In Beijing, the drumbeat of reunification has grown louder, with Chinese officials reiterating their longstanding vow to bring Taiwan under mainland control—by force if necessary. Western analysts, military experts, and diplomatic insiders increasingly point to 2027 as the critical year: a potential flashpoint when China could attempt a full-scale military operation against Taiwan.
Meanwhile, the United States is stepping up its countermeasures, with Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth warning that China is not only posturing but “credibly preparing” to use force. What follows is a comprehensive look at the unfolding geopolitical contest, the buildup to conflict, and the stakes for global order.
Predictions about a Chinese military move against Taiwan by 2027 are not idle speculation. The timeline has been echoed by U.S. Indo-Pacific Command officials and cited in congressional testimonies. The rationale: By 2027, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will have completed key modernization goals set by President Xi Jinping. These include enhanced amphibious capabilities, air superiority readiness, and the strategic integration of cyber and space warfare tools.
The PLA’s exercises near Taiwan over the past two years have grown in scale, complexity, and intensity. In some instances, they have simulated encirclement and blockade scenarios. Chinese state media refers to them as “reunification readiness drills.” Western defense analysts interpret them as rehearsals for war.
“Xi Jinping has made reunification a centerpiece of his ‘national rejuvenation’ vision,” says Michael Swaine, a senior fellow at the Quincy Institute. “He has also signaled that waiting indefinitely is not an option.”
At the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth delivered one of the most explicit warnings to date. “The threat China poses is real and it could be imminent,” he declared. “Beijing is credibly preparing to potentially use military force to alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.”
Hegseth’s remarks were aimed not just at China but at allies still uncertain about their role in a possible regional conflict. He reaffirmed U.S. commitments to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act, which obligates the U.S. to help Taiwan defend itself, even if it stops short of promising direct military intervention.
“The United States is here to stay,” he said, calling on regional allies to “quickly upgrade their own defenses.”
The U.S. has already ramped up joint exercises with Japan and the Philippines. A trilateral missile defense pact is reportedly under negotiation, and Washington is deploying more stealth bombers and submarines to the Pacific. A senior U.S. official, speaking anonymously, called it “the most significant repositioning of American military assets in Asia since the Cold War.”
The conflict over Taiwan is also deeply tied to the technological and economic rivalry between the U.S. and China. Since January, the Trump administration has widened its crackdown on Chinese access to AI chips, quantum computing hardware, and high-end semiconductors—many of which are made in Taiwan.
“The semiconductor race is the 21st century’s oil war,” says Marsha Kellogg, a tech analyst at the Brookings Institution. “Control of Taiwan’s chipmaking capacity is both a strategic and economic prize.”
In parallel, Trump’s administration has escalated its tariff war against Beijing. Talks to ease trade tensions collapsed in May after Trump accused China of “totally violating” prior agreements. Beijing, for its part, blames Washington for “sabotaging” trust and “weaponizing” trade.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said China continues to “choke off” access to critical minerals, vital for clean energy and military tech. “We’re not seeing meaningful behavioral change in Beijing,” Greer told CNBC.
Taiwan is not the only flashpoint. China’s aggressive claims in the South China Sea—through which more than 60 percent of global maritime trade flows—are intensifying regional anxieties. Despite a 2016 Hague tribunal ruling that rejected China’s claims, Beijing continues to construct and militarize artificial islands.
In recent months, Chinese and Filipino vessels have collided repeatedly in contested waters. The Philippine Coast Guard released footage of Chinese ships using water cannons and lasers to harass their crews. Manila has invoked its mutual defense treaty with the United States more than once in the past year.
Casey Mace, charge d’affaires at the U.S. embassy in Singapore, said the South China Sea would be “front and center” at the Shangri-La Dialogue. “This is a forum where hard truths must be exchanged,” Mace said.
In Taipei, President Lai Ching-te has vowed not to bow to Beijing’s pressure. “We are a sovereign nation,” he told reporters after a recent PLA flyover. “Our democracy, our freedom, and our way of life are not negotiable.”
Taiwan has accelerated its defense reforms, including extending mandatory military service and investing in asymmetric warfare tactics such as drone swarms and coastal missile batteries. Civilian training for potential urban warfare has also increased.
“We cannot match the PLA’s size,” says Major General Hsu Yu-ping of Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, “but we can make any invasion prohibitively costly.”
Notably absent from this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue was any senior Chinese defense official. Beijing instead sent mid-level representatives from the PLA’s National Defense University, a move interpreted by many as symbolic defiance.
A Chinese foreign ministry statement accused the U.S. of “interference, encirclement, and provocation,” saying it would take “all necessary measures” to protect its sovereignty.
European allies are watching closely. NATO’s new Indo-Pacific coordination center in Hawaii is set to go operational in late 2025. While not directly involved, countries like Germany and France are increasing naval patrols in the region to signal support for international law and freedom of navigation.
Any military conflict over Taiwan would be catastrophic. A 2024 RAND Corporation war game estimated that even a limited confrontation could kill tens of thousands in the first week, crash global markets, and trigger massive supply chain disruptions.
China’s economy could face ruinous sanctions, while the U.S. would risk entanglement in its first large-scale war with a nuclear peer. The possibility of escalation to nuclear conflict—though low—is not zero.
“There are no good outcomes,” says Admiral William Dwyer, retired U.S. Pacific Fleet commander. “There’s deterrence, and then there’s disaster.”
So what’s the off-ramp? Diplomats urge re-engagement, confidence-building, and new arms control frameworks. Others argue that only hard power can prevent Beijing from acting on its threats.
“Peace through strength is not just a slogan,” Hegseth said in Singapore. “It’s the only language some regimes understand.”
But deterrence is only effective if the other side believes you’ll act on your threats. For now, the world is watching a precarious chess match unfold—each move raising the stakes, and the risks.
China’s rhetoric on Taiwan is no longer abstract. With military preparations visibly underway, U.S. officials are no longer guessing—they’re preparing. The Indo-Pacific is now the epicenter of a brewing geopolitical storm.
