In the wake of Storm Boris, Central Europe finds itself grappling with the aftermath of one of the most intense and devastating weather events in its history. The storm brought unprecedented rainfall, leading to catastrophic flooding across countries like Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, Austria, and Italy. As the death toll rises to at least 24, with damage estimates stretching into the billions, scientists and policymakers are left with a sobering realization: climate change is exacerbating these extreme weather events, and what we are seeing now may only be a preview of what’s to come for Europe, the world’s fastest-warming continent.
The Rainiest Period Ever Recorded in Central Europe
The intensity of the rainfall during Storm Boris has stunned experts. According to the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group, one particular four-day period during the storm became the rainiest ever recorded in Central Europe. This is no mere statistical anomaly. WWA scientists concluded that climate change doubled the likelihood of rainfall of this magnitude, clearly linking human-caused global warming to the unprecedented nature of this storm.
“We are living through the consequences of decades of fossil fuel burning,” said Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London and co-author of the WWA study. “This is definitely what we will see much more of in the future.”
The rain that Boris unleashed on Central Europe is what experts describe as a 100-300 year event, meaning it should only occur once in such a time frame in the current climate. However, with rising global temperatures, the WWA warns that similar rainfall episodes could become more frequent and intense in the future. If global warming reaches 2°C above pre-industrial levels, rainfall events like these could become 50% more frequent and 5% more intense. Without a concerted global effort to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the planet could warm by as much as 3°C by the end of the century, making these devastating storms a more common occurrence.
The Science Behind Climate-Driven Storms
The relationship between global warming and increased rainfall is relatively straightforward: a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, about 7% more for every 1°C of warming. This increased capacity for moisture leads to heavier, more intense rainfall. Richard Allan, a professor of climate science at the University of Reading, explains, “These weather patterns occurred in a warmer climate because of our greenhouse gas emissions, so the intensity and volume of rainfall was larger than it would have otherwise been.”
Storm Boris’s rain was not only heavier than usual, but it also lingered in certain areas for longer than expected. This ‘stalling’ phenomenon, where weather systems become stuck over specific regions, dumping massive amounts of rain in one spot, is not fully understood. There is some evidence that changes to the jet stream, the fast-flowing air currents high in the atmosphere, may be linked to climate change and could cause more frequent stalling. However, this remains a subject of ongoing research.
Regardless of whether stalled systems become more common, climate change means that when they do occur, they will carry more moisture and deliver more destructive rainfall. This adds another layer of complexity to predicting and preparing for future weather disasters.
Forecasting Saved Lives, But the Future Looks Bleak
One of the few pieces of positive news from this disaster is that Storm Boris was well forecast. Meteorologists predicted the massive rainfall days in advance, allowing authorities to prepare and implement flood defenses. Mirek Trnka of the Global Change Research Institute in the Czech Republic highlighted the importance of these forecasts in reducing the death toll: “There has been a lot of money spent after the previous two floods to [install and update] the flood defenses.”
Thanks to these early warnings, cities like Brno in the Czech Republic, where some flood defenses were still incomplete, were able to shore up vulnerable areas and mitigate the worst of the damage. Despite the heavier rain and wider geographical spread of flooding compared to previous disasters in 1997 and 2002, the death toll was significantly lower, largely due to these improved preparations.
However, the success of flood defenses in this instance may not be enough in the long run. “The severity of the flood events is going to increase considerably in the future,” warned Francesco Dottori of the University School for Advanced Studies (IUSS) in Pavia, Italy. “If you keep the flood protections at the same level as they are today, the impacts may become unbearable for societies in Europe.”
Economic Consequences: The Cost of Inaction
The financial toll of Storm Boris is staggering. The European Union has pledged €10 billion (£8.3 billion) in emergency repairs to help the affected areas recover. This is just a fraction of the longer-term cost of rebuilding homes, infrastructure, and businesses. According to climate experts, this disaster underscores the economic consequences of climate change, which will only grow more severe if immediate and ambitious actions are not taken to reduce emissions.
Dr. Otto pointed out the financial burden that extreme weather is placing on governments and societies: “It shows just how expensive climate change is.” The heavy rainfall and flooding from Storm Boris are just one example of how climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, leading to higher costs for disaster response, recovery, and infrastructure repairs.
The Climate Action Imperative
The message from scientists is clear: unless global warming is limited, extreme weather events like Storm Boris will continue to worsen. The Paris Agreement, signed by nearly 200 nations, aims to keep global warming well below 2°C, with a more ambitious target of limiting it to 1.5°C. According to Dr. Dottori, achieving the 1.5°C target could halve the future damage caused by floods compared to a scenario where emissions continue unabated.
“Our simulations show that if you are able to keep future global warming below 1.5°C, then future flood damage will be cut by half compared to the [business as usual] scenario,” he said.
Yet, despite the Paris Agreement’s goals, the world is currently on track to warm by around 3°C by the end of the century. This would significantly increase the frequency of storms like Boris, as well as other extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires. Experts warn that the failure to meet climate targets will result in a future marked by more frequent natural disasters, rising economic costs, and profound disruptions to society.
Europe’s Unique Vulnerability
Europe is the world’s fastest-warming continent. Over the past five years, temperatures in Europe have been, on average, around 2.3°C higher than the second half of the 19th century, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service. This rapid warming is leading to more frequent and intense weather events, from heatwaves in the south to heavier rainfall and flooding in northern and central Europe.
The situation in southern Europe is more complicated. While northern and central parts of the continent are experiencing more extreme rainfall, southern Europe is suffering from shifting large-scale weather patterns, leading to more frequent droughts and water shortages. This dichotomy within Europe highlights the complex ways in which climate change is reshaping the continent’s weather systems.
Preparing for an Uncertain Future
Storm Boris has provided a stark warning of what lies ahead if global warming continues unchecked. While better weather forecasting and improved flood defenses helped reduce the human toll of the disaster, the economic costs and the strain on infrastructure highlight the need for even more robust preparations.
But preparedness can only go so far. Without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, Europe—and the world—faces a future where these once-rare extreme weather events become regular occurrences. Governments must invest not only in infrastructure to protect against future storms, but also in sustainable energy solutions and policies that curb emissions and slow global warming.
The devastation caused by Storm Boris serves as a reminder that climate change is no longer a distant threat; it is happening now. As Europe confronts its role as the fastest-warming continent, the need for urgent and ambitious climate action has never been clearer. Without a significant shift in global policy and behavior, the extreme weather events that are now occurring every few decades could become part of our everyday reality. The question is no longer whether climate change is real or whether it is making storms worse—it is about how quickly humanity can adapt and take action before the costs, both human and financial, become unbearable.
