In a landmark event that marks a significant deepening of bilateral ties, China and Indonesia are holding their first Senior Officials’ Meeting as part of the newly launched Joint Foreign and Defense Ministerial Dialogue. This high-level meeting, which commenced on Monday, underscores the strategic importance both nations place on their relationship, particularly in the context of the complex geopolitical landscape of the South China Sea.

The dialogue, hailed by analysts as a crucial step in regional diplomacy, is expected to address multiple pressing issues, including the ongoing tensions in the South China Sea—a region of strategic and economic importance that has long been a flashpoint in Southeast Asia.

The China-Indonesia Joint Foreign and Defense Ministerial Dialogue, established in 2023, is a pioneering effort by both countries to institutionalize a 2+2 ministerial framework—where both foreign and defense officials from each side meet simultaneously. This format, as noted by Qian Feng, Director of the Research Department at the National Strategy Institute at Tsinghua University, is usually reserved for nations with high levels of strategic trust and close relations.

The Senior Officials’ Meeting in Jakarta is expected to lay the groundwork for future high-level discussions, facilitating deeper cooperation on a range of issues. According to Qian, this meeting could set a precedent for similar dialogues between China and other ASEAN nations, promoting regional stability and collaboration.

South China Sea Tensions

The South China Sea remains a critical point of discussion, with its contested waters involving claims from multiple Southeast Asian nations, including China and the Philippines. The ongoing disputes, particularly between China and the Philippines, have escalated tensions in the region. The Senior Officials’ Meeting is anticipated to address these tensions, with Indonesia potentially playing a mediating role.

Chen Xiangmiao, Director of the World Navy Research Center at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, emphasizes the importance of the meeting in the context of China-ASEAN relations. He notes that the dialogue will likely focus on negotiations for the Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea, a long-discussed framework aimed at reducing the risk of conflict and ensuring freedom of navigation in the region. Both sides are expected to express their commitment to finalizing the COC, which has been in negotiation for nearly two decades.

Indonesia, as the largest country in Southeast Asia and a key member of ASEAN, is seen as a crucial player in maintaining regional stability. The nation’s strategic position and its relatively neutral stance in the South China Sea disputes give it a unique role in mediating conflicts and fostering cooperation among ASEAN member states.

Chen suggests that Indonesia’s involvement in the dialogue with China could help reinforce ASEAN’s centrality in regional security issues. By working closely with China, Indonesia could encourage other ASEAN nations to engage more constructively in the South China Sea negotiations, potentially leading to a unified ASEAN stance.

The dialogue also comes at a time when Indonesia is navigating its own foreign policy challenges, particularly with regard to maintaining balance in its relations with major powers like the United States and China. The ongoing US-China rivalry has put ASEAN countries in a difficult position, often forcing them to choose sides in the broader geopolitical contest.

One of the key concerns for Indonesia, as highlighted by Chen, is the potential impact of the Philippines’ increasingly close ties with the United States on ASEAN unity. The Philippines has been at the forefront of challenging China’s claims in the South China Sea, often with backing from Western powers. This has led to fears that ASEAN’s cohesion could be undermined if member states are drawn into the great power competition between the US and China.

Indonesia, aware of these risks, is likely to use the dialogue to advocate for a more unified ASEAN approach to the South China Sea issue. By doing so, Jakarta hopes to prevent the region from becoming a battleground for external powers and to ensure that ASEAN remains a key driver of regional security and stability.

Bilateral Cooperation Beyond South China Sea

While the South China Sea is expected to dominate discussions, the dialogue is also set to cover a wide range of other topics, reflecting the broad scope of China-Indonesia relations. Economic cooperation, particularly under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), is likely to be a major focus.

China and Indonesia have a history of strong economic ties, with China being one of Indonesia’s largest trading partners. The dialogue is expected to explore ways to further strengthen this relationship, particularly in the areas of infrastructure development, trade, and investment. Both sides are likely to discuss the progress of ongoing BRI projects in Indonesia, as well as opportunities for new initiatives.

Chen also points out that the dialogue will likely address Indonesia’s support for the One-China policy, a cornerstone of Beijing’s foreign policy. Additionally, the two sides are expected to discuss clean energy cooperation, which has become an increasingly important area of bilateral collaboration in recent years. As both nations seek to transition to more sustainable energy sources, there is significant potential for joint projects in this field.

Military cooperation between China and Indonesia is another critical area of discussion. The two countries have established a robust framework for defense exchanges, including joint exercises and personnel training. This cooperation is seen as essential for building mutual trust and enhancing security ties between the two nations.

During the recent visit of Indonesian President-elect Prabowo Subianto to Beijing, Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun highlighted the importance of deepening military cooperation. The ongoing dialogue is expected to further these efforts, with both sides likely to discuss ways to expand joint military exercises and enhance strategic communication.

Chen notes that this military cooperation serves a dual purpose: not only does it strengthen bilateral ties, but it also sends a positive signal to the wider region. As tensions continue to simmer in the South China Sea, the military cooperation between China and Indonesia could contribute to stabilizing the situation, providing a model for other ASEAN countries to follow.

China-Indonesia Relations

The outcomes of the Senior Officials’ Meeting are likely to have significant implications for both China-Indonesia relations and the broader Southeast Asian region. As China and Indonesia work towards finalizing the COC in the South China Sea, their cooperation could help to de-escalate tensions and prevent further conflicts in the region.

Moreover, the dialogue could serve as a catalyst for greater ASEAN unity. By engaging closely with China, Indonesia could help to forge a more cohesive ASEAN response to regional security challenges, ensuring that the bloc remains central to discussions on the South China Sea.

At the same time, the deepening of China-Indonesia relations could prompt other ASEAN countries to seek closer ties with Beijing, particularly if the dialogue leads to concrete outcomes such as increased economic cooperation or progress on the COC negotiations. This could, in turn, shift the regional balance of power, with ASEAN countries becoming more closely aligned with China.

However, the dialogue also highlights the challenges facing Indonesia as it navigates its foreign policy in an increasingly complex regional environment. Balancing its relations with China, the US, and other major powers will require careful diplomacy, particularly as tensions in the South China Sea continue to evolve.

The first Senior Officials’ Meeting of the China-Indonesia Joint Foreign and Defense Ministerial Dialogue marks a significant milestone in the bilateral relations between the two nations. As they work together to address the South China Sea tensions and other regional challenges, China and Indonesia are not only strengthening their own ties but also contributing to the broader stability and security of Southeast Asia.

The success of this dialogue could set the stage for further cooperation between China and ASEAN, potentially leading to a more peaceful and prosperous region. As the meeting continues, all eyes will be on Jakarta, with analysts and policymakers alike keen to see how this new chapter in China-Indonesia relations unfolds.