disagreements regarding pricing assumptions. Swiss authorities reportedly believed the negotiated figure represented a fixed procurement price, while U.S. officials later clarified that inflation-related adjustments could increase costs over time.
The political environment became even more complicated after the Trump administration imposed a 39 percent tariff on Swiss goods, providing additional ammunition to domestic critics who questioned the wisdom of purchasing major American defense equipment.
India represents another market where enthusiasm for the F-35 appears to have cooled.
President Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance publicly floated the possibility of an F-35 sale to New Delhi in early 2025, and the aircraft’s appearance at the Aero India exhibition generated substantial international attention.
The event was particularly notable because it marked one of the first occasions when the F-35 and Russia’s Su-57 fighter appeared at the same air show.
Despite the publicity, no meaningful progress toward a procurement decision has emerged.
Relations between Washington and New Delhi deteriorated later in the year after the United States imposed a 50 percent tariff on Indian goods, one of the highest rates applied to any major trading partner. Additional friction resulted from Trump’s repeated assertions regarding the resolution of the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, claims that Indian officials strongly disputed.
Against that backdrop, prospects for an F-35 deal have appeared increasingly uncertain.
Lockheed Martin’s difficulties have not been limited to international sales campaigns.
The company suffered a major setback in March 2025 when Boeing secured the contract for the U.S. Air Force’s next-generation F-47 fighter, defeating Lockheed in one of the most important defense competitions of the decade.
The loss was particularly significant given Lockheed Martin’s dominant position in fifth-generation fighter development through the F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II programs.
The company had also previously withdrawn from the U.S. Navy’s F/A-XX next-generation fighter competition, leaving it without a leading role in either of America’s major sixth-generation combat aircraft initiatives.
In response, Lockheed Martin has sought to reposition the F-35 as a platform capable of incorporating advanced technologies originally developed for next-generation programs.
Chief Executive Jim Taiclet has argued that many innovations associated with the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) effort can be integrated into the existing F-35 design at substantially lower cost.
Speaking in April 2025, Taiclet suggested that as much as 80 percent of sixth-generation technologies could eventually be incorporated into the aircraft.
“We’re basically going to take the chassis and turn it into a Ferrari,” Taiclet said, describing a future “fifth-generation plus” version of the fighter.
According to Lockheed’s vision, thousands of F-35s expected to enter service worldwide could receive successive capability upgrades that narrow the gap between current-generation aircraft and future sixth-generation platforms.
Whether that strategy succeeds may depend heavily on the decisions now being made in capitals such as Ottawa.
For Canada, the fighter review has evolved into far more than a procurement decision. It has become a test of how middle powers balance operational requirements, industrial interests, alliance obligations, and national sovereignty in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment.
