China has announced an immediate ban on exports of certain dual-use items to Japan that could be employed for military purposes, marking a new escalation in already strained relations between Asia’s two largest economies. The move, revealed in a statement by China’s commerce ministry on Tuesday (January 6), is widely seen as Beijing’s latest response to remarks made in early November by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi concerning Taiwan.
According to the statement, exports of dual-use goods, software, or technologies to Japanese military end-users — or for any purposes deemed to contribute to Japan’s military strength — are now prohibited. The ban applies with immediate effect, and Beijing warned that organisations or individuals from any country or region found violating the restrictions would be held legally liable under Chinese law.
Dual-use items cover a broad range of materials and technologies with both civilian and military applications. These include advanced software, precision manufacturing equipment, and certain rare earth elements that are critical for producing high-performance electronics, semiconductors, electric vehicles, and military hardware such as drones and missile guidance systems.
Beijing did not specify which products would fall under the new curbs. However, China maintains an export control list covering roughly 1,100 dual-use goods and technologies across multiple sectors. At least seven categories of medium and heavy rare earths — including samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, and lutetium — are included on that list. These materials are essential for high-end magnets, defence electronics, and next-generation chips.
Japan’s foreign ministry and trade ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment, leaving uncertainty in Tokyo over the scope and practical impact of the ban. Officials and industry groups are now assessing whether the measures will disrupt supply chains or remain largely symbolic.
Relations between Beijing and Tokyo have deteriorated steadily since Prime Minister Takaichi stated in November that a Chinese military attack on Taiwan could be considered an existential threat to Japan. China, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory, strongly rejected the remarks as “provocative,” while Taipei maintains that the island is self-governed and rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claim.
Following Takaichi’s comments, China’s foreign ministry questioned Japan’s intentions regarding Taiwan, accusing Tokyo of using the issue as a pretext to expand its military capabilities and overseas operations. The latest export ban appears to reinforce Beijing’s warning that Japan’s Taiwan-related rhetoric could carry concrete economic and strategic consequences.
Security concerns have already been heightened by Japan’s recent defence policy decisions. In late December, the Japanese cabinet approved a record spending package for the fiscal year beginning in April, including a 3.8 per cent increase in the defence budget to 9 trillion yen (about US$57.7 billion). The expansion is part of Tokyo’s broader effort to strengthen deterrence capabilities amid growing regional uncertainty.
Chinese state media have sharply criticised these developments. In a December commentary, the state-run Xinhua news agency described it as “alarming” that Japan had “drastically” adjusted its security posture in recent years. The article accused Tokyo of steadily increasing defence spending, relaxing arms export restrictions, developing offensive weapons, and even planning to abandon its long-standing three non-nuclear principles — a claim Japan strongly denies. Tokyo reaffirmed its non-nuclear pledge in mid-December.
China itself has dramatically expanded its military spending, with its annual defence budget more than doubling over the past decade. While Beijing insists its military modernisation is defensive in nature, neighbouring countries, including Japan, have expressed growing concern about China’s expanding capabilities and increasingly assertive posture in the region.
Economically, the export ban raises questions about rare earth supply security. Despite years of diversification efforts, Japan remains heavily dependent on China for these critical materials. According to estimates by macroeconomic research firm Capital Economics, China still supplies around 60 per cent of Japan’s rare earth imports.
“China has not provided a list of restricted items, so at this stage it is impossible to say what impact the export curbs will have,” an official at the Japan External Trade Organisation said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak publicly.
A Japanese government source also described the move as largely “symbolic,” suggesting that Beijing may be seeking to generate domestic political pressure within Japan. “Until now, China has avoided steps that would seriously damage Japan’s business community,” the source said. “By causing uncertainty for Japanese industry, they may be aiming to fuel criticism of Takaichi at home.”
The announcement has revived memories of a similar episode more than a decade ago, when China sharply curtailed rare earth exports to Japan during a diplomatic dispute. However, recent customs data show no immediate sign of disruption. In November — the latest month for which figures are available — China’s rare earth exports to Japan rose 35 per cent to 305 metric tonnes, the highest monthly total last year.
Nonetheless, concerns persist. A state-affiliated Chinese social media account reported earlier on Tuesday that authorities were considering tighter approvals for rare earth export licences to Japan, citing Tokyo’s “recent egregious behaviour.” Japanese firms have also reported longer approval times for export licences in recent months, though it remains unclear whether this is directly linked to the diplomatic fallout.
For now, analysts say the ban sends a strong political signal, underscoring how tensions over Taiwan, defence policy, and regional security are increasingly spilling into the economic domain — with strategic supply chains once again at the centre of East Asia’s geopolitical rivalry.
