Due to the ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea, China conducted intensive sea and air combat drills near the contentious Scarborough Shoal on Wednesday. This area—an expanse of reefs and rocks west of the Philippines’ Luzon Island—has been a persistent flashpoint in China-Philippines relations since China seized control of the shoal in 2012. The drills come just days after China published new geographic baselines for the shoal, a move aimed at reinforcing its claim and jurisdiction over the territory.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theater Command described the drills as a lawful “patrol and guard activity,” further emphasizing Beijing’s stance on its sovereignty over the area. “This is a patrol and guard activity carried out by the theater troops in accordance with the law,” the command stated briefly, underscoring the legitimacy it attaches to its actions in the shoal and the surrounding waters.
These drills follow China’s recent release of new baselines for Scarborough Shoal, which include specific geographic coordinates that outline its territorial claims. In maritime law, baselines mark the point from which a nation measures its territorial waters, as well as its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). By setting these baselines, China is signaling that it considers Scarborough Shoal and its adjacent waters to be within its domain, a position that challenges the Philippines’ longstanding claims to the same area.
Scarborough Shoal has remained under Chinese control since a 2012 standoff with the Philippines. In the years since, Beijing has restricted access to the shoal for Filipino fishermen, who rely on the area for their livelihoods. Despite a 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague, which declared China’s extensive claims in the South China Sea invalid under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Beijing has refused to acknowledge the decision. Instead, China has reinforced its presence in the region, constructing artificial islands, bolstering naval infrastructure, and deploying coast guard vessels and surveillance ships to enforce its claims.
For the Philippines, Scarborough Shoal is a traditional fishing ground and part of its claimed EEZ. However, under Chinese control, Filipino access to these waters has been sharply limited, fueling a sense of injustice and escalating bilateral tensions.
Amid China’s actions in the South China Sea, the Philippines has taken steps to assert its own territorial claims. Last week, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed two new laws that reaffirm the extent of the country’s maritime zones, underscoring the Philippines’ rights to resources within these waters, including in areas that overlap with China’s claims. This legislative move provoked an immediate response from Beijing, which voiced its disapproval and asserted that the laws would not alter the “reality” of Chinese control over Scarborough Shoal and other disputed areas.
Marcos’ decision reflects a strategic pivot in the Philippines’ approach to its maritime disputes with China. By codifying its maritime boundaries, the Philippines is underscoring its commitment to protecting its interests in the South China Sea, aligning with both the 2016 PCA ruling and international maritime law. This assertion has put the Philippines in direct opposition to China, further escalating the regional power struggle.
Scarborough Shoal is more than just a collection of reefs and rocks—it has immense strategic value for both China and the Philippines. For China, the shoal lies at a critical point in the South China Sea, granting it potential control over crucial sea lanes and offering a military advantage in one of the world’s most geopolitically sensitive regions. The shoal is only about 120 nautical miles from Luzon, one of the Philippines’ major islands, which places it well within the Philippines’ 200-mile EEZ under international maritime law.
Control over Scarborough Shoal would enable China to further consolidate its claims over the South China Sea, which is a significant conduit for global trade, with nearly $3 trillion worth of goods passing through annually. Furthermore, securing the shoal could bolster China’s strategic “Nine-Dash Line” claim, which forms the basis of its sweeping assertion of sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea. This claim overlaps with EEZs claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia, making it a matter of regional—and indeed global—concern.
The “Nine-Dash Line,” a demarcation introduced by China in the mid-20th century, is the foundation of Beijing’s assertion that it has historical rights over the majority of the South China Sea. However, the international community, including the PCA, has largely rejected this basis for China’s claims, viewing it as inconsistent with UNCLOS. Despite this, China has continued to enforce the claim through naval and coast guard patrols, artificial island-building, and now, with the establishment of new baselines for areas like Scarborough Shoal.
This stance has drawn criticism and concern from other claimant countries, as well as from the United States, which advocates for the “freedom of navigation” in international waters. The U.S. has conducted “freedom of navigation” operations (FONOPs) in the South China Sea, deploying naval ships to sail through areas claimed by China to emphasize that these waters are international. These operations, intended to push back against China’s territorial assertions, have only further exacerbated tensions in the region.
Incidents of confrontation between Chinese and Philippine vessels have become increasingly common in recent years. In August, Chinese coast guard ships reportedly used water cannons to deter Filipino vessels attempting to deliver supplies to troops stationed on Second Thomas Shoal, another disputed feature in the South China Sea. While no injuries were reported, the encounter drew widespread condemnation and was viewed as an example of China’s aggressive tactics in enforcing its claims.
Such confrontations illustrate the tangible risks of escalation in the South China Sea. With multiple nations laying claim to overlapping areas and with China’s coast guard adopting increasingly assertive measures to reinforce its position, any miscalculation or accidental clash could quickly spiral into a larger conflict. For the Philippines, which has one of the weaker navies among claimant countries, these incidents underscore the significant challenges it faces in defending its maritime rights.
The international community has responded to China’s actions with a combination of diplomatic pressure and calls for restraint. The United States, a long-standing ally of the Philippines, has repeatedly affirmed its commitment to defending its treaty ally if attacked in the South China Sea. This defense pledge has taken on added importance as tensions rise, with the U.S. conducting joint exercises with the Philippines and other regional allies in a show of strength and solidarity.
Additionally, the Philippines has strengthened its own alliances within the region. In recent years, Manila has enhanced its security cooperation with Japan, Australia, and other Southeast Asian nations, signaling a united front against unilateral moves in the South China Sea. These partnerships aim not only to deter Chinese aggression but also to underscore the importance of upholding international law and the 2016 PCA ruling.
China’s continued military buildup in the South China Sea is reshaping the region’s security landscape. From constructing military outposts on artificial islands to deploying advanced surveillance technology and missile systems, Beijing has invested heavily in ensuring that it can maintain a dominant presence in the contested waters. This buildup gives China a significant operational advantage over other claimants, especially in the context of its rapidly modernizing navy, which now boasts the world’s largest fleet.
For countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia, China’s expanded presence complicates their ability to access and develop resources within their EEZs. This dynamic has created an atmosphere of distrust and raised concerns that China is using “gray zone” tactics—a strategy that falls below the threshold of open conflict but uses intimidation and coercion to achieve its goals.
Beyond the strategic and military considerations, the South China Sea is also rich in natural resources. It is believed to contain vast reserves of oil and natural gas, as well as a biodiverse marine ecosystem that supports millions of people in Southeast Asia. For nations like the Philippines, access to these resources is essential to both their energy security and their economy. However, China’s restrictions on fishing and its activities on disputed features have led to significant ecological damage, impacting fish stocks and coral reefs.
The Philippines, which has seen its traditional fishing grounds increasingly restricted by China’s maritime activities, faces economic hardships for its coastal communities. Filipino fishermen, long dependent on areas like Scarborough Shoal, now face harassment and are often unable to access their fishing grounds, impacting their livelihoods and food security.
