As Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House looms over the political horizon, a growing number of anxious Americans are revisiting the idea of moving to Canada. The phenomenon, which has surfaced after previous Republican victories, seems to have gained renewed urgency as Trump solidifies his standing in the 2024 presidential race.
Immigration lawyers and experts in Canada report surges in inquiries during what they term “panic periods” — specific moments in the U.S. political cycle that cause heightened concern among left-leaning or otherwise politically disillusioned Americans. These spikes often coincide with major political developments, such as presidential debates, election victories, or controversial policy announcements.
Vancouver immigration lawyer Randall Cohn recounts two distinct surges in interest following major political events.
“The first wave came after one of Biden’s disastrous TV debates with Trump, when people began worrying about the possibility of another Trump administration,” Cohn told AFP. “The second uptick occurred in the weeks leading up to the election as Trump gained momentum.”
This trend isn’t new. In 2016, after Trump’s unexpected electoral victory, Canada’s immigration website crashed under the weight of elevated traffic. Similarly, Google Trends recorded a staggering 1,000% increase in U.S.-based searches for “moving to Canada.”
Despite the intense interest, the number of Americans who actually relocate north of the border due to political dissatisfaction remains low. Immigrating to Canada is a complex and arduous process, with multiple hurdles that deter all but the most committed.
The idea of left-leaning Americans becoming “Canada-curious” predates Trump. Similar spikes were observed when Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter in 1980, reflecting a longstanding political divide that motivates some to seek greener pastures abroad.
Yet, as Jacqueline Bonisteel, a partner at the Corporate Immigration Law Firm, notes, making the move is often far harder than most realize. “Somebody with no pre-existing connection to Canada is going to have a really, really difficult time,” she said.
Americans contemplating life in Canada often underestimate the challenges of navigating the country’s immigration system. Cohn describes fielding calls from “fairly wealthy” individuals disillusioned by Trump’s political comeback, many of whom mistakenly believe they can simply buy their way into permanent residency.
“They feel entitled to be mobile,” Cohn explained. “I have to tell them it’s not as easy as they think, and there’s no way to buy residency.”
Montreal resident Shanthony Exum, an artist who moved from Brooklyn during the pandemic, can attest to the difficulties. Describing the immigration process as “daunting, exhausting, and expensive,” Exum emphasizes the importance of having a genuine reason to move beyond political dissatisfaction.
“Trump’s policies are terrifying to me, but that wasn’t the reason I moved,” she said. Instead, Exum cites her longstanding love for Montreal, which helped her weather the challenges of relocating. “It’s easier to run toward something than away from something,” she advised.
While full-fledged immigration remains a formidable barrier for most Americans, Canada has historically seen spikes in refugee claims during tumultuous U.S. political periods.
Sean Rehaag, director of York University’s Centre for Refugee Studies, notes that the number of U.S. citizens claiming asylum in Canada surged dramatically when Trump first took office. From just 129 claims in 2016, the figure jumped to 869 in 2017 and 642 in 2018. These applicants were primarily children of undocumented immigrants fearing deportation due to Trump’s aggressive immigration policies.
Given Trump’s recent pledge to use the U.S. military for mass deportations if reelected, experts warn of potential increases in irregular border crossings.
“If mass deportations happen, you’re going to see a significant increase in the volume of people crossing into Canada irregularly,” Cohn said.
However, the landscape for refugee claims has shifted since Trump’s first term. The Safe Third Country Agreement (STCA), a bilateral pact between the U.S. and Canada, was expanded in 2023, making it harder for individuals coming from the U.S. to seek asylum in Canada. The agreement is based on the principle that both nations are considered safe, meaning individuals rejected for refugee status in the U.S. are unlikely to qualify in Canada.
Critics argue that the STCA fails to account for significant differences in how the two countries handle vulnerable populations. Jamie Chai Yun Liew, an immigration expert at the University of Ottawa, points out that Canada takes a more progressive stance on issues like gender-based violence and gender diversity.
“It doesn’t meet our standards for how we should be treating people,” she said, urging Canadian policymakers to reevaluate the agreement in light of Trump’s history and campaign promises.
While Trump’s rhetoric and policies have undoubtedly driven interest, Canada’s appeal extends beyond political considerations. The country is often seen as a progressive haven with universal healthcare, a robust social safety net, and a commitment to multiculturalism.
However, this idealized vision often clashes with the reality of life in Canada. From long winters to higher living costs, American newcomers face a host of challenges that can dampen their enthusiasm. Additionally, the immigration system itself favors skilled workers, students, or those with family ties to Canada, limiting opportunities for those seeking quick escapes.
Exum’s story highlights the importance of having clear motivations. After her Brooklyn landlord sold the property where she lived, she took the opportunity to make a fresh start in Montreal — a city she had long admired. Despite the difficulties, her passion for the city carried her through the process.
Experts like Bonisteel and Cohn urge Americans considering the move to educate themselves thoroughly about the immigration process and to avoid impulsive decisions driven by political despair.
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, Canada may once again find itself a focus of attention for politically disillusioned Americans. But while the dream of moving to Canada captivates many, the logistical and legal challenges mean the majority of “Canada-curious” Americans are unlikely to follow through.
Still, for those who do make the leap, the decision often goes beyond politics, rooted in personal aspirations and a desire for a better quality of life.
The recurring waves of interest in Canada reflect a broader commentary on the U.S.’s political polarization and societal challenges. Whether motivated by fear of Trump or broader discontent, the phenomenon underscores the enduring appeal of Canada as a destination for those seeking a fresh start.
While the barriers to immigration remain high, the narrative of Canada as a land of opportunity and refuge continues to resonate — a testament to its global reputation as a progressive and welcoming nation.
As the election cycle unfolds, only time will tell how many Americans take the leap from curiosity to commitment, making the arduous journey to their northern neighbor.
