On Friday, July 26th, China and Russia’s foreign ministers convened with their Southeast Asian counterparts in Vientiane, Laos, amid rising geopolitical tensions and strategic recalibrations. Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, and Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, pledged to counteract “extra-regional forces” while participating in the three-day meeting of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). This gathering, which also saw the involvement of new British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, highlighted the increasingly complex dynamics in Southeast Asia as global powers jostle for influence.

On the eve of their meetings with ASEAN, Wang and Lavrov agreed to jointly resist any attempts by external forces to interfere in Southeast Asian affairs. This declaration, as reported by Moscow’s foreign ministry, underscores the shared strategic interests of China and Russia in fortifying their influence in the region. The two nations, united by their mutual apprehension towards Western intervention, aim to bolster their geopolitical clout by presenting a unified front.

Lavrov’s statement about a new security architecture in Eurasia, albeit vague, signals a potential shift towards more structured cooperation between China and Russia in the region. This partnership is further solidified by Beijing’s readiness to work closely with Moscow to safeguard each other’s core interests, as stated by Wang Yi.

China’s commitment to deepening economic ties with ASEAN was emphasized by Wang Yi during his meetings with the bloc’s foreign ministers. The burgeoning economic relationship between China and Southeast Asia is a cornerstone of Beijing’s strategy to secure its influence in the region. This economic entanglement is seen as a counterbalance to the United States’ efforts to fortify its alliances in Asia and promote a “free and open” Indo-Pacific.

However, the strategic underpinnings of China’s economic diplomacy are not lost on the international community. NATO has labeled Beijing a “decisive enabler” of Moscow’s war in Ukraine, a designation that highlights the intertwined nature of their political and military objectives.

Diplomatic Engagements and Regional Responses

The ASEAN summit in Vientiane served as a critical platform for China and Russia to engage with Southeast Asian nations. Wang Yi’s meeting with the new British Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, further underscored China’s intent to assert its presence and counterbalance Western influence in the region.

On the sidelines of the summit, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was scheduled to arrive for talks with ASEAN foreign ministers. Blinken’s visit, though shortened to attend a White House meeting, reflects the US’s strategic focus on strengthening alliances in Asia to counter China’s rising influence.

A notable interaction during the summit was the customary joint handshake, where Wang Yi stood next to Myanmar’s representative, Aung Kyaw Moe. Myanmar’s military junta, which has been banned from high-level ASEAN meetings due to the 2021 coup and subsequent crackdown on dissent, remains a contentious issue within the bloc. This symbolic gesture by China highlights its nuanced approach to regional diplomacy, balancing between supporting its allies and engaging with ASEAN.

ASEAN’s Diplomatic Balancing Act

The ASEAN foreign ministers were expected to issue a joint communique at the conclusion of the three-day meeting. However, disagreements over the wording related to the Myanmar conflict and the South China Sea disputes delayed the release. This impasse illustrates the delicate balancing act ASEAN faces in navigating the competing interests of regional powers.

The South China Sea remains a particularly contentious issue, with Beijing’s expansive claims over the waterway clashing with those of several Southeast Asian countries. Despite an international court ruling that China’s claims have no legal basis, Beijing continues to assert its dominance over this strategic maritime route, through which trillions of dollars in trade flow annually.

The convergence of China and Russia’s foreign policies in Southeast Asia has significant geopolitical implications. Their coordinated stance against external interference represents a direct challenge to US influence in the region. This alignment is likely to further complicate the strategic calculus for ASEAN countries, which have historically balanced their relations with both Western and Eastern powers.

The new security architecture proposed by Lavrov could lead to more formalized defense and security arrangements between China and Russia, potentially altering the regional security landscape. This development warrants close scrutiny by ASEAN and its partners, as it could reshape the balance of power in Eurasia and beyond.

China’s deepening economic ties with Southeast Asia are a critical component of its broader strategy to secure regional influence. Initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have already established substantial Chinese investment in infrastructure projects across the region. These investments, while beneficial for economic development, also serve to bind Southeast Asian countries more closely to Beijing, thereby enhancing China’s strategic leverage.

Conversely, the United States’ efforts to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific are aimed at countering China’s economic and strategic encroachments. Washington’s alliances with regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia are central to this strategy, providing a counterweight to China’s influence.

South China Sea: ASEAN’s Strategic Dilemma

ASEAN’s internal divisions, particularly over issues like Myanmar and the South China Sea, are compounded by the external pressures exerted by China, Russia, and the United States. The bloc’s inability to reach a consensus on these critical issues underscores the challenges it faces in presenting a united front.

Myanmar’s ongoing crisis poses a significant challenge for ASEAN. The military junta’s continued repression has not only plunged the country into turmoil but also strained ASEAN’s cohesion. The bloc’s decision to exclude the junta from high-level meetings is a testament to its disapproval of the regime’s actions, yet it also highlights the limitations of ASEAN’s influence over its member states.

The South China Sea disputes represent another flashpoint within ASEAN. China’s assertive stance and militarization of the region have escalated tensions, challenging the sovereignty of Southeast Asian claimants. The inability to reach a consensus on this issue during the ASEAN summit reflects the deep-seated divisions and the influence of external actors.

ASEAN’s response to these challenges will be crucial in determining its future role in regional affairs. A cohesive and unified ASEAN is essential for maintaining regional stability and navigating the complex geopolitical landscape.

Moving forward, ASEAN’s ability to strengthen regional cooperation and present a unified stance will be pivotal. Enhanced diplomatic engagement and collaborative initiatives can help mitigate the influence of external powers and address internal divisions. Building resilience through economic partnerships and security cooperation will be essential for ASEAN to assert its role as a central player in regional affairs.

The strategic interplay between China, Russia, and the United States will continue to shape the regional landscape. China’s economic might and strategic ambitions, coupled with Russia’s military capabilities, present a formidable challenge to Western influence. Conversely, the United States’ alliances and strategic initiatives in the Indo-Pacific are aimed at countering this growing influence.

For ASEAN, navigating this complex web of relationships will require astute diplomacy and strategic foresight. Balancing economic interests with security considerations and maintaining constructive engagement with all major powers will be essential for ensuring regional stability and prosperity.

The recent ASEAN summit in Vientiane highlighted the intricate dynamics at play in Southeast Asia. The strategic convergence of China and Russia, coupled with the United States’ efforts to bolster its alliances, underscores the region’s geopolitical significance. For ASEAN, the path forward lies in fostering unity, enhancing regional cooperation, and adeptly managing the competing interests of major powers. As the global balance of power continues to evolve, Southeast Asia will remain a pivotal arena for strategic manoeuvres and diplomatic engagements.