Tensions between the United States and China have flared once again, this time over allegations that the US government has been involved in fomenting a “color revolution” in Bangladesh. Chinese commentators and government officials have made these accusations, claiming that US-sponsored activists have long been promoting democratic ideologies in the South Asian nation.

The situation escalated in July when widespread protests erupted in Bangladesh, leading to violent clashes, numerous casualties, and political upheaval. These allegations form part of a broader narrative of the US attempting to destabilize countries involved in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Bangladesh, a nation of over 160 million people, has experienced significant political volatility in recent years. Since January, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League government, which has been in power for nearly 15 years, faced increasing domestic opposition. Despite winning an overwhelming majority in local elections earlier this year, Hasina’s administration has been criticized for alleged corruption, authoritarianism, and economic mismanagement.

In July, the simmering discontent boiled over when students and workers took to the streets to protest against the Hasina government. Demonstrations intensified, resulting in clashes between protesters and security forces. Reports indicate that over 300 people were killed, thousands injured, and about 10,000 arrested during these violent protests. The political unrest reached a climax when Prime Minister Hasina fled the country on August 5, subsequently resigning from her position. Following her departure, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus was appointed as the chief advisor of Bangladesh’s interim government.

Chinese Accusations of a “Color Revolution”

In a series of articles and statements, Chinese commentators have accused the US of orchestrating the unrest in Bangladesh as part of a broader strategy to weaken Chinese influence in the region. These claims, however, have been made without substantial evidence. A notable commentary published by Shi Panqi, a columnist at Guancha.cn, titled “Will the Bangladesh Syndrome Spread Across the Belt and Road Countries?” asserts that the United States played a critical role in instigating what he terms a “color revolution” in Bangladesh. Shi claims that the protests and subsequent regime change in Bangladesh were influenced by an imbalance of power among various domestic factions and external forces, primarily the US.

Shi further suggested that the “Bangladesh syndrome” could potentially spread to other South Asian countries such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal. “The long-term interference of external forces is an important reason for the political turmoil in Bangladesh,” Shi wrote. “Bangladesh has to pay the price for its increased geostrategic value.”

In another commentary, Wang Jin, an associate professor at Northwest University of China, echoed Shi’s views. Wang highlighted Prime Minister Hasina’s strong ties with China, including the signing of 20 cooperation agreements in Beijing earlier this year. He argued that the US was uncomfortable with the growing political and economic relationship between Bangladesh and China and sought to destabilize the Hasina government to gain strategic advantages in the region.

US and Its Alleged Role

Despite the severity of the accusations, Chinese commentators have not provided concrete evidence to substantiate claims of direct US involvement in Bangladesh’s internal affairs. Shi Panqi cited a statement by Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova as “evidence” of US involvement, suggesting that the US would initiate a “color revolution” if the results of Bangladesh’s upcoming parliamentary elections did not align with American interests. However, this claim remains speculative and unverified.

The allegations against the US are consistent with China’s broader criticism of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), a US-based organization that supports democratic movements worldwide. Chinese officials have often accused the NED of acting as a “second CIA,” inciting unrest in various regions, including the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and now South Asia.

Implications for the Belt and Road Initiative

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a massive infrastructure and investment project aimed at enhancing global trade and economic integration, has been a focal point of Beijing’s foreign policy. Bangladesh is a crucial partner in the BRI, with significant investments in infrastructure projects, including the development of deep-sea ports. The Matarbari Port, which is under construction and expected to be completed by 2027, is a key component of China’s strategic interests in the Bay of Bengal.

The resignation of pro-Beijing Prime Minister Hasina and the subsequent political instability in Bangladesh have raised concerns in China about the potential disruption of BRI projects. Chinese commentators have warned that the US could use its influence to establish a pro-American regime in Bangladesh, which may result in the establishment of military bases that could threaten China’s maritime transport routes.

A Beijing-based commentator, writing on August 11, argued that the success of a “color revolution” in Bangladesh could have broader implications for China’s interests in the region. The commentator pointed out that China’s deepwater port project in Kyaukphyu, Myanmar, which had already faced delays due to political instability, could also be at risk if the US continues to expand its influence in South Asia.

US-China Relations: A Widening Rift

The allegations of a US-backed “color revolution” in Bangladesh come at a time of heightened tensions between the US and China. Ahead of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s visit to Beijing, Chinese accusations have added another layer of complexity to the already strained bilateral relationship. Sullivan’s visit, scheduled from Tuesday to Thursday, marks the first time a US national security advisor will visit China since 2016. During his meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Sullivan is expected to address issues such as China’s support for the Russian defense industry, further complicating the diplomatic agenda.

Adding to the friction, the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) recently added over 400 companies and individuals, including 42 Chinese firms, to its Entity List. These entities were accused of supplying electronic components to Russia, a move that has drawn criticism from Beijing. The decision underscores the growing economic and technological competition between the two superpowers.

China Narrative on “Color Revolutions”

China’s accusations against the US regarding Bangladesh are part of a long-standing narrative in which Beijing blames Washington for orchestrating “color revolutions” to destabilize governments unfavorable to US interests. Over the years, China has accused the US of being involved in various uprisings, including the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Rose Revolution in Georgia, the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, and the Arab Spring.

In May 2022, the Chinese Foreign Ministry published a fact sheet accusing the NED of acting as a tool for US foreign policy, aimed at undermining legitimate governments and fostering pro-US factions. Zhao Lijian, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, referred to the NED as the “second CIA,” alleging that it plays a covert role in promoting US interests under the guise of supporting democracy.

Most recently, on August 9, the Chinese Foreign Ministry released a report titled “The NED: What It Is and What It Does,” which accuses the organization of meddling in the internal affairs of countries like Russia, Iran, Cuba, and Mexico, manipulating elections in Serbia, Nigeria, and the Philippines, and infiltrating Europe. The report reiterated China’s stance that the NED’s activities are aimed at cultivating pro-US forces to advance American geopolitical objectives.

The current situation in Bangladesh and the subsequent accusations by Chinese commentators must be viewed within the broader context of US-China rivalry. Both countries have been vying for influence in South Asia, a region that holds significant strategic importance due to its proximity to key maritime routes, burgeoning economies, and geopolitical significance. The US has traditionally maintained strong ties with India, Bangladesh’s neighbor, and has been cautious about China’s expanding influence in the region.

Bangladesh, on its part, has sought to balance its relations with both the US and China. While it has benefited from Chinese investments and infrastructure projects under the BRI, it has also maintained diplomatic and economic ties with the US. The recent political unrest in Bangladesh and the change in leadership could impact this delicate balance, potentially leading to a shift in the country’s foreign policy orientation.

The allegations of a US-backed “color revolution” in Bangladesh, though lacking concrete evidence, underscore the deepening mistrust between the US and China. These accusations reflect Beijing’s concerns about American influence in its strategic backyard and its determination to safeguard its interests in the Belt and Road Initiative. As the situation unfolds, the geopolitical dynamics in South Asia could witness significant shifts, with potential implications for regional stability and the global balance of power.

With the US and China continuing to accuse each other of interference and destabilization, the prospect of finding common ground appears increasingly remote. The situation in Bangladesh serves as a reminder of the complex and interconnected nature of international relations, where local events can have far-reaching consequences on the global stage. As US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan heads to Beijing, the world watches closely, anticipating whether dialogue can bridge the widening chasm between the two superpowers or whether the cycle of accusation and counter-accusation will persist, further escalating tensions.